Betting
12/30/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 17 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Nico Collins Receiving Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
TOP WEEK 17 PLAYER PROPS
Nico Collins OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet
In 11 games before his Week 14 calf strain (from which he seems to be recovered), Nico Collins was 7-4 to the over. He was averaging 90 receiving yards per game in that span. There’s no more Tank Dell to compete with for targets (Collins played with Dell those first 11 games), and the Titans are a pass funnel defense. Twenty wide receivers have reached 60 receiving yards vs. Tennessee this year in only 15 games.
Bet by: Larky
C.J. Stroud OVER 257.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds -115 on DraftKings
C.J. Stroud has beaten this in eight of 13 games. One of those losses was his NFL debut in Baltimore, and another came when he suffered a concussion. I’ve had this Week 17 game circled for a long time. If you can pass protect against Tennessee, you can shred them through the air. The Texans need to win, so they’ll be highly motivated. It’s a December dome game on top of it.
Bet by: Reynolds
Chris Olave OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet
Chris Olave has gone over this number in eight of 14 games (57 percent) on the season. He has at least 114 receiving yards in three of his past four. Tampa Bay allows 194 receiving yards per game to wide receivers (most in the NFL). I also laddered Olave to reach 75 yards and 100 yards on Bet365, at +130 and +320 odds, respectively.
Bet by: Larky
Derek Carr OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Derek Carr has beaten this number seven times. When the Saints and Buccaneers played earlier this year, he had 37 attempts against Tampa Bay since you have to throw on the Buccaneers to beat them. I’m interested in over 240.5 passing yards, too. However, this attempts number has fewer paths to failure.
Bet by: Reynolds
Gardner Minshew to Throw an Interception
Best Odds: +130 on DraftKings
Gardner Minshew has thrown a pick in seven of his past 10 games. The Raiders have forced an interception in nine of their past 12 games. This is a bet on the Raiders pass rush, and what has become a top-10 overall defense since Antonio Pierce took over as the Raiders head coach.
Bet by: Larky
Geno Smith to Throw an Interception
Best Odds: +114 on DraftKings
Geno Smith has thrown an interception in seven of 13 games. He’s faced four premium pass rush groups this season (Dallas, San Francisco, Baltimore and Cleveland), throwing a pick against all of them. Smith is on my list of pressure-sensitive quarterbacks, and now he faces TJ Watt and the Steelers pass rush. My concern is that the Seahawks' defense wins this game on its own against Mason Rudolph.
Bet by: Reynolds
Jared Goff to Throw an Interception
Best Odds: -120 on FanDuel
Jared Goff has only cleared this line in one of his last five games. But in that span, he still has five turnover-worthy plays. On the season, he has struggled when facing defenses with playmaking potential. Goff’s pass attempt line is at 35.5 for good reason; Detroit has to throw the ball to have a shot in this game. Goff has thrown an interception in five of his nine games with at least 35 pass attempts.
Bet by: Rungta
James Cook UNDER 65.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on BetMGM
Although the Buffalo Bills might be run-heavy in a positive game script early on, this line is an overreaction. James Cook ranks No. 32 among all running backs in yards created per touch and is heavily reliant on Buffalo’s elite offensive line play; in fact, six of Cook's eight “overs” on this line have come against bottom-10 run-stop win-rate defenses.
Now, the Bills match up against a New England Patriots defense that ranks No. 5 in run-stop win rate on the season and No. 2 in rush EPA per play allowed since they came off their bye. Overall, we probably need at least 17 carries for Cook to challenge this number.
Still, there are plenty of reasons aligning to suggest that might not happen—Allen's increase in designed runs, New England playing better, forcing Buffalo to throw the ball, and the presence of both Latavius Murray and Leonard Fournette. This line for Cook is a tall task.
Bet by: Rungta
Curtis Samuel OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
It is unclear who will start at quarterback for the Washington Commanders but either way, this line is way too low against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has struggled to stop players out of the slot. Here are some players with a prominent role out of the slot against San Francisco since their bye:
- Christian Kirk: 6 receptions, 104 receiving yards
- Chris Godwin: 6 receptions, 39 receiving yards
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 2 receptions, 41 receiving yards
- Isaiah Likely: 3 receptions, 56 receiving yards
Whether Washington starts Sam Howell (who has an established connection with Curtis Samuel already) or Jacoby Brissett (who peppers Samuel with targets at a higher rate), we should witness a negative game script from the get-go and a pass-heavy environment. Samuel is clearly back to being a full part of the offense now and has at least a 70% route participation in four straight games, making this line disrespectful.
Bet by: Rungta
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