Analysis

10/19/23

12 min read

2023 NFL Week 7: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 7.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 7 Matchups

Jaguars vs. Saints

4th Down Decisions: Jaguars 28th, Saints 21st

Injury concerns mar the Thursday night game as Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee sprain. He was limited in practice the last two days but claimed he will “do everything he can” to play. 

Not having Lawrence would be challenging for the Jacksonville Jaguars because the New Orleans Saints boast the No. 1 pass coverage unit in Total Points Per Play. Additionally, the Jaguars rank 25th in red zone EPA per play, while the Saints’ defense ranks sixth. 

Even without a 100 percent healthy Lawrence, this game will be an uphill climb for the Jaguars’ offense.

Lions vs. Ravens

4th Down Decisions: Lions 17th, Ravens 26th

A battle between two divisional leaders is shaping up to be a weather game in Baltimore, with wind expected to be 20 mph and with gusts up to 38 mph. 

Based on Total Points, this would be an advantage for the Detroit Lions, who have the better rushing attack and run defense by Total Points. However, all three Lions running backs are on the injury report. David Montgomery is most likely out with a rib injury, Craig Reynolds didn’t practice with an ailing toe and Jahmyr Gibbs is limited with a hamstring. 

Conversely, the Baltimore Ravens are returning from London, where they kicked five field goals in the red zone. Forecasted weather, a bad Lions injury report and a struggling Ravens offense are all factors as to why the game’s betting total has dropped from 45 down to 42.5.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers

4th Down Decisions: Falcons 8th, Buccaneers 31st

This is a divisional clash with the surprising Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on an upstart Atlanta Falcons team looking to get a spark from its quarterback. But Desmond Ridder has not taken the step many projected. 

He’s thrown the sixth most interceptions in the league, and his 70 percent on-target percentage ranks sixth-worst among 35 quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. Additionally, he has the lowest Passing Total Points at -10.5. 

On the other side, Baker Mayfield has turned back the clock to the 2020 season, ranking eighth in Passing Total Points Per Play and ninth in adjusted net yards per attempt. 

However, the Buccaneers’ offense has benefitted from positive third down variance, ranking second in third-down EPA per play but only 24th in early-down EPA per play. 

Commanders vs. Giants

4th Down Decisions: Commanders 19th, Giants 29th

The Washington Commanders and New York Giants will play for the first time this season, and all eyes will be on the trenches when the Giants have the ball. 

On defense, the Commanders are tied for sixth in sacks with 19 and have the 11th-most pressures. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are in the top 15 in pressures and might feast against a Giants offensive line that has been an abject disaster. 

The group is last in Blocking Total Points, last in blown block percentage (4.15 percent), last in pressure percentage allowed (46 percent) and so on. An injury to Andrew Thomas’ hamstring in Week 1 didn’t help the cause. 

Making matters worse, 2022 first-round pick Evan Neal ranks as the sixth-worst offensive lineman in Total Points. The Giants need to build momentum after a heartbreaking loss to the Bills, but New York will have to do so against a stout Commanders defensive line.     

Raiders vs. Bears

4th Down Decisions: Raiders 30th, Bears 14th

The Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears will play in what is shaping up to be a game of backup quarterbacks. 

Justin Fields is doubtful with a dislocated thumb, meaning Tyson Bagent will get his first NFL start. Against the Vikings, he went 10-for-14 with 83 yards and an interception. This time, he will face a Raiders defense starring Maxx Crosby, who is second in the league in pressures with 35 and seventh in sacks with 5.5. 

Jimmy Garoppolo did not practice on Wednesday after suffering a back injury that required him to go to the hospital during the game. After his injury, Brian Hoyer took over and went 6-for-10 with 102 yards passing.

Expect an ugly offensive struggle here.

Bills vs. Patriots

4th Down Decisions: Bills 12th, Patriots 22nd

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are coming off disappointing efforts. Even though the Bills won, they only scored 14 points against a struggling Giants team. 

Josh Allen arguably had his worst performance of the season, only completing 63.3 percent of his passes and generating 169 yards through the air.

The Patriots continued to struggle on offense against the Raiders. After DeVante Parker dropped a deep ball on the previous play, Mac Jones took a safety to seal the game. 

Overall, the Patriots are last in EPA per play and are 1-5 for the first time in the Bill Belichick era. They now face Buffalo, which ranks seventh in EPA per play allowed on defense and third in pressure rate at 41.4 percent.

Browns vs. Colts

4th Down Decisions: Browns 7th, Colts 25th

As it turns out, Deshaun Watson’s injury is a rotator cuff issue and not a simple contusion. His playing status for Sunday is still in the air because of it. 

Without Watson and the Cleveland Browns’ elite RB Nick Chubb, they still defeated the 49ers, who many believe to be the NFL’s best team. 

This can be attributed to how good the Browns’ defense has been, ranking first in both run defense and pass rush. Against a wall like this in the run game, Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis Colts’ only option is attacking through the air. 

The Colts’ 7.2 average depth of target ranks 25th, and their 19.4 percent boom play percentage ranks 19th, something that might need to increase if they’re going to have success against this Browns defense.

Steelers vs. Rams

4th Down Decisions: Steelers 32nd, Rams 11th

The Pittsburgh Steelers come out of the bye 3-2 and in second place in the AFC North. You wouldn’t believe that if you strictly saw this team on offense. They rank 30th in EPA per play, 32nd in the red zone, 32nd in Passing Total Points Per Play and 31st in Blocking Total Points Per Play. 

Aside from a few big plays, they have not moved the ball effectively this season. They get an easier test against a Los Angeles Rams defense that ranks 20th in EPA per play and struggles to generate pressure, ranking 26th.

The fun matchup will be the Rams’ offense against the Steelers’ defense. Matthew Stafford has this Rams offense heading back in the right direction, and the return of Cooper Kupp came at a good time. 

The Rams are fourth in EPA per play, and Kupp has already posted two 100-yard receiving games. This will be a test for a Steelers secondary that ranks 14th in Pass Coverage Total Points.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

4th Down Decisions: Cardinals 1st, Seahawks 24th

The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks meet in a divisional matchup after both teams lost last week. The Seahawks won the box score matchup against the Bengals (70-53 in plays, 384-214 in yards) but could not get the ball past the goal line. 

The Seahawks now rank 27th in EPA per play in the red zone. They’ll look to improve that against a Cardinals defense that ranks 21st in the red zone. 

Devon Witherspoon has been a huge help to this Seahawks secondary. He ranks third in Pass Coverage Total Points. Jordyn Brooks (1st) and Bobby Wagner (3rd) are in the top three in Run Defense Total Points. 

This will be a big test for a Cardinals offense that only scored nine points against the Rams last week.

Chargers vs. Chiefs

4th Down Decisions: Chargers 18th, Chiefs 27th

Games between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs never disappoint. Five of the last six matchups have been one-score games, with two of those contests going to overtime. 

Once again, both teams are in the top 10 in EPA per play on offense (Chiefs fifth, Chargers eighth), but the difference is between the defenses. 

In EPA per play on defense, the Chiefs rank fifth, while the Chargers rank 27th. Kansas City’s starting corners, Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed, rank in the top 15 in Pass Coverage Total Points (McDuffie ranks 1st). 

Patrick Mahomes will look to exploit a Chargers secondary that ranks 27th in Pass Coverage Total Points. However, the Chargers boast a pass rush ranking first in sacks per game at 4.2. They’ve done that with the 16th-highest pressure rate. 

Packers vs. Broncos

4th Down Decisions: Packers 3rd, Broncos 15th

The Green Bay Packers come into this game off a bye after losing two in a row. They are middling in offense and defense, ranking 19th and 22nd in EPA per play. 

The Denver Broncos are worse in both, ranking 23rd and 32nd. The Broncos’ defense has been so bad they are allowing twice the EPA per play of the Cardinals, who rank 31st. If the Packers are going to turn it around offensively, this is the game to do it.

Dolphins vs. Eagles

4th Down Decisions: Dolphins 23rd, Eagles 2nd

This game will be a fun one. Two of the most aggressive teams in the league regarding play-calling meet Sunday night. 

The Miami Dolphins come in with the most explosive offense in the league, ranking in the top five in Passing and Rushing Total Points Per Play. The Philadelphia Eagles' defense ranks in the top five in Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points Per Play. Still, the unit has struggled to stop the pass, ranking 23rd in Pass Coverage Total Points.

The Eagles offense, specifically Jalen Hurts, has not been firing on all cylinders. Hurts threw three picks against the Jets, and the last one cost the Eagles the game. It might behoove them to feed D’Andre Swift as much as possible, given that the Dolphins have the No. 30 run defense in Total Points. Plus, it would limit the available time for the Dolphins offense.

49ers vs. Vikings

4th Down Decisions: 49ers 5th, Vikings 10th

For the first time this year, the San Francisco 49ers are coming off a loss. Brock Purdy finally looked human, going 12 for 27 with 125 yards and an interception. With a banged-up Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, the 49ers will be short-handed in some capacity. 

Playing a Minnesota Vikings defense that ranks 21st in EPA per play and 30th in Pass Coverage Total Points comes at a good time for the banged-up 49ers. 

This article was written by James Weaver. 

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Sports Info Solutions

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