Fantasy
12/2/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 13: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
WEEK 13 HIGHER/LOWER ENTRIES
Bijan Robinson HIGHER than 80.5 rushing + receiving yards, Tim Boyle LOWER than 181.5 passing yards and Garrett Wilson LOWER than 52.5 receiving yards
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The Atlanta Falcons travel to take on the New York Jets in one of week 13’s lowest total games. In a game environment where the Falcons do not get behind early, they will certainly rely on their rushing attack to burn the clock and move the ball down the field.
Bijan Robinson will be the primary benefactor of a Falcons’ offense that wants to mitigate turnover risks and maintain a lead while sustaining long drives.
Against the Miami Dolphins last week, it took Tim Boyle 38 attempts to pass for 179 yards. Boyle’s extreme inefficiency, going back to his college career, makes accumulating passing yards strictly a bet on volume or an unpredictable big play.
If Boyle has limiting passing volume, it is more difficult for Garrett Wilson to eclipse 53 receiving yards. Despite seeing 10 targets and seven receptions last week, Wilson only finished with 44 yards.
Rachaad White LOWER than 17.5 rushing attempts, Bryce Young HIGHER than 192.5 passing yards and Adam Thielen HIGHER than 5.5 receptions
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The Carolina Panthers, now without head coach Frank Reich, visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in another low total game. In the three games with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling plays the Panthers passed the ball eight percent more than expected relative to their run-heavy approach under Reich.
In the five games where Bryce Young has passed for at least 193 yards, Adam Thielen has caught at least seven receptions in four of them. The Tampa Bay pass defense is relatively weak, ranking in the league’s bottom 10 in dropback expected points added (EPA) and in dropback success rate. In a game environment where the Panthers succeed through the air, pairing Young and Thielen presents a strong correlation.
When the Panthers’ passing attack keeps the game close or even forces the Buccaneers into a negative game script, Rachaad White becomes a candidate to see less rushing volume. White has only cleared 17.5 attempts twice this season.
Derrick Henry LOWER than 74.5 rushing + receiving yards, Michael Pittman Jr. HIGHER than 6.5 receptions and Gardner Minshew II HIGHER than 236.5 passing yards
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Without Jonathan Taylor, the Indianapolis Colts play host to the Tennessee Titans. This season, the Titans’ passing defense ranks in the bottom five in dropback EPA and dropback success rate.
In an advantageous matchup for the Colts’ passing game, success likely comes through Michael Pittman Jr. So far this season, Pittman Jr. has caught at least seven receptions in seven of eight games with Gardner Minshew II starting.
If the Colts can control the time of possession with a successful aerial attack, it becomes increasingly less likely for Derrick Henry to see enough volume to record 75 scrimmage yards.
