Analysis
10/12/23
5 min read
2023 NFL Week 6 Betting Preview: New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
Giants (1-4) at Bills (3-2)
Spread: Bills -14
Total: 44.5
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest opened as Bills -14.5. It has since fallen to Bills -14.
The total for this matchup was 46.5 points, but that’s fallen to 44.5 points.
Bills Offense vs. the Giants Defense
Josh Allen is a perennial MVP candidate whose offense has scored at least 37 points in three of his five games. He’ll face a New York Giants defense that has been league-average against the pass.
That statement is slightly misleading because New York has four decisive losses this year. That’s one reason the Giants have allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs.
James Cook has been the Buffalo Bills’ primary runner, leading the team with 61 carries. Cook is a speedster who is a factor in the passing game. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray have nearly split carries behind Cook.
Stefon Diggs is again in the top 10 in every significant receiving category. He and Gabe Davis are tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with five. Diggs remains the top option in Buffalo’s passing attack, but Davis has been an excellent complement.
Speedster Deonte Harty is a distant third among Bills wide receivers in all major categories. Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid might miss this contest, which could lead to some role expansion for Dawson Knox.
Giants Offense vs. the Bills Defense
Outside of a second-half explosion against Arizona, Daniel Jones hasn’t done much this season. Much of that can be pinned on the Giants’ struggles in pass protection. The foundation of their offensive line, LT Andrew Thomas, is still missing practice as of this writing.
Even if Thomas plays, the Bills’ pass rush will have a trench advantage. Jones’ status is in doubt, as he didn’t return last week after suffering a neck injury. If Jones can’t play, Tyrod Taylor takes over. Taylor brings some mobility, but the former Bill is a mediocre passer.
Saquon Barkley has missed three games and might continue that streak. If Barkley can go, Buffalo has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs.
The other glimmer of hope for New York is that Buffalo’s two best defenders, CB Tre’Davious White and LB Matt Milano, will miss this contest. Barkley and TE Darren Waller are the Giants' two best playmakers on offense. Both of them could exploit the void left by Milano.
New York’s wide receiver room has been handled as a rotation early this season. Wan’Dale Robinson returned to action in Week 3, where he saw five targets despite limited playing time. In each of the last two games, Robinson’s role has grown.
Darius Slayton leads Giants’ wide receivers in snaps and routes run, and Isaiah Hodgins is second in both categories. Rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt has a minor role, but he could be the most dangerous player in this group.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Giants at Bills
The Bills are coming from an unprecedented situation where they traveled to London to play a Jaguars team already there for a week. That’s why we’re treating Buffalo’s loss last week as a non-event.
With that in mind, there are many reasons to bet on Buffalo to win by distance. The first is that New York has already lost four games by more than 14 points. Allen’s Bills have three wins, all of which came in blowouts. Buffalo is a better, more reliable team than New York in virtually every way.
Allen’s passing attack can hang 30-plus points on New York. Buffalo could run for 200 yards against the Giants, too. The Bills’ pass rush could derail this game regardless of who New York starts at quarterback. All three of those factors could realistically happen in a best-case scenario for Bills’ bettors.
If you’re betting on the Giants, you are betting on this team turning into something they haven’t been through the first five games. Three primary factors can lead to that type of result.
The first is that Buffalo is coming off the abnormal trip overseas to London, a mildly negative variable they have that the Giants do not. The second is if Barkley and Waller play, they have exploitable matchups against the Bills injury-reduced linebacker group. The last one is that New York is well-coached, and they are desperate. You don’t need New York to win. You just need them to keep this game close.
Score Prediction: Bills 34, Giants 3
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 13-12
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 11-9
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
