Analysis
9/20/23
13 min read
2023 NFL Week 3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings
We’re only two weeks into our fantasy season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t rankings that need to be updated. In fact, we update our dynasty rankings every single week to give you advantages that your league-mates do not even realize until weeks later.
Miller’s Week 2 Dynasty Rankings
Quarterback Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks
| 4 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks
| 6 | Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks
| 9 | Anthony Richardson | Indianapolis Colts |
| 10 | Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 11 | Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins |
| 12 | Justin Fields | Chicago Bears |
| 13 | Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers |
| 14 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 15 | C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick
| 16 | Kirk Cousins | Minnesota Vikings |
| 17 | Daniel Jones | New York Giants |
| 18 | Russell Wilson | Denver Broncos |
| 19 | Jared Goff | Detroit Lions |
| 20 | Geno Smith | Seattle Seahawks |
| 21 | Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers |
| 22 | Derek Carr | New Orleans Saints |
Tier Eight
Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick
| 23 | Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers |
| 24 | Mac Jones | New England Patriots |
| 25 | Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Tier Nine
Value Estimation: Mid-Second-Round Pick
| 26 | Sam Howell | Washington Commanders |
Tier 10
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 27 | Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 28 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams |
| 29 | Jimmy Garoppolo | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 30 | Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans |
| 31 | Desmond Ridder | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier 11
Value Estimation: Late Third-Round Pick
| 32 | Zach Wilson | New York Jets |
| 33 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | Cleveland Browns |
| 34 | Trey Lance | San Francisco 49ers |
| 35 | Sam Darnold | San Francisco 49ers |
| 36 | Tyler Huntley | Baltimore Ravens |
| 37 | Will Levis | Tennessee Titans |
| 38 | Malik Willis | Tennessee Titans |
| 39 | Aaron Rodgers | New York Jets |
| 40 | Aidan O’Connell | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 41 | Gardner Minshew | Indianapolis Colts |
Big QB Movers
Deshaun Watson, Browns – 10th (Previously 8th)
Before Deshaun Watson was away from football for nearly two years, he posted seasons of 27, 24 and 23.8 fantasy points per game. He had passing peripherals that were among the top of the league. That included never having an adjusted yards per attempt below 7.7 and a touchdown rate below 5.1 percent.
When he returned for six games last season, his passing peripherals were way down. For the most part, that was chalked up to him being away from the sport for a long time and learning a new offense. But now, after a full offseason to learn the system, he’s posting an adjusted yards per attempt of 4.9 and a touchdown rate of just 2.9 percent.
While there is still upside, the panic is starting to set in.
Justin Fields, Bears – 12th (Previously 11th)
Justin Fields has been one of the best rushing quarterbacks available. He tied Lamar Jackson’s 10.8 rushing points per game record last season, but there is a major flaw in Fields’ profile. His passing peripherals are near the bottom of the league for his rookie and second year.
That is likely why we saw Jackson’s rushing record season lead to more than 30 fantasy points per game, while Fields’ rushing record season had him hardly inside the top-12 quarterbacks.
In his third year, one filled with the hope he could make the needed passing leap, he’s started his first two games with just 11.5 passing points per game, a three percent touchdown rate and five adjusted yards per attempt.
Running Back Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks
| 1 | 21.6 Years Old | Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks
| 2 | 21.5 Years Old | Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | 22.3 Years Old | Breece Hall | New York Jets |
| 4 | 27.3 Years Old | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers |
| 5 | 24.6 Years Old | Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 6 | 26.6 Years Old | Saquon Barkley | New York Giants |
| 7 | 28.3 Years Old | Austin Ekeler | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 8 | 26.4 Years Old | Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 9 | 24.6 Years Old | Travis Etienne | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 10 | 25.6 Years Old | Josh Jacobs | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 11 | 25.5 Years Old | Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots |
| 12 | 22.9 Years Old | Kenneth Walker III | Seattle Seahawks |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick
| 13 | 23.4 Years Old | Javonte Williams | Denver Broncos |
| 14 | 28.1 Years Old | Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints |
| 15 | 27.1 Years Old | Joe Mixon | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 16 | 24.0 Years Old | James Cook | Buffalo Bills |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 17 | 29.7 Years Old | Derrick Henry | Tennessee Titans |
| 18 | 28.8 Years Old | Aaron Jones | Green Bay Packers |
| 19 | 24.5 Years Old | Brian Robinson | Washington Commanders |
| 20 | 25.5 Years Old | Najee Harris | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 21 | 23.6 Years Old | Dameon Pierce | Houston Texans |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick
| 22 | 24.7 Years Old | D’Andre Swift | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 23 | 28.3 Years Old | James Conner | Arizona Cardinals |
| 24 | 24.7 Years Old | Rachaad White | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 25 | 26.4 Years Old | Miles Sanders | Carolina Panthers |
| 26 | 22.7 Years Old | Zach Charbonnet | Seattle Seahawks |
| 27 | 23.0 Years Old | Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams |
| 28 | 26.3 Years Old | David Montgomery | Detroit Lions |
| 29 | 21.9 Years Old | De’Von Achane | Miami Dolphins |
| 30 | 24.5 Years Old | Isiah Pacheco | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 31 | 25.2 Years Old | Alexander Mattison | Minnesota Vikings |
| 32 | 23.4 Years Old | Tyler Allgeier | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Eight
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 33 | 24.0 Years Old | Jerome Ford | Cleveland Browns |
| 34 | 22.6 Years Old | Roschon Johnson | Chicago Bears |
| 35 | 22.2 Years Old | Tyjae Spears | Tennessee Titans |
| 36 | 21.3 Years Old | Kendre Miller | New Orleans Saints |
| 37 | 22.0 Years Old | Tank Bigsby | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 38 | 31.4 Years Old | Raheem Mostert | Miami Dolphins |
| 39 | 24.2 Years Old | Cam Akers | Los Angeles Rams |
| 40 | 24.8 Years Old | Jaylen Warren | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 41 | 28.4 Years Old | Jamaal Williams | New Orleans Saints |
| 42 | 25.4 Years Old | AJ Dillon | Green Bay Packers |
| 43 | 25.4 Years Old | Elijah Mitchell | San Francisco 49ers |
| 44 | 27.7 Years Old | Nick Chubb | Cleveland Browns |
| 45 | 28.1 Years Old | Dalvin Cook | New York Jets |
| 46 | 28.4 Years Old | Gus Edwards | Baltimore Ravens |
| 47 | 24.5 Years Old | Kenneth Gainwell | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 48 | 28.0 Years Old | Samaje Perine | Denver Broncos |
| 49 | 25.2 Years Old | Antonio Gibson | Washington Commanders |
| 50 | 25.4 Years Old | Khalil Herbert | Chicago Bears |
| 51 | 26.6 Years Old | Damien Harris | Buffalo Bills |
| 52 | 26.0 Years Old | Devin Singletary | Houston Texans |
| 53 | 21.9 Years Old | Sean Tucker | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Big RB Movers
Tony Pollard, Cowboys – 8th (Previously 12th)
While Tony Pollard was expected to take over the rushing workload in Dallas, it wasn’t expected he would be off to such a great start as a receiver. His 17.5 percent target share is third among all running backs. Targets have a higher susceptibility to fantasy points than carries do.
Pollard posting a more than 50 percent carry percentage, along with his ability in the receiving game, means it looks like his 19.1 fantasy points per game are here to stay.
James Cook, Bills – 16th (Previously 26th)
Through four seasons at Georgia, James Cook never even posted a 25 percent carry percentage. In his first season in the NFL, Cook also didn’t post a 25 percent carry percentage.
It’s also not as if he was some world-beater in the receiving game, either: His career-high target share across his collegiate and professional career was just 7.8 percent. Because previous workload is the biggest predictor of future workload, it’s hard to make a projection that gives Cook a high-end fantasy finish.
Yet through the first two games of his second season, he’s posting a 50.9 percent carry percentage and a 12.8 percent target share, leading to 15.1 fantasy points per game. Not to mention, his 2.96 yards per team rush attempt and 0.68 yard per team pass attempt shows he’s been efficient with that workload, as well.
Nick Chubb, Browns – 44th (Previously 11th)
It’s truly awful to see one of the game’s best, if not the best, running back go down with a major injury. Nick Chubb took a brutal hit to his knee on Monday night. This will cause Chubb to miss at the very least a full year, and at nearly 28 years old, the future looks bleak.
Wide Receiver Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Ja’Marr Chase | Cincinnati Bengals |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys |
| 4 | A.J. Brown | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints |
| 6 | DeVonta Smith | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 7 | Garrett Wilson | New York Jets |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 8 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Detroit Lions |
| 9 | Drake London | Atlanta Falcons |
| 10 | Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick
| 11 | Tyreek Hill | Miami Dolphins |
| 12 | Stefon Diggs | Buffalo Bills |
| 13 | Davante Adams | Las Vegas Raiders |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Mid-First-Round Pick
| 14 | Jaylen Waddle | Miami Dolphins |
| 15 | DK Metcalf | Seattle Seahawks |
| 16 | Brandon Aiyuk | San Francisco 49ers |
| 17 | Jordan Addison | Minnesota Vikings |
| 18 | Calvin Ridley | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 19 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seattle Seahawks |
| 20 | Zay Flowers | Baltimore Ravens |
| 21 | Quentin Johnston | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 22 | Cooper Kupp | Los Angeles Rams |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick
| 23 | Deebo Samuel | San Francisco 49ers |
| 24 | Michael Pittman Jr. | Indianapolis Colts |
| 25 | Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 26 | Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers |
| 27 | George Pickens | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 28 | D.J. Moore | Chicago Bears |
| 29 | Puka Nacua | Los Angeles Rams |
| 30 | Marquise Brown | Arizona Cardinals |
| 31 | Christian Kirk | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 32 | Amari Cooper | Cleveland Browns |
| 33 | Chris Godwin | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 34 | Treylon Burks | Tennessee Titans |
| 35 | Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions |
| 36 | Nico Collins | Houston Texans |
| 37 | Terry McLaurin | Washington Commanders |
| 38 | Jerry Jeudy | Denver Broncos |
| 39 | Jahan Dotson | Washington Commanders |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 40 | Keenan Allen | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 41 | Mike Evans | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 42 | Mike Williams | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 43 | DeAndre Hopkins | Tennessee Titans |
| 44 | Michael Thomas | New Orleans Saints |
| 45 | Tyler Lockett | Seattle Seahawks |
Tier Eight
Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick
| 46 | Jayden Reed | Green Bay Packers |
| 47 | Jakobi Meyers | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 48 | Marvin Mims | Denver Broncos |
| 49 | Elijah Moore | Cleveland Browns |
| 50 | Rashee Rice | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 51 | Courtland Sutton | Denver Broncos |
| 52 | Darnell Mooney | Chicago Bears |
| 53 | Brandin Cooks | Dallas Cowboys |
| 54 | Kadarius Toney | Kansas City Chiefs |
Tier Nine
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 55 | Rashod Bateman | Baltimore Ravens |
| 56 | Rashid Shaheed | New Orleans Saints |
| 57 | Gabriel Davis | Buffalo Bills |
| 58 | Wan’Dale Robinson | New York Giants |
| 59 | Skyy Moore | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 60 | Jonathan Mingo | Carolina Panthers |
| 61 | Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts |
| 62 | Jalin Hyatt | New York Giants |
| 63 | Tank Dell | Houston Texans |
| 64 | Romeo Doubs | Green Bay Packers |
| 65 | Alec Pierce | Indianapolis Colts |
| 66 | John Metchie | Houston Texans |
| 67 | Kendrick Bourne | New England Patriots |
| 68 | Tutu Atwell | Los Angeles Rams |
| 69 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | New England Patriots |
| 70 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | Cleveland Browns |
| 71 | Tyler Boyd | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 72 | Allen Lazard | New York Jets |
| 73 | Rondale Moore | Arizona Cardinals |
| 74 | Odell Beckham Jr. | Baltimore Ravens |
| 75 | Curtis Samuel | Washington Commanders |
| 76 | Zay Jones | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 77 | Darius Slayton | New York Giants |
| 78 | Tyquan Thornton | New England Patriots |
Big WR Movers
Puka Nacua, Rams – 29th (Previously 43rd)
We’ve never seen a wide receiver start the first two weeks of his career with as many targets as Puka Nacua has. He joins Justin Jefferson as the only receivers with at least 20 points per game without scoring a touchdown in 2023. It has been an absolutely historic start for Nacua, but it’s one that leaves him with one of the widest range of outcomes we’ve ever seen.
We’ve seen high-end fantasy production in small samples from wide receivers before — but not from a fifth-round rookie at the start of his career. There is major upside with Nacua, but there is also plenty of downside. At what point should we buy into his range of outcomes?
Treylon Burks, Titans – 34th (Previously 23rd)
Treylon Burks came into his rookie season as a first-round “elite” prospect, meaning he had a high hit rate. While his rookie numbers didn’t pop, his per-route numbers showed plenty of promise: a 21.3 percent target rate and 1.75 yards per route run.
Unfortunately, two weeks into his second-year campaign, he’s posting a measly 12.7 percent target rate and 1.71 yards per route run. It’s still early in the season, but these numbers show an already uphill battle in an offense that throws the ball at a near-league-low rate.
Nico Collins, Texans – 36th (Previously 52nd)
Nico Collins showed some promise in his first two seasons. After two games this season, hitting the Calvin Ridley outcome seems more plausible than ever. Collins is posting a 25.3 percent target rate and 2.86 yards per route run, leading to more than 20 points per game, the seventh-highest among all wide receivers.
If those peripherals continue, while C.J. Stroud improves, Collins could be one of the biggest risers in dynasty.
Tight End Rankings
Tier One
Value Estimation: Two First-Round Picks
| 1 | 28.0 Years Old | Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | 33.9 Years Old | Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs |
Tier Two
Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick
| 3 | 22.9 Years Old | Kyle Pitts | Atlanta Falcons |
Tier Three
Value Estimation: First-Round Pick
| 4 | 26.2 Years Old | T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings |
Tier Four
Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick:
| 5 | 22.7 Years Old | Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions |
| 6 | 23.9 Years Old | Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills |
| 7 | 22.9 Years Old | Luke Musgrave | Green Bay Packers |
Tier Five
Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick
| 8 | 31.0 Years Old | Darren Waller | New York Giants |
| 9 | 30.0 Years Old | George Kittle | San Francisco 49ers |
| 10 | 24.9 Years Old | Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 11 | 28.7 Years Old | Dallas Goedert | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 12 | 29.1 Years Old | Evan Engram | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 13 | 27.2 Years Old | David Njoku | Cleveland Browns |
| 14 | 21.2 Years Old | Michael Mayer | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 15 | 23.5 Years Old | Greg Dulcich | Denver Broncos |
Tier Six
Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick
| 16 | 23.8 Years Old | Trey McBride | Arizona Cardinals |
| 17 | 24.5 Years Old | Cole Kmet | Chicago Bears |
| 18 | 25.0 Years Old | Jelani Woods | Indianapolis Colts |
| 19 | 24.0 Years Old | Chigoziem Okonkwo | Tennessee Titans |
| 20 | 25.0 Years Old | Luke Schoonmaker | Dallas Cowboys |
| 21 | 22.1 Years Old | Darnell Washington | Pittsburgh Steelers |
Tier Seven
Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick
| 22 | 32.9 Years Old | Zach Ertz | Arizona Cardinals |
| 23 | 28.8 Years Old | Hunter Henry | New England Patriots |
| 24 | 27.2 Years Old | Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans |
| 25 | 27.0 Years Old | Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints |
| 26 | 25.1 Years Old | Irv Smith Jr. | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 27 | 29.2 Years Old | Gerald Everett | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 28 | 24.6 Years Old | Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys |
| 29 | 25.8 Years Old | Noah Fant | Seattle Seahawks |
| 30 | 28.0 Years Old | Mike Gesicki | New England Patriots |
| 31 | 23.4 Years Old | Isaiah Likely | Baltimore Ravens |
Big TE Movers
Luke Musgrave, Packers – 7th (Previously 15th)
In 2022, there were only three tight ends to post at least a 13 percent target share on an average depth of target of at least 12 yards. Those tight ends were Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Greg Dulcich.
In Luke Musgrave’s first two games, at a position where production takes longer to achieve, he’s posting a 13.5 percent target share on a 12.9 average depth of target. The Green Bay Packers are also giving Musgrave plenty of opportunity right away. He is one of just 12 tight ends this season with an at least 80 percent route percentage.
We’re only two games into Musgrave’s career, and the fantasy upside is already tantalizing.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers – 10th (Previously 5th)
Pat Freiermuth was one of just 18 tight ends to start their careers with back-to-back 20 percent target rates.
Yet, he’s starting off 2023 with a target rate below 10 percent and yards per route run below 0.1. While it’s quite likely this is just the case of a poor two-game sample, it is worrisome that even with Diontae Johnson sidelined with an injury, Freiermuth is struggling to earn targets.
Having 4.8 fantasy points per game isn’t ideal for a tight end who showed promise of a third-year breakout.
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