Fantasy

12/19/23

5 min read

2023 NFL Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Josh Larky, Kev Wheeler & Matthew Hill

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Below, you’ll find 2023 Week 16 fantasy football rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues. There are 32 ranked quarterbacks, 50 running backs, 62 wide receivers and 26 tight ends.

On Thursday, Matthew Hill and Kev Wheeler’s rankings will be added, and positional rankings will then be ordered by averaging the rankings from the three of us. There also are the top-12 defense rankings from Ryan Reynolds.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup and implied team total according to Las Vegas sportsbooks. Starting in Week 13, you can view the adjusted fantasy points of each player’s coming matchup. For example, WR Mike Evans faces a Jacksonville Jaguars defense ranking sixth in fantasy points allowed. When adjusting for schedule, wide receiver rooms average 3.9 more fantasy points against the Jaguars than they do in their typical matchup.

Meanwhile, xPPR (expected PPR points) looks strictly at usage rather than a player’s ability. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on the touches they get.

The "Proj." column in the table (projected fantasy points, added Wednesday) is courtesy of our data scientist, Ahaan Rungta. His projections won’t fully align with the fantasy rankings, but they're another good piece of the puzzle to consider.

Detailed player write-ups appear below each set of positional rankings for additional context and will be updated throughout the week as injuries and other news come out.

Be sure to check out our Week 16 Waiver Wire article here.

Join our FREE Discord for help with start-sits, trades and general fantasy advice each week. We’ll also drop player prop bets and DFS strategy throughout the season.

Week 16 Fantasy Rankings

Top 32 Quarterbacks

• Justin Fields was held to under 12 fantasy points last week against the Cleveland Browns, but the Arizona Cardinals this week provide an entirely different game environment. The Cardinals are the eighth-easiest matchup for quarterbacks when adjusting for schedule, allowing 2.1 more fantasy points than expected. Whereas the Browns' defense limits QBs to 2.3 fewer fantasy points than expected. Find more reasons to start Fields this week in our detailed start-sit column.
• Baker Mayfield is a fantasy QB1 this week, facing a Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense that’s struggled all season. Mayfield has reached 16 fantasy points in seven of his past nine games, with the two misses being against bottom-four matchups. The Jaguars are a top-five matchup, and Mayfield is coming off back-to-back games with at least 20 fantasy points.
• We’ve been riding with Russell Wilson as a fringe fantasy QB1 for much of this season, but Week 16 is not the time to fire him up. The New England Patriots score the fewest points per game in the NFL (13.3), and these game environments become lethargic on both ends. Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa have all been held under 16 fantasy points against Bill Belichick’s defense this year.
• Joe Flacco is one of two quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford) to throw for at least 250 yards and multiple touchdowns in Weeks 13, 14, and 15. He’s attempted at least 44 passes in each game and now faces a Texans defense that’s been very friendly to opponents in the fantasy points department.

Top 50 Running Backs

• James Cook’s role has blossomed since offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired.

• Chuba Hubbard has at least 24 touches and 96 total yards in all three games since head coach Frank Reich was fired. He now faces a Packers run defense ceding 105 rushing yards per game to running backs (fourth-highest). We discussed him more in-depth in our start-sit column.
• James Conner has been rolling in recent weeks in the run game, and his team is likely short-handed in the passing department, with Marquise Brown not practicing this week. Expect the Cardinals and their surprisingly solid offensive line to try to bully the Chicago Bears on the ground all day.
• Bijan Robinson handled just seven carries and three targets last week, finishing with 14 total yards and 2.4 PPR fantasy points. However, in his four prior games, he had at least 17 combined carries and targets in each one. Against an Indianapolis Colts defense allowing 5.4 more fantasy points to RB rooms than expected, we are all allowed to go back to the well on Robinson.
• Ty Chandler handled 23 of 24 RB carries and all four RB targets last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are not a particularly easy matchup for fantasy running backs. He has another tough test against Detroit, but we’re confident in his role and love his elite breakaway speed (4.38 40-time).
• Austin Ekeler is one of the highest-variance RBs for Week 16. Last week, Isaiah Spiller handled 16 carries to Ekeler’s five. Ekeler did catch four of six targets for 29 yards, but it was incredibly concerning to see Spiller’s rushing role — he had all three red zone rush attempts, too. The prior week, with Easton Stick at QB, Ekeler handled 10 carries and seven targets, topping 20 fantasy points. There is no floor here, but it’s hard to imagine the Chargers completely phasing him out for the second straight week.
• Saquon Barkley is a risky start against the Philadelphia Eagles this week. He’s played three games with QB Tommy DeVito against top-nine matchups, and he delivered at least 14 fantasy points each time. In three games against tougher opponents with DeVito, Barkley has been under eight points in each game. The Eagles are the toughest opponent for fantasy RBs, and Barkley’s receiving role has diminished with DeVito, providing him fewer outs in what should be a blowout.
• Antonio Gibson looked poised for a big role last week in Brian Robinson’s absence. Instead, he had just four carries to Chris Rodriguez’s 10 and was targeted five times. Gibson is just a change of pace back still, and he shouldn’t be started in most formats.
• With the Tennessee Titans mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and Derrick Henry’s future with the Titans in doubt, Tyjae Spears may see more work against the Seahawks. Spears has at least 10 touches in three straight games.

Top 62 Wide Receivers

• Rashee Rice has at least nine targets, seven receptions and 64 yards in four straight games. He ran a season-high 95 percent of the routes last week, and he has averaged 21 PPR fantasy points per game the past month. Travis Kelce has started showing his age, and there’s no reason for the Chiefs to pull back on the ascendant receiver’s new role. We have him as a strong start this week via our start-sit column.
• DeAndre Hopkins started the year slowly, but has been a different receiver from Week 5 onward. Since then, he’s averaged 8.5 targets, 70 yards, 139 air yards and 15 fantasy points per game. Ryan Tannehill draws the start this week and should provide stability and accuracy for Hopkins. The Seahawks also rank as the 11th-best matchup for fantasy WRs after adjusting for schedule.
• Calvin Ridley is a great start this week, even if Trevor Lawrence (concussion) is unable to go.

• Without Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins is a solid volume bet against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Jake Browning playing above expectation. Tyler Boyd is also a strong start, with the Steelers allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the slot this year.
• Garrett Wilson is a terrifying player to start this week, with Zach Wilson still in concussion protocol. It’s hard to see him taking advantage of the Washington Commanders' secondary when Trevor Siemian is likely under center. Wilson averaged seven targets, four receptions and just 41 yards in the three games Siemian/Tim Boyle started this year.
• Jordan Addison has three and six targets over the past two weeks, for 22 and 53 air yards, respectively. He scored twice last week, and most of his 111 yards were from broken plays. He’s a risky start as the fourth option in a Nick Mullens offense.
• We are well below consensus on Jakobi Meyers this week. Aidan O’Connell has been the full-time starter for Las Vegas since Week 9, and Meyers is averaging just 4.8 targets and 41 receiving yards per game in the past six games. The Kansas City Chiefs are also one of the NFL’s best pass defenses this season.
• Despite strong performances in his past three games, Curtis Samuel is not a slam dunk start. Samuel has averaged fewer than six targets and only 42 yards per game for the season. My expected fantasy points model has him at WR49 per game, while he’s scoring only marginally better at WR45 per game.
• Even with Keenan Allen ruled out, Josh Palmer is not a strong start. Last week, without Allen, Palmer only had four targets (13 percent share). Seventy-nine of his 113 yards were gift-wrapped to him by the Raiders secondary on a broken play, after the Raiders were already up by 50 points on the Chargers.

Top 26 Tight Ends

• Trey McBride has averaged 9.1 targets, 7.3 receptions, 77 receiving yards and 16.6 PPR fantasy points per game over the past seven games. No TE should be started over him right now, regardless of the matchup. Marquise Brown (heel) being unlikely to suit up only makes McBride’s volume more tantalizing.
• With Christian Kirk on IR and Zay Jones week-to-week with a hamstring injury, Evan Engram is in line for heavy volume against a Buccaneers team that has struggled to cover both wide receivers and tight ends.
• Darren Waller is a good start this week. He returned from injury and caught four of six targets for 40 yards. Digging in deeper, his 22 routes run were the team clearly easing him back in, since Darius Slayton ran 44 routes while Wan’Dale Robinson ran 43. Waller was targeted on a team-high 27 percent of his routes, and the Eagles’ pass rush should overwhelm the Giants' offensive line, forcing DeVito to throw quick passes to Waller.
• Hunter Henry has 19 fantasy points in back-to-back games and now gets a Broncos team, allowing 3.5 more fantasy points per game to TEs than expected. However, he’s still a risky fantasy start, as he’s been under six fantasy points in eight of 14 games (57 percent) this year.

Top 12 Fantasy Defenses

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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Kev Wheeler

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Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.