Fantasy
11/22/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Thanksgiving Day DFS Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Thanksgiving has a three-game NFL slate, and I will break down each game below. As always, if you have questions be sure to throw them in our 33rd Team Discord.
Packers at Lions
Packers Offense
I am not looking to stack with Jordan Love given how much pressure the Detroit Lions got on him in their last matchup and how bad he’s been against teams that get pressure. However, there's an interest in the Green Bay Packers' pass-catchers.
There are two coverages I expect the Lions to play a lot. When the game is more competitive, they'll likely play a lot of Cover 3, which is where we've seen a lot of Christian Watson and Jayden Reed.
In a game script where the Lions capitalize early, I expect them to play a lot of Cover 4, which is where Romeo Dobbs has dominated this season. Luke Musgrave is out of the lineup, and I expect Tucker Kraft to be the main tight end. At his price, there will be a fine punt play at the position.
Aaron Jones will likely miss the game, but AJ Dillon has not run well this season, and the Lions have a much-improved run defense. I am not interested in this matchup.
Lions Offense
I’m not sure Jared Goff will need to air it out in this matchup, and I only have interest in Jameson Williams in the passing game. Williams has earned a bigger role in recent weeks, and there were ample opportunities down the field for the Los Angeles Chargers' offense last week against the Packers.
Green Bay could get CB Jaire Alexander back, and I would anticipate him attempting to shadow Amon-Ra St. Brown as much as he can. St. Brown will still see plenty of reps off motion away from Alexander, but I don’t anticipate him putting up the point total needed at his salary. Josh Reynolds is still playing above Williams, but he is projected to be much more popular.
The rushing attack is where I have most of my interest, and I am fine with both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Two weeks ago, we saw Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have 40.6 combined DraftKings points against Green Bay's rush defense, and the Lions have a much more explosive version of that.
The better they run the ball, the more opportunity there is we could see a big play to Williams off of play action. On a three-game slate, it’s plausible Montgomery and Gibbs find themself in the winning lineup.
Commanders at Cowboys
Commanders Offense
Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders anticipate facing a lot of Cover 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. Howell consistently looks to Terry McLaurin in man-coverage situations, so I am expecting a high volume of targets for the dynamic receiver.
Howell's mobility adds another layer against Cover 1; he leads quarterbacks in rushing yards against this coverage.
The Cowboys' strong defensive line will likely pressure Howell, making Curtis Samuel an option for quick passes and slowing the pass rush. Despite the Cowboys not allowing a 100-yard rusher this season, Antonio Gibson is a viable option in a Howell stack, though Gibson's availability hinges on a continuing injury concern.
I’d anticipate Gibson getting enough work to pay off his salary and aid in affording the Dak Prescott builds.
Cowboys Offense
The Cowboys' passing game is a strong option because it can exploit the Commanders' secondary vulnerabilities. In Dallas' "slot" formation, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup have been great.
Gallup, in particular, stands out due to Washington's struggles against deep passes. Double-stacking with Dak Prescott is key, and tripling down with three players is a viable and potentially lucrative strategy.
Despite Tony Pollard's lackluster season, he still plays a significant role in the Cowboys' backfield. The Commanders struggle against running backs in the passing game, making Pollard a good addition to Prescott-centric lineups.
Considering this slate is three games, having four Dallas players in the winning lineup is plausible, given the potential for high-scoring games. This strategic move maximizes the Cowboys' offensive strength and positions fantasy managers for success in what could be a lucrative fantasy outing.
49ers at Seahawks
49ers Offense
In this matchup, the San Francisco 49ers are expected to face a significant amount of Cover 3 from the Seattle Seahawks. Last season, Seattle leaned more toward Cover 2, leading to impressive performances from key players such as George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.
However, the dynamics have shifted this season, with the Seahawks employing a more robust, improved cornerback lineup, making this a challenge for the 49ers.
Brandon Aiyuk is consistently the primary target against Cover 3, and it looks like he will receive ample opportunities. The Seahawks have struggled against slot wide receivers, a weakness San Francisco could exploit despite not heavily relying on 11 personnel.
In these situations, keep an eye on Jauan Jennings, who might not see extensive playtime but could serve as a valuable GPP dart throw, especially if the 49ers find themselves in third-and-long scenarios or trailing.
On the defensive side, Seattle boasts an exceptional run defense this season. This makes a McCaffrey fade an intriguing play.
However, it's crucial to consider the Seahawks' vulnerability to running backs in the passing game, providing an avenue for the 49ers to exploit. This could lead to reps where Samuel is at targets at running back or McCaffrey getting as much work as possible.
Seahawks Offense
The Seahawks could have Drew Lock start this game, so the only players of interest are DK Metcalf and Zach Charbonnet. The 49ers have stopped blitzing, and the pass rush with Chase Young is getting pressure with ease.
Seattle needs to win in the trenches, rush the ball and get some play-action deep shots to Metcalf. I expect the Seahawks to try to slow this game down and sustain long drives.
With Kenneth Walker III likely out of the lineup, Charbonnet will see the full workload; he has been productive with the limited touches. The 49ers have a great run defense, but the unit did lose its best run-defending safety, and it will not take much on a three-game slate to pay off the salary.
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