Betting
11/18/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 Betting Preview for Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools, are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement and weekly notes on every game. I’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
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Steelers at Browns
Spread: Browns -1.5
Total: 33
The spread for this contest has moved from Cleveland Browns -3.5 to Browns -1.5. That movement was related to Deshaun Watson’s injury announcement. The total has fallen from 38.5 to 33 points.
Winner Pools: Expect both teams to be used in nearly 50 percent of entries. I will be a little Pittsburgh Steelers heavy, but I’m not taking a big stance on this contest.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Steelers 16, Browns 13
Cowboys at Panthers
Spread: Panthers +10.5
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Carolina Panthers +11 to Panthers +10.5. The total has risen from 41.5 to 42.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Dallas Cowboys to be used in roughly 95 percent of entries. From a pure game theory standpoint the Panthers are an interesting leverage play at home. That said, a lot of things have to go wrong for Dallas to lose this game. I’ll be in line with consensus on this matchup in winner pools.
Survivor Pools: If you still have Dallas available, you probably saved it for this week. Otherwise, next week’s Thanksgiving game against Washington is the next-best game through the rest of the season.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Panthers 13
Raiders at Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -13.5
Total: 46
The spread for this contest has moved from Miami Dolphins -11.5 to Dolphins -13.5. The total has moved down from 46.5 to 46 points.
Winner Pools: Expect Miami to be used in more than 95 percent of entries. The Dolphins are coming off a bye, and they’ve been bet up as the week has progressed. I’m going to use Miami in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: Miami faces five teams in a row with sub .500 records. That said, this is their best spot through the rest of the season.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 31, Las Vegas Raiders 17
Bears at Lions
Spread: Lions -7.5
Total: 48
The spread for this contest has moved from Detroit Lions -10 down to Lions -7.5. The total for this game has risen from 46.5 to 48 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Lions to be used in more than 95 percent of entries. There are many major favorites on this slate, which means each underdog in those contests is a leverage play. The Chicago Bears are my favorite leverage play in those situations. I’ll use the Bears in roughly 50 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: I’m going to avoid the Lions in survivor this week.
Score Prediction: Lions 28, Bears 24
Cardinals at Texans
Spread: Texans -5
Total: 48.5
The spread for this contest moved from Houston Texans -5 down to Texans -4 before moving back up to Texans -6 late in the week. The total has moved down slightly from 48.5 to 48 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Texans to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. That’s pretty high for a young team like Houston facing Kyler Murray. I’ll use Houston in roughly 70 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: In one of my still active entries, I’m debating whether or not to use the Texans or Chargers. If I had Dallas, San Francisco or Miami left, I’d use them over Houston. Otherwise, I’m considering the Texans as an aggressive option this week.
Score Prediction: Texans 28, Arizona Cardinals 24
Titans at Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -7
Total: 39.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 to Jaguars -7. The total has moved from 40 to 39.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Jaguars to be used in more than 90 percent of entries. I will play Jacksonville in all of my winner pools.
Survivor Pools: I’m going to save the Jaguars for their Week 17 matchup with the Panthers in most scenarios. That said, Jacksonville is a reasonable option this week if you’ve already used the other major favorites.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 26, Tennessee Titans 20
Giants at Commanders
Spread: Commanders -8.5
Total: 37.5
The spread for this contest has moved from Washington Commanders -10 down to Commanders -8.5. The total has moved from 37 to 37.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect Washington to be used in more than 95 percent of entries. The Commanders are a volatile team, which means that the New York Giants are a leverage play worth considering from a game theory standpoint. The problem is that New York has the worst offense in the league.
Survivor Pools: This is the last usable spot in survivor pools for the Commanders. We can’t call Washington a safe option, but the Giants have a very narrow path to victory.
Score Prediction: Commanders 20, Giants 13
Chargers at Packers
Spread: Packers +3
Total: 44
Neither the spread nor total has moved for this contest.
Winner Pools: Expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be used in roughly 75 percent of winner pools. I will still be Chargers heavy with my entries, but I’ll play them in more of a 2-to-1 ratio with the Green Bay Packers.
Survivor Pools: The Chargers are not safe, but they warrant consideration if you’ve used the major favorites on this slate.
Score Prediction: Chargers 26, Packers 23
Buccaneers at 49ers
Spread: 49ers -12
Total: 41.5
The spread for this contest has moved from San Francisco 49ers -10.5 to 49ers -12. The total has moved from 42.5 to 41.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect San Francisco to be used in nearly all entries. I’m going to play the 49ers in all of my winner pools.
Survivor Pools: The 49ers have a few usable matchups down the stretch, but this is their best spot at home through the rest of the year.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Jets at Bills
Spread: Bills -7
Total: 39.5
The spread for this contest has stayed at Buffalo Bills -7 all week with brief fluctuations. The total has moved from 40 to 39.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Bills to be used in roughly 90 percent of entries. I have absolutely no confidence in the New York Jets’ offense, so I will play the Bills in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This is one of Buffalo’s two strong spots through the rest of the season. That said, Buffalo is a volatile team that’s lost three of its past four. You should not consider the Bills a safe option in survivor.
Score Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 13
Seahawks at Rams
Spread: Rams +1
Total: 46
The spread for this contest has moved from Los Angeles Rams +3 to Rams +1. The total has moved from 44 to 46 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Seattle Seahawks to be used in roughly 75 percent of entries. I’m going to play the Rams in roughly 50 percent of my entries, which will be one of my stronger stances of the week. That said, if I had just one winner pool entry I might actually lean towards playing the Seahawks in that scenario.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
Vikings at Broncos
Spread: Broncos -2
Total: 42.5
The spread for this contest has not moved, but the total has dipped down from 43 to 42.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Minnesota Vikings to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. This is the sort of leverage spot I tend to lean into in winner pools. That’s why I’m going to play the Denver Broncos in roughly 65 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Vikings 17
Eagles at Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -3
Total: 48
The spread for this contest has moved from Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 and Chiefs -3 throughout the week. The total has moved down from 48 to 45.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Chiefs to be used in roughly 60 percent of survivor entries. This is close to a true coin flip game, as there is, where you could make an excellent case for either team winning this matchup. I will be slightly Philadelphia Eagles heavy in my own entries.
Survivor Pools: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Chiefs 24
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