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2023 NFL Week 17 Fantasy Football Projections

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) reacts after a play against the Baltimore Ravens in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

At The 33rd Team, we use machine learning to project player performance and fantasy  production week-to-week to help you make well-informed decisions about your lineups. In last week’s article, we were notably higher than consensus on Nick Mullens (finished QB11) and Amari Cooper (finished WR1) while we were notably lower than consensus on Brock Purdy (finished QB34), James Cook (finished RB45) and De’Von Achane (finished RB51).

Below, you can find the model’s projections for Week 17 by position. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and PPR leagues and their projected rank. Some short commentary is provided for some notable players for whom the model is well ahead of consensus.

Disclaimer: We do not recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.

Week 17 Projections


TeamPlayerAttCompYardsTDsRushesYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts3221.8259.41.910.749.10.725.525.5
Kansas City ChiefsPatrick Mahomes38.826.2305.12.43.924.50.122.922.9
Buffalo BillsJosh Allen36.925.8269.
Dallas CowboysDak Prescott33.824.5285.
San Francisco 49ersBrock Purdy30.221.2312.
Los Angeles RamsMatthew Stafford36.322.5310.
Chicago BearsJustin Fields36.723235.41.37.639.80.318.718.7
Minnesota VikingsJaren Hall38.521.4246.72.21.713.1017.917.9
Baltimore RavensLamar Jackson28.318.4194.
Los Angeles ChargersEaston Stick35.620.5257.11.45.327017.117.1
Washington CommandersJacoby Brissett43.427.2244.71.63.721.60.116.416.4
Houston TexansC.J. Stroud33.920.4220.
Green Bay PackersJordan Love33.220.8227.21.83.814.20.116.516.5
Cincinnati BengalsJake Browning36.422.8211.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield33.121.3223.
Carolina PanthersBryce Young38.922.4234.71.62.414015.215.2
Arizona CardinalsKyler Murray29.919.4198.
Detroit LionsJared Goff35.623.2243.
Seattle SeahawksGeno Smith32.320.2234.
New Orleans SaintsDerek Carr3522.8246.
Atlanta FalconsTaylor Heinicke33.419.5228.
Tennessee TitansWill Levis33.320.8247.
Miami DolphinsTua Tagovailoa33.520.9223.81.60.720.114.314.3
Indianapolis ColtsGardner Minshew34.720.8219.
Denver BroncosJarrett Stidham31.318.8178.31.91.810.6014.314.3
Cleveland BrownsJoe Flacco35.320.3200.
Pittsburgh SteelersMason Rudolph34.719.9226.
Jacksonville JaguarsC.J. Beathard35.420.3203.
New York GiantsTyrod Taylor30.919.3203.
Las Vegas RaidersAidan O'Connell3018200.
New England PatriotsBailey Zappe35.820.6162.911.850.19.69.6
New York JetsTrevor Siemian3018.8150.

Jake Browning (QB14)

Just a week after getting embarrassed at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, we recommend streaming Jake Browning against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is capable of giving up the big play. With Ja’Marr Chase in line to play in Week 17, the Cincinnati Bengals' offense could be in for a massive bounce back in a potentially close divisional matchup. Browning could post 275-plus passing yards for the fifth straight week as Cincinnati's starter and has the ability to throw for multiple touchdowns again to put him as a QB1 in Championship Week.

Bryce Young (QB16)

Although this year's draft's No. 1 overall pick has had a largely disappointing season so far, fantasy managers shouldn’t hold grudges if they need a deep streamer. Bryce Young gets a fantastic matchup against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense capable of giving up huge plays by the dozen, and since Carolina has changed its head coach, Young is being unleashed with deeper throws downfield, opening up the potential for a QB1-finish when it matters the most.

Running backs

PlayerRushesYardsTDsTargetsRecYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
Christian McCaffrey18.893.61.364.662.60.226.829.1
Kyren Williams16.581.
Travis Etienne20.988.
Jonathan Taylor23.9101.
D'Andre Swift16.689.
Alvin Kamara15.949.80.375.949.
Rachaad White1770.
Breece Hall17.358.40.464.533.70.114.516.7
Jahmyr Gibbs10.350.
Joe Mixon1354.90.45.5433.90.214.316.3
Kenneth Walker III18.980.
Austin Ekeler13.456.
Derrick Henry17.561.
Tony Pollard19.
Bijan Robinson15610.353.
Isiah Pacheco15.575.10.32.9219.40.213.314.2
Saquon Barkley18.
Aaron Jones15.
Gus Edwards16.459.50.81.41120.112.613.1
Raheem Mostert14.575.
Ezekiel Elliott17.
Javonte Williams11.9460.34.73.521.80.312.213.9
James Conner15.470.
David Montgomery14.762.80.61.618.7011.411.9
Jaylen Warren10.655.
James Cook14.453.
Ty Chandler14.357.
Chuba Hubbard16.
Zamir White17.372.
Najee Harris10.644.
Devon Achane7.944.
Devin Singletary1142.
Jerome Ford10.640.
Antonio Gibson7.328.
Tyjae Spears7.330.90.24.2324.108.19.6
Samaje Perine4.115.703.93.435.
D'Onta Foreman7.631.
Kareem Hunt7.927.
Jerick McKinnon5.
Tyler Allgeier932.
Brian Robinson Jr.1140.502.21.516.106.77.5
Khalil Herbert5.523.
Justice Hill6.622.
Royce Freeman3.8160.
A.J. Dillon5.
Kenneth Gainwell3.917.
Roschon Johnson5.518.
Jaleel McLaughlin314.
Chase Brown4.3200.12.71.812.30.155.9
Zach Charbonnet3.815.
Joshua Kelley5.3210.11.81.310.
Miles Sanders4.817.
D'Ernest Johnson2.9130.
Dameon Pierce3.
Leonard Fournette3.
Alexander Mattison5.526.10.100003.53.5
Matt Breida2.610.
Ameer Abdullah1.99.301.
Cordarrelle Patterson310.801.
Latavius Murray3.310.
Pierre Strong Jr.3.313.
Jamaal Williams5.
Salvon Ahmed28.
Dalvin Cook2.510.
Elijah Mitchell2.380.
Rhamondre Stevenson000.300001.91.9
Kendre Miller0.
Boston Scott1.
Isaiah Spiller1.35.900.90.6301.61.9

Tony Pollard (RB12)

One of the biggest disappointments of the early rounds of fantasy football in 2023, Tony Pollard has failed to produce big plays or touchdown spikes consistently enough to be a trustworthy week-to-week start. However, in Week 17, he gets a Detroit Lions defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL over the last few weeks.

The Cowboys could explode into one of the season's highest-scoring performances, which could allow them to use Pollard at the goal line or in bulk with a positive game script, especially with backup running back Rico Dowdle out. Don’t be surprised if Pollard has his biggest fantasy performance of the season on Saturday’s primetime game during Championship Week.

Wide Receivers

PlayerTargetsRecYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
CeeDee Lamb10.17.4110.80.719.723.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown10.77.8101.80.517.121
Mike Evans9.15.389.20.514.817.5
Cooper Kupp9.
Tyreek Hill10.97.6750.614.618.5
Stefon Diggs96.274.70.614.117.2
A.J. Brown8.85.975.70.613.916.9
DJ Moore10.
Nico Collins8.55.577.80.513.516.2
Deebo Samuel64.454.80.313.415.6
Justin Jefferson10.66.969.10.513.316.8
DK Metcalf8.94.7780.513.215.5
Rashee Rice8.76.1670.51316.1
Brandon Aiyuk64.674.40.512.915.2
DeAndre Hopkins9.2577.40.412.615.1
Noah Brown7.65.4710.412.415.1
Chris Olave9.65.572.40.312.114.9
DeVonta Smith7.
Puka Nacua8.24.771.20.411.914.3
Terry McLaurin9.86.762.90.411.815.2
Brandin Cooks5.94.471.70.411.814
Chris Godwin8.35.361.30.511.814.4
Adam Thielen9.35.859.40.41113.9
Davante Adams8.34.555.60.510.813.1
Curtis Samuel8.
Jerry Jeudy6.34.760.20.310.612.9
Tyler Lockett6.54.653.60.510.512.8
Calvin Ridley7.24.858.40.310.212.6
Ja'Marr Chase8.24.855.40.410.112.5
Drake London85.451.60.39.912.6
Demarcus Robinson6.43.663.80.39.711.5
Josh Downs8.74.854.60.39.511.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.
Rashid Shaheed6.13.757.70.29.411.2
Zay Flowers7.
Jayden Reed5.
Jakobi Meyers6.83.752.60.39.111
Elijah Moore8.84.739.
George Pickens6.93.650.
Tee Higgins7.34.448.60.3911.2
Garrett Wilson95480.38.911.4
Diontae Johnson7.84.551.20.38.911.2
Jordan Addison6.
Romeo Doubs5.8440.40.48.410.4
Odell Beckham Jr.6.43.948.
Wan'Dale Robinson6.23.937.
Jonathan Mingo7.
Gabe Davis4.62.837.
Demario Douglas6.33.939.
Robert Woods5.93.434.
Khalil Shakir4.62.841.
DJ Chark4.93.1400.26.88.4
Darius Slayton4.
Quentin Johnston5.
Parker Washington5.
Justin Watson5.83340.26.47.9
Michael Wilson4.52.9400.16.27.6
Marquise Brown5.22.734.
Jahan Dotson4.32.829.
Robbie Chosen5.
DeVante Parker5.
Trey Palmer42.624.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine4.22.330.50.35.97
Rondale Moore4.52.826.
Jameson Williams3.61.622.
Zay Jones4.4324.60.35.57
Alec Pierce3.52.332.
K.J. Osborn3.92.3170.45.46.5
Tyler Boyd5.53.324.
Josh Reynolds3.
Rashod Bateman3.52.429.
Jalen Tolbert4.22.426.60.256.2
Jalen Guyton5.32.7220.356.4
Jalin Hyatt3.91.833.
Greg Dortch3.72.727.
Michael Gallup2.51.831.
Darnell Mooney3.71.8260.24.75.6
Kalif Raymond3.
JuJu Smith-Schuster4.5322.60.14.56
Marvin Mims Jr.3.11.924.
Xavier Gipson32.115.40.145
Treylon Burks3.31.722.
D.J. Montgomery3.51.913.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1.9120.
Brandon Powell3.92.514.
Jauan Jennings1.
Trenton Irwin1.81.313.
Hunter Renfrow2.31.612.
Deonte Harty1.
Nelson Agholor1.4112.
Kadarius Toney10.
Isaiah Hodgins2.
Allen Robinson1.719.
DeAndre Carter0.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR15)

Will Levis is back under center for the Tennessee Titans; that is the pitch for starting DeAndre Hopkins for all the marbles in Week 17. Hopkins averages an absurd 141.5 air yards per game with Levis under center and now faces a Texans defense that ranks No. 23 in dropback EPA per play allowed since coming off its bye and lists seven starters as questionable.

Additionally, as covered in a separate article regarding contract incentives in 2023, Hopkins also is near some monetary milestones for the regular season and it would be fitting if he cleared them with a week to spare against his former team. The elite opportunity and soft matchup give Hopkins a WR1 ceiling, making him an auto-start in all formats.

Curtis Samuel (WR25)

There is some concern about who is starting at quarterback for the Washington Commanders. However, regardless of who it is, Curtis Samuel is a high-potential FLEX play in Week 17. Washington should be in a pass-heavy environment as heavy underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers and will need to attack San Francisco’s primary weakness—defense against the slot. Samuel is a full part of the offense and carries WR2-tier potential in Week 17.

Tight Ends

PlayerTargetsRecYardsTDsFantasy PointsFantasy Points (PPR)
Evan Engram8.15.94122.2140.4143.3
Travis Kelce9.77.675.10.514.618.4
Dalton Kincaid8.36.457.50.511.714.9
Trey McBride8.2670.70.211.514.5
George Kittle64.662.70.411.113.4
Jake Ferguson6.84.352.20.510.612.8
Sam LaPorta7.15.354.10.410.413.1
David Njoku9.75.8490.410.213.1
Gerald Everett7.14.654.80.41012.3
Dalton Schultz6.84.444.70.49.311.5
Cole Kmet7.35.641.40.49.212
Darren Waller6.94.849.
Dallas Goedert5.6451.
Josh Oliver7.74.637.10.48.310.6
Kyle Pitts74.643.50.2810.3
Logan Thomas6.54.638.70.37.910.1
Tucker Kraft5.82.933.
Cade Otton53.3310.36.48
Jonnu Smith53.531.80.26.38
Isaiah Likely4.
Juwan Johnson6.13.630.
Chigoziem Okonkwo5.83.830.60.267.9
Durham Smythe5.43.629.90.267.7
Hunter Henry4.52.822.
Noah Gray2.92.330.
Tyler Higbee4.52.924.
Pat Freiermuth4.52.826.
Colby Parkinson42.622.
Tyler Conklin3.82.726.
Tommy Tremble4.92.917.
Tanner Hudson3.62.719.
Adam Trautman3.12.316.40.23.95
Mike Gesicki2.71.514.
Kylen Granson2.
Will Dissly1.
Austin Hooper1.
Daniel Bellinger1.51.112.7022.6
Taysom Hill0.
Irv Smith Jr.

Josh Oliver (TE14)

With T.J. Hockenson ruled out in Week 17, Josh Oliver will step in as the Minnesota Vikings’ starting tight end. Despite the worries of a new starting quarterback for Minnesota, Oliver carries upside as a potential red zone target. The Packers have been downright mediocre defensively all season long, and Las Vegas still projects a close game on Sunday Night Football. That makes Oliver worth a look as a tight end streamer for championship week.

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