Fantasy
12/20/23
13 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 16: Players To Start, Sit
Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds present The 33rd Team’s start-sit column for Week 16.
Full fantasy rankings can be found here.
Quarterback
Start: Justin Fields (QB4) vs. Cardinals
Justin Fields totaled fewer than 12 fantasy points in Week 15 against the Cleveland Browns, but it’s a very different environment in Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals. While the Browns are one of the toughest matchups for fantasy quarterbacks, the Cardinals are the eighth-easiest matchup when adjusting for schedule.
While quarterbacks score 2.3 fewer fantasy points against Cleveland than their season average, they score 2.1 more fantasy points against the Cardinals. That’s a delta of 4.4 fantasy points in Fields’ favor this week.
Quietly, the Chicago Bears' offense has the eighth-highest implied team total (over 24 points) in the betting markets — you can partially thank the Cardinals for allowing 27 points per game to opponents this season. To Fields’ credit, his usage has been excellent. Our expected fantasy points model thinks Fields should have at least 18 fantasy points in every game since he returned from injury.
He’s averaged 33 pass attempts and 12 rush attempts per game during this monthlong stretch, and that should translate into 20-25 fantasy points in Week 16. For context, Jalen Hurts has averaged 31 pass attempts and 10 carries per game, while Lamar Jackson has averaged 31 pass attempts and 11 carries per game in the same stretch.
Fields’ unique usage profile should catapult fantasy managers to the championship round this week.
Start: Baker Mayfield (QB9) vs. Jaguars
Baker Mayfield has played well all year, and he’s on pace for more than 4,000 passing yards and nearly 30 passing touchdowns.
He’s reached 16 fantasy points in seven of his past nine games, with the two misses being against the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers — both are bottom-four in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks when adjusting for schedule. Mayfield has topped 20 fantasy points in his past two games, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now in the driver’s seat for the NFC South crown.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ pass defense has struggled all season, and quarterbacks score 2.7 more fantasy points against that unit than their season average. Mayfield himself has averaged 17.3 points, so we can reasonably expect around 20 fantasy points from him in this matchup.
Sit: Russell Wilson (QB15) vs. Patriots
Russell Wilson has appeared in the "start" section of this column before, but a matchup against the New England Patriots is as tough as it gets. Because New England’s offense struggles to manufacture points (13.3 per game, last in the NFL), game environments involving the Patriots are often low-scoring.
Overall, the Patriots are the third-toughest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks when adjusting for schedule. Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa are all notable quarterbacks held to less than 16 fantasy points against Bill Belichick and company.
The Denver Broncos have tried to rely on their run game whenever possible, and Wilson has already been held to less than 225 passing yards in 11 of 14 games. The game total has hovered around 34 points all week, by far the lowest among all Week 16 games.
We don’t see a realistic ceiling for the Broncos’ passing offense, and Wilson is not on the fantasy QB1 radar this week.
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Running Back
Start: Chuba Hubbard (RB15) vs. Packers
Chuba Hubbard has at least 22 carries in all three games since coach Frank Reich was fired. For context, Miles Sanders never reached 20 carries in a game this year. The passing offense has failed to reach 200 yards in seven straight games, and against a run-funnel Green Bay Packers team, the game plan should start and end with Hubbard.
The Packers allow 1.9 more fantasy points per game to running back rooms than expected (ninth-best), and their 105 rushing yards allowed to running backs per game is the fourth-most in the NFL.
Hubbard has at least 11.6 PPR fantasy points in each of his past three games, with a high watermark of 22.4 fantasy points during that span. His floor is strong, as he’s totaled at least 24 touches and 96 total yards in his past three games. The great matchup takes this play home for us. Start Hubbard against Green Bay in Week 16.
Start: Ty Chandler (RB20) vs. Lions
Ty Chandler is built more like a wide receiver than a running back, standing at 5-foot-11 and weighing 204 pounds. Coupled with his wheels — he had 4.38 40-yard time — Chandler profiles like a change-of-pace back rather than a workhorse.
While we expected him to dominate backfield touches last week because of Alexander Mattison’s high ankle sprain, we thought Chandler's touch ceiling would get capped around 15. Instead, he handled 23 of 24 running back carries and all four running back targets. Those 27 opportunities translated to 157 yards and 24.7 PPR fantasy points.
The matchup against the Detroit Lions is tougher on paper, but it’s hard to see any other Minnesota Vikings running back eating into his workload. Kene Nwangwu has never totaled more than five carries in any NFL game in his three-year career, and he was the only other running back to touch the ball for Minnesota last week.
Even if the Lions jump out to an early lead, Chandler can still get there in fantasy through the passing game. He’s the rare running back who can still reach 15 fantasy points even if he doesn’t score a touchdown.
Sit: Saquon Barkley (RB27) vs. Eagles
Saquon Barkley’s fantasy production — in his past six games with Tommy DeVito as the starter — has been a roller coaster. He’s faced the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders and Packers during this stretch (all top-nine fantasy matchups) and reached 14 PPR fantasy points in each game.
His other three contests were against the Dallas Cowboys, Patriots and New Orleans Saints; he failed to crack eight fantasy points in those three games. The Philadelphia Eagles are the toughest matchup for fantasy running backs this year when adjusting for schedule, allowing 5.3 fewer fantasy points than expected.
The New York Giants are 10-point underdogs, and Barkley doesn’t have a consistent receiving role with DeVito under center. Against the Commanders, Barkley had four receptions for 57 yards and two touchdowns. However, every team has shredded Washington's defense.
In his other five games with DeVito, Barkley has averaged just two receptions and 12 receiving yards. The floor is too low for us to advocate Barkley for as a fantasy start.
Sit: Antonio Gibson (RB30) vs. Jets
Antonio Gibson was expected to take on a larger role in Week 15 because Brian Robinson was sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Instead, Gibson kept his normal change-of-pace role, with Chris Rodriguez handling 10 carries to Gibson’s four. While Gibson was involved in the passing game, it’s tough to be fantasy-relevant with four carries and five targets.
Regardless of Robinson’s injury status, Gibson does not have a fruitful enough role to be worth the start. Having reached 13 fantasy points just once this year, he’s the classic player who fantasy analysts are higher on than his own team is.
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Wide Receiver
Start: Rashee Rice (WR14) vs. Raiders
Rashee Rice has at least nine targets, seven receptions and 64 receiving yards in his past four games. Last week, he ran a route on 95 percent of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks, the first time this year a Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver reached 90 percent in a game. During this four-game stretch, Rice has averaged 20.9 PPR fantasy points per game.
In a year where the Chiefs desperately need production from their receiving corps, it’s tough to see them moving away from Rice. The Chiefs have a real shot at the No. 1 seed and face backup quarterbacks in the next three weeks. Expect the Chiefs to feed Rice, even if RB Isiah Pacheco returns this week.
Don’t overthink it. Rice is the new top target in an offense led by Mahomes and should be started in all fantasy formats.
Start: Calvin Ridley (WR19) vs. Buccaneers
Zay Jones is week-to-week with a hamstring injury, and Christian Kirk is on injured reserve. Since Kirk exited after only one route in Week 13, Calvin Ridley’s usage has been superb.
In Week 13, he had 156 air yards on his eight targets. In Week 14, he had 166 air yards on 13 targets. And in Week 15, he had 164 air yards on 12 targets. That three-game span includes eight targets in the red zone, five of them coming in the end zone.
In our expected fantasy points model based on player usage, Ridley should have scored 19.2 PPR fantasy points per game these past three games instead of his 8.5 actual fantasy points per game.
Positive regression should hit Ridley this week against the Buccaneers, and it’s also a great matchup in its own right. Wide receiver rooms average 6.3 fantasy points above expectation against Tampa Bay, third-best in the league. With a hollowed-out wide receiver core and a pass funnel defense on tap, Ridley is a strong start in Week 16.
Note: If Trevor Lawrence misses this contest (concussion) and C.J. Beathard starts in his place, Ridley would move down slightly to around WR23.
Sit: Jordan Addison (WR31) vs. Lions
Since the Week 13 bye, Jordan Addison had a bust game in Week 14 and a boom game in Week 15. In Week 14, he commanded just three targets (nine percent target share) and caught two of them for 27 yards (22 air yards).
In Week 15, he caught all six targets (19 percent share) for 111 yards (53 air yards) and two scores. However, the long touchdown was more of a result of a broken play from the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense.
When we zoom out, it’s tough to start the fourth offensive option (behind Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Chandler) in a Nick Mullens offense. A wide receiver with a backup quarterback getting a small handful of targets per game shouldn’t be trusted for any kind of consistency down the stretch.
Sit: Curtis Samuel (WR42) vs. Jets
Curtis Samuel has come on strong in the past three games. He had 100 yards in Week 12, 65 yards in Week 13 (Week 14 bye) and then two scores in Week 15.
However, he was under seven fantasy points in the four prior games. Also, for the whole season, Samuel has averaged just less than six targets for 42 yards per game.
Our expected fantasy points model looks at usage, and given the handful of targets close to the line of scrimmage each week, Samuel should be the WR49 in fantasy points per game this season.
Samuel has averaged 11 PPR fantasy points per game (WR45), so he’s performing roughly with expectation. Rather than chase a couple of big games late in the season, we should sit the non-primary wide receiver on a Sam Howell offense facing a New York Jets defense that shuts down opposing wideouts.
When adjusting for schedule and opponents, wide receiver rooms average more than 13 fewer fantasy points than expected against the Jets. Sit Samuel this week.
Sit: Josh Palmer (WR45) vs. Bills
Josh Palmer returned from injured reserve with a bang, catching four passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. However, there are a couple of asterisks at play here.
Seventy-nine of his yards and his touchdown came on a broken play where the Raiders' secondary gift-wrapped the score when Las Vegas was up by 50 points. The other issue is Palmer’s four total targets represented just a 13 percent share, even in a game Keenan Allen missed with an injury.
Whether or not Allen suits up, Palmer is a risky start against a Buffalo Bills secondary that’s unlikely to have the mental lapse Las Vegas did last week. The Bills are playing at a high level, and they should dominate the Los Angeles Chargers in all phases of this game.
The Chargers have an implied team total of just 14 points, the lowest among all teams in Week 16, and for good reason. Fade Easton Stick’s offense in its first game without recently fired coach Brandon Staley.
Full fantasy rankings can be found here.
Tight End
Start: Darren Waller (TE10) vs. Eagles
Darren Waller returned from injured reserve in Week 15 and finished second on the Giants with six targets, catching four of them for 40 yards. However, he was eased back into action. He only ran 22 routes to Darius Slayton’s 44 and Wan’Dale Robinson’s 43.
Waller was targeted on a team-high 27 percent of his routes, and he operated close to the line of scrimmage, with an average target depth of only five yards.
The Eagles' pass rush should overwhelm a New York offensive line that’s ceded at least five sacks in five of its past six games. Expect Waller to run more routes this week and be heavily involved as the team’s safety blanket.
Philadelphia has struggled against tight ends this year, ranking as the 10th-friendliest matchup to the position when adjusting for opponents faced.
Sit: Pat Freiermuth (TE19) vs. Bengals
Pat Freiermuth has scored less than six PPR fantasy points in the past three games, catching passes primarily from Mitchell Trubisky. This Week 16 game will feature a quarterback switch; Mason Rudolph will be under center.
The guy backing up Trubisky should not be trusted, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have thrown for less than 200 passing yards in three straight games. The Steelers’ game plan likely focuses on the running back tandem of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, passing as minimally as possible.
The Bengals' offense should also be without Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder), so points should be hard to come by on both sides.
Freiermuth has target shares of at least 15 percent each of the past three games, so the problem is not him but rather his offensive environment. Freiermuth is a popular streamer this week because the Bengals are giving up four more fantasy points per game to tight ends than expected, the highest in the NFL.
Even if Freiermuth continues this trend, he’s only had 5.1 fantasy points per game in the past three weeks since Kenny Pickett sprained his ankle. It’s hard to see sitting Freiermuth burn you this week, and we’d recommend Hunter Henry and Tucker Kraft as better streaming options in Week 16.
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