Fantasy
12/23/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 16: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
WEEK 16 HIGHER/LOWER ENTRIES
Trevor Siemian HIGHER than 10.55 Fantasy Points, Garrett Wilson HIGHER than 61.5 receiving yards and Curtis Samuel HIGHER than 3.5 receptions
5.16x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy
The Washington Commanders travel to take on the New York Jets at Metlife Stadium. No defense has performed worse against the pass this season than the Commanders. Ranking last in dropback expected points allowed (EPA), the Jets’ offense will have the opportunity for big plays.
Crucially, Trevor Siemian only has to record at least 10.56 fantasy points to exceed his projection. If Siemian has zero rushing production, he can still exceed his projection with only 200 passing yards, one passing touchdown and an interception. When Siemian does not struggle against the Commanders' pass defense, Garrett Wilson often will haul in at least 62 receiving yards.
The Commanders' extreme pass-heavy tendencies should carry through even against a strong passing defense like the Jets. Curtis Samuel has seen at least half of the team's offensive snaps in 11 games this season. He has recorded at least four receptions in eight such games. When injuries have not limited Samuels' snaps, he is likelier to record four receptions.
Jordan Battle HIGHER than 5.5 tackles and assists, Jaylen Warren HIGHER than 66.5 rushing and receiving yards and Jake Browning LOWER than 240.5 passing yards
6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy
As the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup of backup quarterbacks, the Bengals are without run-stuffing defensive tackle D.J. Reader and star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Despite admirable recent performances from backup quarterback Jake Browning, the Steelers’ eleventh-ranked defense in EPA per dropback and dropback success rate allowed may be daunting without Chase.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers may design more plays for their most explosive player, Jaylen Warren. Whether out of the backfield in the receiving game or on the ground, Warren remains a key to the Steelers’ offensive success. When the Steelers move the ball successfully, Warren’s success at getting to the second level also makes Bengals’ box safety Jordan Battle more likely to record at least six tackles and assists.
Rico Dowdle LOWER than 25.5 rushing and receiving yards, De’Von Achane HIGHER than 47.5 rushing yards and Brandon Aubrey LOWER than 2.5 made extra points
6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy
As the Dallas Cowboys take on the Miami Dolphins in one of the week’s most exciting games, there is value in building off a game script where the Dolphins have far more success than the Cowboys on offense. In recent media sessions, coach Mike McDaniel has mentioned the desire to give more touches to De’Von Achane. With another week to recover from injury, Achane should project for low double-digit carries. Against a Cowboys defense that ranks 32nd in rushing success rate allowed and near league average in rushing EPA, Achane has a favorable matchup.
Rico Dowdle is less likely to see work, as Dallas has to play from behind. If Dallas struggles to move the ball on offense, they will not have the luxury of late-game carries for Dowdle to wind down the clock. Additionally, in games where Dallas fields fewer long drives, kicker Brandon Aubrey becomes less likely to record at least three made extra points.
