Analysis
10/25/23
8 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 8 Projections: Lamar Jackson Ascends to QB1
Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 8 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and projected rank.
Write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.
Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Att. | Comp. | PsYds | PsTD | Rush | RshYds | RshTDs | FFPTs | Rank |
| Lamar Jackson | 28 | 20 | 238 | 1.4 | 9 | 50 | 0.7 | 22.8 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 32 | 22 | 253 | 1.6 | 9 | 41 | 0.6 | 22.5 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 39 | 27 | 310 | 2.3 | 3 | 21 | 0.1 | 22.4 | 3 |
| Josh Allen | 37 | 26 | 286 | 2.2 | 5 | 24 | 0.3 | 22.3 | 4 |
| Justin Herbert | 38 | 26 | 298 | 2.5 | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 21.1 | 5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 33 | 24 | 288 | 2.1 | 2 | 5 | 0.1 | 19.3 | 6 |
| Jared Goff | 36 | 24 | 255 | 2.0 | 2 | 5 | 0.3 | 18.3 | 7 |
| C.J. Stroud | 36 | 22 | 275 | 1.7 | 3 | 16 | 0.2 | 18.3 | 8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 35 | 24 | 244 | 1.4 | 5 | 30 | 0.3 | 18.3 | 9 |
| Dak Prescott | 34 | 23 | 229 | 2.1 | 2 | 9 | 0.2 | 17.8 | 10 |
| Russell Wilson | 31 | 20 | 204 | 1.9 | 4 | 31 | 0.1 | 17.5 | 11 |
| Kirk Cousins | 37 | 25 | 255 | 2.0 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 | 17.2 | 12 |
| Brock Purdy | 30 | 21 | 253 | 1.7 | 2 | 3 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 13 |
| Jordan Love | 31 | 17 | 208 | 1.8 | 3 | 13 | 0.2 | 16.3 | 14 |
| Matthew Stafford | 36 | 23 | 274 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 0.1 | 16.0 | 15 |
| Deshaun Watson | 34 | 21 | 214 | 1.3 | 4 | 19 | 0.3 | 15.8 | 16 |
| Desmond Ridder | 32 | 20 | 236 | 1.3 | 4 | 14 | 0.1 | 15.0 | 17 |
| Joe Burrow | 37 | 23 | 219 | 1.7 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 | 14.9 | 18 |
| Baker Mayfield | 33 | 22 | 229 | 1.4 | 4 | 15 | 0.1 | 14.8 | 19 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 22 | 231 | 1.4 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 14.7 | 20 |
| Sam Howell | 31 | 21 | 202 | 1.2 | 3 | 21 | 0.2 | 14.4 | 21 |
| Bryce Young | 39 | 24 | 218 | 1.5 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 22 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 31 | 21 | 218 | 1.5 | 2 | 7 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 23 |
| Tyson Bagent | 34 | 24 | 215 | 1.2 | 3 | 12 | 0.3 | 14.1 | 24 |
| Mac Jones | 36 | 23 | 227 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 0.1 | 14.1 | 25 |
| Gardner Minshew | 35 | 22 | 225 | 1.4 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 14.0 | 26 |
| Daniel Jones | 34 | 22 | 193 | 1.0 | 6 | 29 | 0.2 | 13.9 | 27 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 31 | 19 | 166 | 1.1 | 6 | 35 | 0.2 | 13.9 | 28 |
| Derek Carr | 33 | 22 | 207 | 1.6 | 0 | 2 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 29 |
| Kenny Pickett | 31 | 19 | 204 | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | 0.3 | 13.2 | 30 |
| Zach Wilson | 30 | 18 | 182 | 1.4 | 3 | 11 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 31 |
| Will Levis | 29 | 17 | 165 | 1.1 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 32 |
Lamar Jackson (QB1), Baltimore Ravens
Up until last week, Lamar Jackson hadn’t lived up to his QB3 draft price. After totaling 33.9 fantasy points in a blowout vs. the Detroit Lions, there’s reason to believe Jackson is going to continue to impress in the air and on the ground. In Week 8, Jackson faces the Arizona Cardinals, who are allowing the second-most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, as well as the fourth-most fantasy points. The Baltimore Ravens likely won’t have to rely on Jackson to do it all against this defense, but he’s certainly primed for another huge week.
C.J. Stroud (QB8), Houston Texans
Rested up after a bye, C.J. Stroud is in a good position to pick up right where he left off. Through Weeks 2-7, Stroud is the QB9 by points per game. The Carolina Panthers defense isn’t particularly impressive; they’ve allowed just under 16 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but they haven’t faced any particularly impressive signal callers. What’s notable is this defense is allowing five percent more yards per attempt (YPA) than the league-average quarterback (despite Derek Carr’s 6.7 YPA in Week 2), and safeties Xavier Woods and Vonn Bell may not see the field due to their injuries. Stroud is available in 44 percent of ESPN leagues and makes for a top streaming option.
Joe Burrow (QB18), Cincinnati Bengals
We’ve all expected more from Joe Burrow this season, but he’s unfortunately the per-game QB29 through seven weeks. We know what to expect from Joe Burrow when healthy: He’s a top-5 quarterback. Until he returns to form, my model can be nothing but optimistic. Burrow was the QB7 in Weeks 5 and 6 ahead of his bye week, but against this San Fransisco 49ers defense, it’s tough to continue to be optimistic. Just two of seven starting quarterbacks topped 15 fantasy points against San Francisco’s defense; Burrow is projected for 14.9.
Wide Receivers
| Player | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 8 | 114 | 0.7 | 19.8 | 23.6 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 12 | 9 | 106 | 0.8 | 19.7 | 24.2 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 12 | 8 | 100 | 0.7 | 18.0 | 22.0 | 3 |
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 7 | 107 | 0.5 | 17.3 | 20.6 | 4 |
| Cooper Kupp | 12 | 8 | 103 | 0.5 | 17.2 | 21.1 | 5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10 | 7 | 79 | 0.6 | 15.3 | 19.0 | 6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 6 | 81 | 0.6 | 14.9 | 17.6 | 7 |
| Puka Nacua | 11 | 7 | 91 | 0.3 | 14.5 | 17.9 | 8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 7 | 78 | 0.4 | 14.0 | 17.5 | 9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9 | 6 | 81 | 0.6 | 14.7 | 15.8 | 10 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0.4 | 13.6 | 16.6 | 11 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 5 | 73 | 0.6 | 13.5 | 16.0 | 12 |
| Jordan Addison | 8 | 5 | 70 | 0.6 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 13 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 6 | 70 | 0.5 | 13.0 | 14.9 | 14 |
| Mike Evans | 9 | 6 | 78 | 0.4 | 13.0 | 15.9 | 15 |
| Nico Collins | 8 | 5 | 78 | 0.4 | 12.9 | 15.5 | 16 |
| DJ Moore | 10 | 7 | 75 | 0.3 | 12.8 | 16.2 | 17 |
| Marquise Brown | 9 | 5 | 54 | 0.7 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 18 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 5 | 71 | 0.4 | 12.0 | 14.4 | 19 |
| George Pickens | 8 | 5 | 71 | 0.3 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 20 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 6 | 63 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 15.1 | 21 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 5 | 61 | 0.5 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 22 |
| Amari Cooper | 9 | 5 | 62 | 0.4 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 23 |
| Chris Godwin | 9 | 6 | 63 | 0.3 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 24 |
| Josh Palmer | 7 | 5 | 59 | 0.5 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 25 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 5 | 61 | 0.5 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 26 |
| Chris Olave | 8 | 5 | 63 | 0.4 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 27 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 8 | 5 | 58 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 28 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 5 | 53 | 0.4 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 29 |
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 4 | 63 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 30 |
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 5 | 53 | 0.5 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 31 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 4 | 65 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 32 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 5 | 57 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 33 |
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 5 | 55 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 34 |
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 5 | 57 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 35 |
| Elijah Moore | 8 | 5 | 55 | 0.2 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 36 |
| Diontae Johnson | 8 | 5 | 64 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 37 |
| Josh Downs | 8 | 5 | 57 | 0.3 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 38 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 4 | 55 | 0.4 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 39 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0.4 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 40 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 7 | 4 | 46 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 41 |
| Drake London | 7 | 4 | 49 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 42 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 5 | 50 | 0.2 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 43 |
| K.J. Osborn | 6 | 4 | 42 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 44 |
| Christian Watson | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.5 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 45 |
| Robert Woods | 8 | 4 | 45 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 46 |
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 4 | 37 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 47 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 3 | 20 | 0.2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 48 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 3 | 35 | 0.4 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 49 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 2 | 37 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 50 |
| DJ Chark | 6 | 3 | 45 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 51 |
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 52 |
| Skyy Moore | 4 | 3 | 33 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 53 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 54 |
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 4 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 55 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 56 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 4 | 38 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 57 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 6 | 4 | 30 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 58 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 3 | 34 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 59 |
| Jayden Reed | 6 | 3 | 37 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 60 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 61 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 4 | 34 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 62 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 63 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 64 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 65 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 4 | 26 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 66 |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 67 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 68 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 69 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 70 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 2 | 25 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 71 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 72 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 73 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 74 |
Jordan Addison (WR13), Minnesota Vikings
Until Justin Jefferson returns from IR, Jordan Addison should be treated like a king. Addison’s 27.8 fantasy points slot him in as Week 7’s fantasy WR1 despite being out-targeted by TE T.J. Hockenson 12-10. Hockenson and Addison are elite fantasy assets in Jefferson’s absence, but Addison’s ceiling becomes so much higher when you recognize that nine wide receivers had more targets than Addison in Week 7, and he didn’t even have the most targets on his team. There are only a few wide receivers I’d feel comfortable starting over Addison until Jefferson returns.
Christian Kirk (WR14), Jacksonville Jaguars
I wrote up why Christian Kirk is being modeled as the WR1 for the Jacksonville Jaguars a few weeks back, and that should be what we’ve all come to agree with moving forward. In Week 8, Kirk faces a Pittsburgh Steelers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Jacksonville is projected for 29 rush attempts (the average team is running the ball 26 times this season). Calvin Ridley is projected for seven targets, but Kirk is still in must-start territory against this defense.
Nico Collins (WR16), Houston Texans
Quietly, Nico Collins is the WR12 in points per game through Week 7. I wrote about Stroud’s matchup in the quarterback portion of the article, and most of that translates over to Collins. Teams starting WRs Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf and Josh Reynolds (in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s absence) averaged 16 points against this Carolina defense. With the Panthers’ secondary banged up and Collins looking to have a real-deal connection with Stroud, I can’t recommend Collins in Week 8 enough.
Running Backs
| Player | Rushes | RushYards | RushTDs | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 101 | 0.6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 17.9 | 18.9 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 19 | 85 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 17.8 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 67 | 0.6 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 0.3 | 15.4 | 17.0 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 71 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.1 | 15.4 | 16.8 | 4 |
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 69 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.2 | 15.3 | 17.0 | 5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 47 | 0.5 | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0.3 | 15.2 | 16.9 | 6 |
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 80 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0.2 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 7 |
| Breece Hall | 15 | 80 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 15.2 | 16.2 | 8 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 18 | 70 | 0.9 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.0 | 15.1 | 16.1 | 9 |
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 65 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0.2 | 15.1 | 16.7 | 10 |
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 56 | 0.4 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 0.2 | 14.8 | 17.5 | 11 |
| Raheem Mostert | 16 | 70 | 0.8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 14.8 | 15.7 | 12 |
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 59 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0.2 | 14.2 | 15.9 | 13 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 79 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.2 | 13.7 | 14.6 | 14 |
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 69 | 0.7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 13.6 | 14.4 | 15 |
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 73 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 16 |
| Rachaad White | 17 | 72 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 17 |
| James Cook | 14 | 64 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 18 |
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 62 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 19 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 14 | 66 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 14.1 | 20 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 18 | 61 | 0.6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0.1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 21 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 37 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0.1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 22 |
| Najee Harris | 14 | 53 | 0.6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 23 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 56 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 24 |
| Dameon Pierce | 14 | 54 | 0.6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 25 |
| Gus Edwards | 15 | 64 | 0.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 26 |
| Alexander Mattison | 15 | 59 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 27 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 35 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0.1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 28 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 36 | 0.5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0.1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 29 |
| Kareem Hunt | 12 | 39 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 30 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 42 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 31 |
| Zack Moss | 10 | 41 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 32 |
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 37 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 33 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 39 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 34 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 33 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 35 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 36 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 36 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 31 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 37 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 27 | 0.2 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 39 |
| A.J. Dillon | 10 | 30 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 40 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | 4 | 15 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 41 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 6 | 28 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 42 |
| Emari Demercado | 8 | 32 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 43 |
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 24 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 44 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 10 | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0.2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 45 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 14 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 46 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | 11 | 43 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 47 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 31 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 48 |
| Cam Akers | 7 | 27 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 49 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 21 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 50 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 22 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 51 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 52 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 6 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 53 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 4 | 15 | 0.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 54 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 20 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 55 |
| Royce Freeman | 9 | 33 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 56 |
| Craig Reynolds | 8 | 31 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 57 |
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB3), Detroit Lions
The data didn’t look great for Jahmyr Gibbs entering Week 7 given his hamstring injury, but Gibbs outperformed the historical data. David Montgomery is likely to be sidelined again in Week 8, meaning there’s no reason Gibbs shouldn't be able to live up to a repeat performance. After all, the Ravens had been one of the best teams against the run until Gibbs finished as the RB5 against them last week. It’s hard to see Gibbs taking a step back from the bell cow role until Montgomery returns, meaning he’s a weekly starter until then.
Bijan Robinson (RB10), Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson was a weekly top 5 projected running back up until this point. His Week 7 performance left fantasy managers upset and confused after he totaled just one touch. Statistically, week-to-week fluctuations in carries don’t hold much weight after one poor week, but Robinson is still only projected four more carries than Tyler Allgeier. Robinson should still be treated like a top-5 running back this week against the Tennessee Titans, but it’s reasonable to be a bit more apprehensive than usual.
Alvin Kamara (RB11), New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is the projected RB11 in half-PPR leagues, but in PPR, he is projected as the RB3. Since his return from suspension, Kamara has 35 receptions. The next closest New Orleans Saints player doesn’t even have half that (Chris Olave has 17). Kamara’s usage will certainly die down; his 22.1 touches per game in 2021 is his career-high, and he averages 26 touches per game this season. The return of Jamaal Williams didn’t slow down Kamara much; his 29 touches were the most he’s had all season.
Tight Ends
| Player | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | FPPR | Rank |
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 7 | 74 | 0.7 | 14.9 | 18.3 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 10 | 8 | 61 | 0.6 | 13.5 | 17.4 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 4 | 56 | 0.5 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 3 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0.4 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 4 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 5 | 58 | 0.4 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 7 | 5 | 40 | 0.3 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 6 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 5 | 46 | 0.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 7 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 5 | 48 | 0.1 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 8 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 4 | 33 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 9 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0.2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 10 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 11 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 4 | 37 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 12 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 3 | 42 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 13 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 14 |
| Luke Musgrave | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 15 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 16 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 17 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 18 |
| Durham Smythe | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 19 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 20 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 21 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 22 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 5 | 3 | 23 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 23 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 24 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 25 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 26 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 2 | 19 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 27 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 3 | 21 | 0.1 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 28 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 29 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 30 |
Dalton Kincaid (TE6), Buffalo Bills
Without TE Dawson Knox on the field, Dalton Kincaid has a 23.3 percent target share this season, a number that ranks behind only Travis Kelce in tight end team target shares (Kelce’s is 26.3 percent). The Buffalo Bills are likely to run fewer plays out of 12 personnel now that Knox is on IR. QB Josh Allen has been particularly effective in 12 personnel groupings (he’s only been better in 21 sets). Kincaid certainly has the potential to be a top-half tight end moving forward, and Week 8 will tell us what we need to know.
Trey McBride (TE8), Arizona Cardinals
In the same boat as Kincaid, Trey McBride has a 24.1 percent target share this season without Zach Ertz on the field (again, this would rank second behind only Kelce). The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t been as effective as the Bills’ this season, but McBride could be a sneaky waiver add this week given Kyler Murray’s looming return. McBride has the potential to be a second-half breakout this season.
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