Analysis

11/9/23

10 min read

2023 NFL Week 10: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

SHARE:

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Email
• Copy permalink to clipboard https://www.the33rdteam.com/2023-nfl-week-10-biggest-matchups-mismatches/ Copied to clipboard

Each week, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat. 

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will enable you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season. 

Here’s our look at Week 10.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth Down Decision Ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 10 Matchups

Panthers vs. Bears

Fourth-down decisions: Panthers sixth, Bears 13th

The Carolina Panthers’ lackluster rushing attack will face a tough test against a stout Chicago Bears’ run defense. While neither team has shown a consistent passing attack, both defenses struggle on the back end.

We could see Bryce Young or Tyson Bagent have a better-than-anticipated game. Bagent’s receiving threats and blocking give him an advantage in the potential duel, but Young will face one of the league's most underwhelming pass rush units. The Bears will look to Montez Sweat to bring them out of the pass-rushing abyss.

Colts vs. Patriots

Fourth-down decisions: Colts 30th, Patriots 23rd

The New England Patriots’ putrid pass rush could get a fair matchup this week against the feeble Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line. 

On the other side, the Colts’ pass rush vs. the Patriots’ offensive line will be a respectable battle. Getting pressure on Mac Jones will be a major factor in this game. Neither team makes great fourth-down decisions, so the European crowd should enjoy lots of kicking and punting.

Browns vs. Ravens

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 15th, Ravens 25th

The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns absolutely dominated last week, and both defenses can wreck offensive game plans. The Ravens lock down the back end, while the Browns excel at stopping the run, and both can bring the pressure on any down. 

The big difference in this matchup is the offensive lines. Myles Garrett, Dalvin Tomlinson and the rest of the Browns’ defense will be tested against a line that blocks well in the run and the passing games. 

The Ravens’ defense will go against a sub-par Browns offense, lacking the same offensive firepower that the Ravens possess. This has the potential to be a “win ugly” game. 

However, one defense will get worn down, and the Ravens’ offense is much harder to stop for 60 minutes compared to the Nick Chubb-less Browns.

Texans vs. Bengals

Fourth-down decisions: Texans fifth, Bengals 17th

C.J. Stroud has taken the league by storm, while a healthy Joe Burrow has re-launched the Cincinnati Bengals into the Super Bowl discussion. The Bengals will likely be less-than-full strength in their receiving room, but the Houston Texans don’t strike fear into the league with their pass defense. 

The Texans’ offensive line needs to find a way to exploit the Bengals' porous run defense, preventing Trey Hendrickson and the rest of the Bengals’ pass rush from going berserker mode against Stroud. 

The two most popular quarterbacks in Ohio last year could find themselves in some high-pressure situations, and Burrow’s experience gives him the edge.

49ers vs. Jaguars

Fourth-down decisions: 49ers 12th, Jaguars 27th

If you remove the team names and just look at the numbers, not many people would recognize this as a couple of division-leading teams. The San Francisco 49ers' run defense and pass rush have been underwhelming, so Chase Young is a welcome addition. The Jacksonville Jaguars really struggle to separate themselves anywhere. 

Brock Purdy will look to pick apart a defense that ranks in the league's bottom half in run defense, pass rush and pass coverage. The 49ers’ defense has areas to exploit, but Trevor Lawrence’s support won’t intimidate the defense, ranking in the bottom half of rushing, receiving, and blocking. 

Couple the rankings with a big discrepancy in fourth-down decision-making, and the 49ers could run away with this one and end the Jaguars’ five-game winning streak.

Saints vs. Vikings

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 24th, Vikings 18th

The New Orleans Saints boast an elite coverage defense, while the Minnesota Vikings boast a sieve coverage defense. Derek Carr should find wide-open windows if he can hit them, and Joshua Dobbs will have to make some tight throws. 

Dobbs was remarkable last week, leading the Vikings to a comeback win when he didn’t know his teammates’ names, but the Saints will be a tough second act. Alexander Mattison will be asked to take a bigger role with Cam Akers out. 

Mattison fell flat when asked to take a bigger role early in the season, prompting the move to add Akers. This game could go either way, with a fully-integrated Dobbs being the X-factor.

Packers vs. Steelers

Fourth-down decisions: Packers second, Steelers 31st

Neither offense is elite, and both sides are capable of bringing pressure. Their offensive line carries the Green Bay Packers’ offense but will face a tough test against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense matches up well against the Packers’ offense and could make life miserable all game long. 

Kenny Pickett doesn’t need to be Superman, but he has to limit the mistakes and trust his running backs. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren rank Top 10 in BT+MT% among running backs. 

Play calling could be an underrated X-factor in this game. The difference in fourth-down decision-making is stark, with the Packers holding a significant edge.

Titans vs. Buccaneers

Fourth-down decisions: Titans fourth, Buccaneers 29th

Baker Mayfield takes a balanced Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense against a Tennessee Titans defense that is stout against the run but struggles to generate pressure or cover the back end. 

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s top-ranked rush game goes against a tough Buccaneers’ run defense. The Titans’ offensive line hasn’t been great this year, but it will need to win the matchups against a sub-par Buccaneers’ pass rush to give Will Levis time to throw. 

Mayfield should have good protection, and the Titans’ pass defense can be exploited if he has time.

Falcons vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 16th, Cardinals third

Kyler Murray is back, meaning his eight-game audition starts now. The Arizona Cardinals rank last in Passing Total Points, so Murray has a low bar to clear. 

The Cardinals’ run game has been solid, but the receivers and offensive line leave something to be desired. He is going against an odd Atlanta Falcons defense that is excellent against the run and the pass but struggles to generate pressure. 

Taylor Heinicke has the luxury of going against a defense that can’t generate pressure or stop the run, the latter of which plays into the Falcons’ strengths. 

The Falcons should run all over the Cardinals, and unless Murray fires on all cylinders, this will be a tough defense for the Cardinals to beat.

Lions vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Lions seventh, Chargers 19th

The Detroit Lions might be the most balanced team in the league in every category. Including fourth-down decisions, they rank between seventh and 12th. 

The Los Angeles Chargers, on the other hand, show great receiving metrics despite injuries but struggle to run the ball and stop the run. 

Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will have the “difficult” task of deciding whether to use his potent passing attack against a porous passing defense or use his rushing attack against a rubbish run defense. 

Kellen Moore knows he will have to attack in the passing game, as the Chargers’ run game is usually a no-show. 

Giants vs. Cowboys

Fourth-down decisions: Giants 28th, Cowboys ninth

Unless the Dallas Cowboys abandon everything that makes them who they are, and unless Tommy DeVito proves every NFL scout wrong, the Cowboys should win handily. 

Never say never, but the Cowboys are well over two-touchdown favorites for a reason.

Commanders vs. Seahawks

Fourth-down decisions: Commanders 22nd, Seahawks 21st

The Washington Commanders have had some offensive surges. Still, the Seattle Seahawks defense will be looking to bounce back after a horrible showing last week. 

A cornerback tandem of Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon is a tough matchup for Sam Howell. 

While there are some opportunities for the Commanders' receivers to make an impact, the bigger mismatch is the Seahawks' receivers against the Commanders’ cornerbacks. 

The Commanders’ defense has not been good this year and will likely continue its downward trend after trading away Sweat and Young. Containing Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for an entire game will be a tall order for the Commanders.

Jets vs. Raiders

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 20th, Raiders N/A

The New York Jets defense should provide a much tougher matchup for the Las Vegas Raiders. 

The Jets’ ability to stop the run, generate pressure and cover downfield ranks in the NFL’s top half. Zach Wilson will be thankful he can hand the ball off against the last-ranked Raiders run defense. 

One interesting facet is how the Raiders follow up their eight-sack performance last week, as the Jets’ offensive line does have some weaknesses.

Broncos vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Broncos 11th, Bills eighth

While it generates pressure at a decent clip, the Denver Broncos’ run defense and coverage ability are severely lacking. So, the Buffalo Bills should move the ball early and often. 

The Bills’ defense is a tough matchup, especially at home, but if the Broncos utilize their running backs, they can keep the game close. Then, perhaps, winning the turnover battle is enough for an upset. 

The path to a Broncos win is difficult but not impossible. With both teams in the top half of fourth-down decision-making, preventing opportunistic fourth-downs will be vital for the Broncos. 

This article was authored by Jeff Dean. 

---

Sports Info Solutions

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Instagram