Fantasy
12/18/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 DFS Lineup Recap: What We Can Learn From Results
In DFS, crafting the perfect lineup is an art and a science. It requires a deep understanding of player dynamics, game environments and the unpredictable nature of sports.
In the following article, we will review two of our lineups to give you insight into how we constructed them and where we went wrong.
WEEK 15 DFS LINEUP RECAP
Mark Garcia’s Review
Contest: $20 Milly Maker Contest
Entrants: 148,392
The split week and holidays made this week’s main slate a function of time. As in, the field had less time to dedicate to building rosters, effectively amplifying our edge in the process.
Ideally, I would have been able to dedicate the additional time to push that edge even further, but things didn’t work out for me in that way because of a daughter with the stomach bug and a son who decided to shove a Lego up his nose. Because of that, I knew my edge would not be as great as it could have been on the main slate, which led to me putting fewer dollarydoos (shout out to the Bluey fans in the audience) in play than I usually would have.
I built just 10 rosters on the main slate and took more of a “for fun” approach to the slate, entering those rosters into the Millionaire Maker (which I don’t usually play outside of the $555 entry and the $4,444 entry).
This roster performed the best of those 10, but I thought it also highlighted some interesting takeaways from the slate itself.
Most of the talk around the industry this past week centered on how to leverage off of Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams. I went the other way with that discussion, centering my builds on those two as the far and away top on-paper plays on the slate.
I built leverage by including either of those team’s quarterback with an additional pass-catcher, as seen on this roster through a primary core of Matthew Stafford, Williams, McCaffrey and Cooper Kupp. The value pieces that allowed me to allocate so much salary to that core included upside pieces in Noah Brown (I had 100 percent of him across my light portfolio), Rashid Shaheed (the downfield threat for an offense missing Michael Thomas and Chris Olave), and Curtis Samuel (who fit well in this roster due to the Rams team over-stack).
Ty Conklin was a “last player in” type of play, and theoretically, I should have played Tucker Kraft as a small leverage piece off of the expected ownership on Jayden Reed. That was a mistake I’ll happily admit to.
But, as discussed above, I didn’t feel I had the requisite time to put extremely well-thought-out rosters into play this week, so I’m happy with my overall decision-making process. I’ll book the small profit and move on to Week 16!
Jordan Vanek’s Review
Contest: NFL $400,000 Spy [$100,000 to first, Single Entry]
Entrants: 4,444
With the lineup build here, I was hoping for a shootout in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers–Green Bay Packers game. I got just that, and I had the unique stack with Dontayvion Wicks being sub-two percent and almost getting to that 100-yard bonus. I was unable to get the right side of this game, and it was the Baker Mayfield side that dominated the slate.
Based on the player cutdowns I made and how the slate played out this weekend, I could not get to a winning score.
Elite offenses might fail in island games because of offensive line breakdowns, but with a week of preparation, they can bounce back. Jaylen Waddle should have been locked into my lineups when Tyreek Hill was ruled out because of my belief in Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa. Waddle is a top-tier wide receiver and can dominate matchups when the offense is centered on him.
James Cook has been a workhorse running back since OC Joe Brady has taken over, and Cook shouldn’t have been a player I dismissed this weekend. We saw the Dallas Cowboys get dominated in the trenches by the Arizona Cardinals early in the year, and Cook has been receiving an elite-level workload. We also know the Buffalo Bills are a 12-personnel team now, and the Cowboys aren’t a big team up front.
The history of matchups means nothing when teams change. Many people talked about and targeted the Derrick Henry matchup against the Houston Texans as a heaven spot for your best ball tournaments. I knew DeMeco Ryans would make a change in that department, and the Texans' run defense has been one of the top in football.
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