Betting
12/19/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams
Saints (7-7) at Rams (7-7)
Spread: Rams -4
Total: 45.5
Weather: Dome game
Line Report
The spread has not moved for this contest, but the total has moved up from 44.5 to 45.5 points.
Rams Offense vs. Saints Defense
Matthew Stafford’s offense has driven the Los Angeles Rams to their 7-7 record. The Rams are scoring the ninth-most points per game. The New Orleans Saints’ defense has been the strength of their team, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game.
After a scorching hot four-game start to his career, Puka Nacua has evened out over his past eight games. Nacua has only reached 100 receiving yards once in his last seven games. He hit the 100-yard mark four times in his first six. Despite the production dip, Nakua has at least seven targets in every game he’s played.
After a disappointing stretch from October into early December, Cooper Kupp has 100 receiving yards in his last two games. Kupp has 26 targets over his past three games, while Nacua has 24 over that span. The Saints allow the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
Tyler Higbee has 403 receiving yards on 38 receptions. He has at least four targets in each of his last three games. New Orleans has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Kyren Williams leads the league in rushing yards per game. Williams has missed four games this season, but he’s been a difference-maker when he’s active. Williams has been much less of a factor in the passing game, as he’s 21st in receiving yards per game. The Saints allow the 12th-most rushing yards and the third-fewest receiving yards to running backs.
Saints Offense vs. Rams Defense
The Saints are 13th in points per game, while the Rams are 19th in points allowed per game. Derek Carr has been inconsistent this season, though he’s thrown for 300 yards five times.
Chris Olave missed last week’s contest, but he’s been the Saints' top option all season. Olave has a 25.7 percent target share and he has at least 90 receiving yards in six games. Olave has at least eight targets in 10 of his 13 games.
Rashid Shaheed is second among Saints wide receivers in receiving yards with 570. That said, Shaheed has been held below 40 receiving yards in eight of his 12 games. The Rams have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Juwann Johnson has 190 receiving yards, Foster Moreau has 164 and Taysom Hill has 233. Shockingly, Jimmy Graham is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with four. The Rams have given up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Alvin Kamara has 161 carries and 78 targets over his 11 games. Kamara’s 7.1 targets per game leads all running backs by 1.6 targets per game. The Rams have allowed the 20th most rushing yards and the fewest receiving yards to running backs.
What You're Betting On
If you are betting on the Rams you are building that bet around Stafford and Sean McVay’s offense. That group has driven the majority of Los Angeles’ success. The Saints have a well-rounded defense that’s largely kept New Orleans in the thick of the NFC South playoff race.
So either you need Stafford’s offense to exceed expectations, or a Rams’ bet is primarily a wager against Carr. Los Angeles is playing its best football of the year right now, so you are also betting on a hot, motivated team.
If you are betting on the Saints, their defense has been the more reliable unit this season, so you expect that they at least hold the Rams to their team total. Otherwise, your expectation is that Carr’s offense finally shows some ceiling in a primetime game between two playoff contenders.
New Orleans has enough talent to win this game outright without it being a major surprise, but the Saints have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. Therefore, you are ultimately betting on either a down game from the Rams or a spike game from New Orleans on the road, on a short week.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Saints 20
Ryan's Recent Betting Record
ATS
2021: 49-31
2022: 48-32
2023: 40-35
Props
2022: 60-40
2023: 26-25
