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2023 NFL Week 10: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries to Consider

We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value. 

Week 10 Higher/Lower Entries

Trevor Lawrence LOWER than 33.5 passing attempts, Christian McCaffrey HIGHER than 16.25 fantasy points and Calvin Ridley LOWER than 31.0 receiving yards vs Travis Etienne Jr.

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With the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers entering Week 10 off of their bye weeks, there is significant uncertainty around whether teams will have new usage deployments. That said, Christian McCaffrey enters with an extra week of rest and has eclipsed at least 16.25 fantasy points in six of his eight games this season. In a crucial game for the 49ers, they will give McCaffrey a full array of touches, including valuable goal-line and receiving work.

If the 49ers successfully move the ball and McCaffrey records at least 16.25 fantasy points, the available play volume for the Jaguars lessens. As such, Trevor Lawrence will have fewer opportunities to attempt passes down the field. Calvin Ridley having fewer than 31 receiving yards or Travis Etienne Jr. having within 31 yards of Ridley becomes more likely as Lawrence throws fewer passes.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown HIGHER than 6.5 receptions, Austin Ekeler LOWER than 13.0 rushing attempts and Jared Goff HIGHER than 12.5 passing first downs

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Fresh off their Week 9 bye, the Detroit Lions travel to take on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Lions’ offense ranks 11th in dropback estimated points added (EPA) per play and 10th in success rate. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense ranks in the league’s bottom ten in defensive dropback EPA and success rate. 

The favorable matchup for the Lions’ passing attack makes Jared Goff likely to record at least 13 passing first downs an intriguing selection. Adding Amon-Ra St. Brown to record at least seven receptions is significantly correlated. St. Brown will see a large share of the opportunities if the Lions consistently move the ball through the air. 

When the Lions successfully move the ball, the Chargers will have fewer available plays on offense and have to pass the ball more to stay in the game. So, taking Austin Ekeler to have lower than 13.0 rushing attempts presents a significant correlation. 

Jeff Okudah HIGHER than 4.5 tackles + assists, Kyler Murray HIGHER than 222.5 passing yards and Marquise Brown HIGHER than 53.5 receiving yards

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Kyler Murray returns as the Arizona Cardinals play host to the Atlanta Falcons. The uncertainty over the Cardinals’ offense with Murray at the helm presents opportunities for capitalizing on tail outcomes. 

The Cardinals’ offense has multiple outs to pass the ball often. If it wants to target a weak pass defense (the Falcons rank 25th in dropback EPA allowed and first in rushing EPA allowed), Murray remains more likely to exceed 222.5 passing yards. If the Cardinals have to throw to stay in the game, tendency changes favor Murray’s passing yardage. When Murray throws for at least 223 yards, top target Marquise Brown will likely haul in at least 54 receiving yards. 

The Cardinals’ passing success also leads outside cornerback Jeff Okudah to record at least five combined tackles and assists more often. In the four games this season with Okudah healthy, where the opposing offense has thrown for at least 223 yards, Okudah has five or more tackles and assists on every occasion. 

CeeDee Lamb HIGHER than 77.5 receiving yards, Dak Prescott HIGHER than 247.5 passing yards and Bobby Okereke HIGHER than 9.5 tackles + assists

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The Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants take on the Dallas Cowboys in one of this week’s most lopsided matchups. If DeVito struggles to move the ball consistently, the Cowboys will have the opportunity to dominate time of possession. In such games, the Cowboys’ passing attack can flex its muscles.

The Cowboys have tried to feature CeeDee Lamb as an outside receiver in the two games since their bye week. In each game, Lamb has at least 14 targets for 150 yards. While such performances are more likely outliers than the norm, the underlying usage suggests Lamb is more likely than not to record at least 78 receiving yards. Lamb’s receiving yardage also correlates with Dak Prescott’s passing yardage. If Prescott plays the entire game with Lamb having at least 78 receiving yards, he is very likely to throw for at least 248 yards. 

When the Cowboys offense moves the ball and has significant time of possession, Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke becomes more likely to make at least 10 combined tackles and assists.

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