Betting
4/26/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Draft: 9 First-Round Bets Our Experts Made
Below, you’ll find nine 2023 NFL Draft bets Ryan Reynolds, Josh Larky and Daniel Racz made in the past six weeks, focusing on Round 1. You'll also find the reasoning behind these bets, along with any thoughts on how the markets have shifted since.
When betting in the NFL draft market, you should frame every bet by the odds of it actually happening. If that percentage exceeds the implied odds for that option, you should consider making that wager. In simple terms, if you believe there’s a 40 percent chance a bet will hit, and the odds are +300 (25 percent implied odds), that’s a solid bet to place a wager on.
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On Tuesday, Larky, Reynolds and Racz recorded an efficient, informative 28-minute podcast on betting the NFL Draft. You can check it out through the below link.
9 Bets We Made
1. Will Levis No. 1 Pick AND Bryce Young No. 2 Pick (Reynolds)
Odds: +10000 (1 percent)
Reynolds wanted to make this parlay bet on April 11 when Will Levis (scouting report) to the Houston Texans was starting to gain steam. Draft parlays came out roughly a week later, which is when this bet was officially made.
Bryce Young (scouting report) going first overall with Levis going second was roughly +600 (14.3 percent) when this bet was made. Taking the reverse at 100:1 odds was an easy decision since both players are quarterbacks at the top of the draft cluster. This parlay option is currently +450 (18.2 percent) on DraftKings Sportsbook. Even if it doesn’t hit, this was a tremendous value play.
2. C.J. Stroud Third QB Taken (Larky)
Odds: +850 (10.5 percent)
3. Stroud No. 3 Overall Pick (Larky)
Odds: +2000 (4.8 percent)
Josh made these bets when C.J. Stroud (scouting report) was the favorite to go No. 1 overall several weeks ago. Much can change in these draft markets, and it was unclear why Stroud was clearly better than Young and at least one of Levis or Anthony Richardson (scouting report).
Stroud is now +275 (26.7 percent) to be the No. 3 overall pick, and +115 (46.5 percent) to be the third quarterback taken.
Reynolds tailed these bets for a few reasons. First, he's been below consensus on Stroud for most of the draft process, primarily because the Ohio State quarterback is a pressure-sensitive player. Further, no quarterback prospect will see a bigger drop-off in their supporting cast than Stroud. Reynolds viewed the third quarterback taken and the direct bet to go fourth overall as strong value plays.
It’s not all rainbows and blue skies though, as Larky made similar bets — at similar odds — with Young when the Alabama signal caller was the favorite to go No. 2 overall. It’s almost certain Young goes No. 1 overall, so the bets on Young to go third are all but dead.
4. Stroud Fourth Overall Pick (Reynolds)
Odds: +3500 (2.8 percent)
With a similar theme to the discussion above, Reynolds was skeptical regarding Stroud’s talent and the rumors he could go as high as No. 1 overall. Stroud is now +200 (33.3 percent) to go fourth off the board.
5. Richardson UNDER 4.5 Draft Position (Racz)
Odds: +250 (28.6 percent)
Racz made this bet once Levis picked up steam to be the second pick, behind Young at No. 1. He knew the Indianapolis Colts would most likely select a quarterback, and they have not been interested in Stroud throughout this process. There is a decent chance a team like the Tennessee Titans moves up into the top four to select Richardson, too. This bet is now off the board at DraftKings.
6. Eagles Select OL With First Pick (Reynolds)
Odds: +500 (16.7 percent) and -140 (58.3 percent)
Reynolds and Racz bet this once early at +500 (16.7 percent), and then Reynolds took it again last week at -140 (58.3 percent) when Joe Banner discussed the Philadelphia Eagles and their likely draft strategy on our podcast. Cornerback was still unresolved for the Eagles when this bet was made, which is why this was a half-unit play instead of a full unit.
Ultimately, Philadelphia is a well-run organization that, historically, builds through the trenches. If Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter (scouting report) slides, it would be surprising if he’s not an Eagle. Assuming he’s gone when the Eagles pick, one of the top three offensive line prospects will likely be on the board at No. 10.
Banner is uniquely positioned to analyze the Eagles, especially considering he hired Howie Roseman. Banner has a better understanding of how that organization operates than virtually anyone on the planet that isn’t working for the team. Additionally, one of Reynolds' mantras is: When smart people speak matter of factly, it’s in your best interest to listen.
Despite already having this option at a much better number, Reynolds sometimes makes a second bet like this when new information comes to light. When Reynolds already leaning in a certain direction and one of our NFL insiders (Banner) effectively backs up that stance, it's a bet worth taking.
7. Commanders Select QB With First Pick (Larky)
Odds: +2000 (4.8 percent)
Larky took this after analyzing the Washington Commanders’ depth chart and the way this draft likely flows. Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett are not enough to compete in the loaded NFC East.
Stroud falling on draft day is a real possibility, and the Commanders are a team that could trade up for him. Additionally, Hendon Hooker (scouting report) is sometimes mocked to Washington at Pick 16. This is now +1100 (8.3 percent) on DraftKings.
8. Giants Select CB With First Pick (Racz, Reynolds)
Odds: +450 (18.2 percent)
Reynolds tailed Racz on this bet weeks ago at +450 (18.2 percent). You could argue cornerback is the New York Giants' biggest need. If a corner they like is available when they are on the clock, there's a strong chance New York takes them. Wide receiver is the other most likely option for the Giants, making wide receiver vs. cornerback close to a coin flip. This line is in the +140 (41.7 percent) range, making our original bet a fantastic value play.
9. Jets Select Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Larky)
Odds: +2200 (4.4 percent)
Larky took this bet last week. Since the Green Bay Packers never drafted Aaron Rodgers a Round 1 wide receiver, part of the New York Jets’ appeal to Rodgers may have involved getting him more skill position talent. Larky assumed once Rodgers officially became a Jet, these odds would change in his favor. The Jets’ pick is roughly around where Jaxon Smith-Njigba (scouting report) is being mocked, and after trading away Elijah Moore, they are missing a true No. 2 wide receiver.
Following the Rodgers trade, the Jets have pick No. 15 (from the Packers), so they are still in range to snag Smith-Njigba — assuming a team like the Packers didn’t trade up to pick No. 13 to take him themselves. This line now sits at +700 (12.5 percent).
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