Fantasy
12/30/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 17: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
WEEK 17 HIGHER/LOWER ENTRIES
Jack Campbell HIGHER than 5.5 tackles and assists, Dak Prescott HIGHER than 285.5 passing yards, CeeDee Lamb HIGHER than 4.5 first downs, Kerby Joseph HIGHER than 4.5 tackles and assists and Jake Ferguson HIGHER than 3.0 first downs
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The Detroit Lions visit the Dallas Cowboys in week 17’s only Saturday game. With an implied team total of 29.5, the Cowboys should feast on the Lions’ weak pass defense. This season, Detroit ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in dropback success rate allowed and dropback expected points added (EPA). If the Cowboys’ offense has even more success than the market expects, multiple parts of the Cowboys’ passing attack could exceed their projections.
When the Cowboys’ passing game has success against the Lions, it will likely come through funneling targets to CeeDee Lamb. Moving the ball enough for Dak Prescott to record at least 286 passing yards makes Lamb more likely than not to have at least five first downs. Additionally, Jake Ferguson becomes more likely to record first down or touchdown receptions when the offense succeeds through the air.
The Lions' defensive backs and linebackers will see increased tackle opportunities in game scripts where the Cowboys’ offensive players exceed their projections. With Lamb and Ferguson seeing significant work over the middle of the field, linebacker Jack Campbell and safety Kerby Joseph are each more likely to have more total tackles than their projections indicate.
Lucas Havrisik HIGHER than 2.5 made extra points, Bobby Okereke HIGHER than 8.0 tackles and assists and Kyren Willians HIGHER than 26.5 rushing yards vs Saquon Barkley
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As the Los Angeles Rams try to cement their playoff hopes against the newly eliminated New York Giants, an opportunity for the Rams to establish their rushing attack and dominate time of possession is available. The Giants rushing defense ranks 26th in EPA and 25th in success rate allowed, in addition to having a below-average pass defense by both metrics.
The Rams will likely successfully move the ball through the air and on the ground. Importantly, when their offense has enough cumulative success, it will force the Giants’ offense to abandon their rushing attack. Unless the Giants’ offense can keep pace with the Rams, Saquon Barkley will see fewer carries as the Rams score more points.
When the Rams successfully field drives throughout the game, kicker Lucas Havrisik is likely to make at least three extra points. Similarly, the Rams’ offensive success creates more tackle opportunities for Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke. In the Giants’ 10 losses, Okereke has more than eight tackles seven times.
Jack Jones HIGHER than 3.5 tackles and assists, Michael Pittman Jr. HIGHER than 6.5 receptions, Aidan O’Connell LOWER than 217.5 passing and rushing yards, Nate Hobbs HIGHER than 5.0 tackles and assists and Nick Cross LOWER than 5.5 tackles and assists.
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As the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Indianapolis Colts in a matchup with playoff implications, there is an opportunity to bet on the Colts’ passing game to have more success than the Raiders’ aerial attack. Under new coach Antonio Pierce, the Raiders rush defense has been the best in the league by EPA and eighth by success rate.
Before Michael Pittman Jr.’s concussion, he had recorded at least eight receptions in six consecutive games. The Colts are more likely to succeed through the air than on the ground. As such, in games where Pittman records seven or more receptions, cornerbacks Nate Hobbs and Jack Jones become more likely to exceed their tackle projections.
The Raiders’ offense ideally wants to feature their running game, even if Josh Jacobs misses another game. The Colts’ defense should not deter Pierce from his run-heavy approach, as the Colts’ passing defense ranks 13th in dropback EPA and 15th in dropback success rate, whereas their rush defense ranks 24th and 28th, respectively.
Unless Aidan O’Connell connects with his receivers on multiple big plays, or the Raiders are down so much that they must throw to stay in the game, he is unlikely to record at least 218 passing and rushing yards. As O’Connell throws for fewer yards, Colts’ safety Nick Cross becomes less likely to record at least six total tackles.
