Analysis
11/7/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Panthers (1-7) at Bears (2-7)
Spread: Bears -3.5
Total: 39
Weather: No current concerns
The Line Report
The spread for this contest opened at Bears -3 but moved to Bears -3.5 early in the week.
The total has seen only minor fluctuations early in the week.
Bears Offense vs. Panthers Defense
Justin Fields was a limited practice participant on Monday and Tuesday due to a thumb injury. If he plays, he brings dynamic athleticism to the table for the Chicago Bears’ offense. If he doesn’t, the biggest knock on Tyson Bagent’s game is that he’s had issues with turnovers. Otherwise, Bagent has managed pressure well in his game manager-type role. The Bears can beat the Carolina Panthers with either quarterback.
The Panthers allow the sixth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers and the third-fewest to tight ends. Some of that is game script-related because Carolina is a one-win team that’s usually playing from behind. DJ Moore is the centerpiece of the Bears’ passing attack as he leads the team in all major receiving categories.
Tight end Cole Kmet is second on the Bears in targets (50), receptions (41) and receiving yards (374), and he’s tied with Moore for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with five. Kmet has seen his best usage over the last two weeks with Bagent, while Moore’s best outputs came when Fields was active.
Darnell Mooney is the other Bears’ pass catcher of note. He has seen most of his best usage over Bagent’s three starts. Mooney is a speedster whose production is largely dependent on chunk plays.
Khalil Herbert was a full practice participant on Monday and Tuesday, signaling that he’s ready to return to action. Herbert’s return likely cuts into D’Onta Foreman’s role the most because he’s led the Bears in rushing the past four games. The Panthers allow the second-most rushing yards to running backs. This is a plus matchup for all Bears running backs, with the expectation that Herbert, Foreman and Roschon Johnson see notable work.
Panthers Offense vs. Bears Defense
Bryce Young continues to struggle and the Panthers are scoring the seventh-fewest points per game in the league.
Adam Thielen is shockingly fifth in the league in receptions per game this season and he leads the team with 610 receiving yards. DJ Chark (229) and Jonathan Mingo (200) are next in receiving yards. The Bears allow the 19th-most receiving yards to wide receivers and their defense is better now than it was on opening day.
Chicago allows the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Carolina's Hayden Hurst is a solid veteran tight end, but he only has 170 receiving yards.
The Bears give up the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs, but the most receiving yards to the position. Chuba Hubbard has taken over the Panthers backfield from Miles Sanders. Last week against the Colts, Hubbard had 16 carries and six targets compared to Sanders’ six carries and five targets. Neither runner has been overly productive, but Sanders has seen limited action in each of his two games since returning from injury.
What You’re Betting On
An interesting wrinkle to this game is that the Bears have the Panthers' first-round pick in the 2024 draft.
If you’re betting on the Bears you are betting on an inconsistent team that has more talent than their record indicates. If Fields returns to action, we’ve seen him spearhead many high-scoring outputs for the Bears offense. If Bagent starts, the ceiling of Chicago’s offense is lower, but he’s played some solid football throughout his three starts. Fields gives Chicago’s offense the potential to blow expectations out of the water. If Bagent starts, the outcome will be more reliant on the Bears’ defense. Chicago’s defense has played well in three of its past four games. That makes a bet against Bryce Young a reasonable one.
If you’re betting on the Panthers, that bet needs to be more against Chicago than for Carolina. The Panthers’ offense has been well below average in every phase all year. Carolina’s defense has been inconsistent, but it was the driving force behind the Panthers' lone win against Houston. Building a bet around the Panthers’ defense keeping this game close is a far more reasonable expectation than building one around Young’s offense.
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Panthers 16
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 24-21
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 18-15
Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team and has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
