Betting
12/27/23
7 min read
Tracking NFL End-of-Season Contract Incentives for Mayfield, Clowney, More
A large chunk of NFL contracts are structured in layers, and when the contracts are reported, the layers aren't immediately specified to the public. Contract incentives, small or large, are important to keep track of for fantasy and betting purposes because players and their teammates may be aware of key milestones for an extra payday, even if reaching them has no specific impact on the remaining games.
Below, we have outlined the most relevant contract incentive milestones to look for in the final two weeks of the regular season, with some commentary for prop bettors, based on an offseason article compiled by The 33rd Team's Ari Meirov.
Players Still With End-of-Season Contract Incentives
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If Baker Mayfield finishes the regular season ranked in the top 10 or top five in conference passer rating, passing touchdowns, passing yards, completion percentage and/or yards per pass attempt, he will receive a $300,000 incentive per category — for a maximum of $1.5 million in bonuses.
His current ranks are as follows:
- Passer rating: No. 9 in the NFL, No. 5 in the conference
- Passing touchdowns: Tied No. 8 in the NFL, Tied No. 4 in the conference
- Passing yards: No. 12 in the NFL, No. 7 in the conference
- Completion percentage: No. 17 in the NFL, No. 8 in the conference
- Yards per attempt: No. 12 in the NFL, No. 7 in the conference
Mayfield is set to face the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers — and the Buccaneers are playing for the NFC South title, currently one game ahead of the Falcons and Saints.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Alexander Mattison needs at least 750 rushing yards for a $250,000 incentive. He is at 659. So even though second-year RB Ty Chandler has taken over as the lead back on Minnesota's depth chart, Mattison could get a chance to clear his incentive benchmark over the next couple of weeks.
Mattison also has an additional $250,000 benchmark for 1,000 rushing yards, but it would be unrealistic to expect him to get to that threshold in just two games (against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions).
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler has contract incentives with a team component. The Los Angeles Chargers must be outside the bottom five in the league in average net yards gained per rushing play. If they do so, Ekeler must finish the regular season with at least 1,125 scrimmage yards for a $100,00 incentive — and at least 10 touchdowns for a $150,000 incentive. He currently sits at 965 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns, and the Chargers rank 27th (sixth-worst in yards per rush).
Provided Los Angeles doesn't fall into the bottom five, Ekeler has a shot at both bonuses. He would need 160 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in what could be his final two games (against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs) for the Chargers, who have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans
Devin Singletary needs to be a part of at least 50 percent of the Houston Texans’ regular-season offensive snaps for a $125,000 incentive and at least 55 percent for another $125,000. He sits at 53 percent and is the team's lead running back.
More notably, he needs at least 1,000 total yards for a $125,000 incentive and at least 1,110 total yards for another $125,000. He sits at 940 total yards, which means he is on a good pace to reach the first incentive but would need to put his foot on the gas pedal for 160 more total yards for the double-bonus.
Singletary will face the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts as the Texans look to stay afloat in a tough fight for a playoff spot.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
DeAndre Hopkins has a plethora of thresholds within reach. He needs at least:
- 65 receptions for a $250,000 incentive and 75 receptions for another $250,000 (currently at 61)
- 950 receiving yards for $250,000 and 1,000 receiving yards for another $250,000 (currently at 939)
- Eight receiving touchdowns for $250,000 and 10 receiving touchdowns for another $250,000 (currently at six)
The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention but are set to face the Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Hopkins has his eyes on several realistic bonuses and would rack up $1,000,000 in incentives with four receptions, 61 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns over this two-game span.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Baltimore Ravens
Odell Beckham Jr. has a flurry of milestones well within reach in his contract with the Baltimore Ravens. He needs:
- 40 receptions for $500,000 and 50 receptions for another $750,000 (currently at 34)
- Five touchdowns for $500,000 and seven touchdowns for another $750,000 (currently at three)
- 750 receiving yards for $750,000 (currently at 532)
The Ravens are still in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs and will face the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz needs to be part of at least 71 percent of the Texans’ regular-season offensive snaps for a $250,000 incentive and at least 80 percent for another $250,000. He currently sits at 73 percent with Houston in contention for a playoff spot.
More notably, he needs at least 60 receptions for a $250,000 incentive (currently at 52) and at least 700 receiving yards for an additional $250,000 (currently at 574).
Scultz is, therefore, looking to rack up eight receptions and 126 receiving yards in a two-game span against the Titans and Colts.
Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree, DE, Atlanta Falcons
Calais Campbell needs at least eight sacks for a $500,000 incentive; he has 5.5. Bud Dupree needs at least seven sacks for a $1,000,000 incentive; he has five
The Atlanta Falcons have a slim chance of making the playoffs through an outside shot of winning their division. They'll face the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints to end the season. If either Cambell or Dupree can enter the sack column in Week 17, they could have a realistic shot of reaching their incentive threshold in Week 18 against a Saints offense that ranks No. 29 in pass block win rate.
Arden Key, DE, Tennessee Titans
Arden Key needs at least eight sacks for a $500,000 incentive and at least nine sacks for another $250,000; he currently has six. The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention, but Key has an outside shot at reaching that first bonus threshold against the Texans and Jaguars. Both teams have injuries at quarterback, and Jacksonville ranks 30th in pass block win rate.
Jadeveon Clowney, LB, Baltimore Ravens
Jadeveon Clowney needs at least nine sacks for a $750,000 incentive; he sits at 8.5. He also has a $500,000 incentive for recording at least a 50 percent snap share and another $500,000 for recording at least a 60 percent snap share; he currently has a 57 percent snap share. Clowney is in line to face the Dolphins and Steelers as the Ravens seek the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Keisean Nixon, CB, Green Bay Packers
Keisean Nixon needs at least two interceptions for a $250,000 incentive and at least three interceptions for another $250,000. He has one interception. The Packers are clinging onto hopes for a run at the NFC playoffs and will face the Vikings and Bears, both of which have offenses that pose high upside for turnovers. Fellow Green Bay CB Jaire Alexander is suspended for Week 17.
After the end of Week 17, Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) will tweet updates on the aforementioned players and their pending incentive thresholds entering Week 18.
