Analysis

9/20/23

13 min read

2023 NFL Week 3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

By Ian Miller

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We’re only two weeks into our fantasy season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t rankings that need to be updated. In fact, we update our dynasty rankings every single week to give you advantages that your league-mates do not even realize until weeks later.

Miller's Week 2 Dynasty Rankings

Quarterback Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Four 

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Mid-Second-Round Pick

Tier 10

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Tier 11

Value Estimation: Late Third-Round Pick

Big QB Movers

Deshaun Watson, Browns – 10th (Previously 8th)

Before Deshaun Watson was away from football for nearly two years, he posted seasons of 27, 24 and 23.8 fantasy points per game. He had passing peripherals that were among the top of the league. That included never having an adjusted yards per attempt below 7.7 and a touchdown rate below 5.1 percent.

When he returned for six games last season, his passing peripherals were way down. For the most part, that was chalked up to him being away from the sport for a long time and learning a new offense. But now, after a full offseason to learn the system, he's posting an adjusted yards per attempt of 4.9 and a touchdown rate of just 2.9 percent.

While there is still upside, the panic is starting to set in.

Justin Fields, Bears – 12th (Previously 11th)

Justin Fields has been one of the best rushing quarterbacks available. He tied Lamar Jackson’s 10.8 rushing points per game record last season, but there is a major flaw in Fields' profile. His passing peripherals are near the bottom of the league for his rookie and second year.

That is likely why we saw Jackson’s rushing record season lead to more than 30 fantasy points per game, while Fields' rushing record season had him hardly inside the top-12 quarterbacks.

In his third year, one filled with the hope he could make the needed passing leap, he’s started his first two games with just 11.5 passing points per game, a three percent touchdown rate and five adjusted yards per attempt. 

Running Back Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big RB Movers

Tony Pollard, Cowboys – 8th (Previously 12th)

While Tony Pollard was expected to take over the rushing workload in Dallas, it wasn’t expected he would be off to such a great start as a receiver. His 17.5 percent target share is third among all running backs. Targets have a higher susceptibility to fantasy points than carries do.

Pollard posting a more than 50 percent carry percentage, along with his ability in the receiving game, means it looks like his 19.1 fantasy points per game are here to stay.

James Cook, Bills – 16th (Previously 26th)

Through four seasons at Georgia, James Cook never even posted a 25 percent carry percentage. In his first season in the NFL, Cook also didn’t post a 25 percent carry percentage.

It’s also not as if he was some world-beater in the receiving game, either: His career-high target share across his collegiate and professional career was just 7.8 percent. Because previous workload is the biggest predictor of future workload, it’s hard to make a projection that gives Cook a high-end fantasy finish.

Yet through the first two games of his second season, he’s posting a 50.9 percent carry percentage and a 12.8 percent target share, leading to 15.1 fantasy points per game. Not to mention, his 2.96 yards per team rush attempt and 0.68 yard per team pass attempt shows he’s been efficient with that workload, as well.

Nick Chubb, Browns – 44th (Previously 11th)

It’s truly awful to see one of the game’s best, if not the best, running back go down with a major injury. Nick Chubb took a brutal hit to his knee on Monday night. This will cause Chubb to miss at the very least a full year, and at nearly 28 years old, the future looks bleak.

Wide Receiver Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Mid-First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big WR Movers

Puka Nacua, Rams – 29th (Previously 43rd)

We’ve never seen a wide receiver start the first two weeks of his career with as many targets as Puka Nacua has. He joins Justin Jefferson as the only receivers with at least 20 points per game without scoring a touchdown in 2023. It has been an absolutely historic start for Nacua, but it's one that leaves him with one of the widest range of outcomes we’ve ever seen.

We’ve seen high-end fantasy production in small samples from wide receivers before — but not from a fifth-round rookie at the start of his career. There is major upside with Nacua, but there is also plenty of downside. At what point should we buy into his range of outcomes?

Treylon Burks, Titans – 34th (Previously 23rd)

Treylon Burks came into his rookie season as a first-round "elite" prospect, meaning he had a high hit rate. While his rookie numbers didn't pop, his per-route numbers showed plenty of promise: a 21.3 percent target rate and 1.75 yards per route run.

Unfortunately, two weeks into his second-year campaign, he’s posting a measly 12.7 percent target rate and 1.71 yards per route run. It’s still early in the season, but these numbers show an already uphill battle in an offense that throws the ball at a near-league-low rate. 

Nico Collins, Texans – 36th (Previously 52nd)

Nico Collins showed some promise in his first two seasons. After two games this season, hitting the Calvin Ridley outcome seems more plausible than ever. Collins is posting a 25.3 percent target rate and 2.86 yards per route run, leading to more than 20 points per game, the seventh-highest among all wide receivers.

If those peripherals continue, while C.J. Stroud improves, Collins could be one of the biggest risers in dynasty.

Tight End Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: Two First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: Premium First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick:

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big TE Movers

Luke Musgrave, Packers – 7th (Previously 15th)

In 2022, there were only three tight ends to post at least a 13 percent target share on an average depth of target of at least 12 yards. Those tight ends were Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Greg Dulcich.

In Luke Musgrave’s first two games, at a position where production takes longer to achieve, he’s posting a 13.5 percent target share on a 12.9 average depth of target. The Green Bay Packers are also giving Musgrave plenty of opportunity right away. He is one of just 12 tight ends this season with an at least 80 percent route percentage.

We’re only two games into Musgrave’s career, and the fantasy upside is already tantalizing. 

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers – 10th (Previously 5th)

Pat Freiermuth was one of just 18 tight ends to start their careers with back-to-back 20 percent target rates.

Yet, he’s starting off 2023 with a target rate below 10 percent and yards per route run below 0.1. While it’s quite likely this is just the case of a poor two-game sample, it is worrisome that even with Diontae Johnson sidelined with an injury, Freiermuth is struggling to earn targets.

Having 4.8 fantasy points per game isn’t ideal for a tight end who showed promise of a third-year breakout.

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Ian Miller

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Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.