Fantasy
11/23/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Targets, Fades for NFL Week 12
Thanksgiving is an elite holiday centered around family, food, and, of course, football. The Week 12 slate will kick off with the traditional trio of Thursday games while managers stuff their faces and give thanks, and will continue with a rare Black Friday game, then 12 games to be played over the course of Sunday and Monday.
Thanksgiving week also brings an additional reason to give thanks with a brief reprieve from byes, meaning rosters should be looking a tad less sparse.
Before the food coma sets in, be sure to set your lineups, because this could be a pivotal week for many leagues’ playoff pictures. Below, we will break down one player at each position to target (love) and one player at each position to avoid (hate) for your Week 12 fantasy football lineups based on matchups, injuries, strategies and more.
Players We Love This Week
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (vs. Rams)
Despite missing the first nine weeks of the season due to injury, Kyler Murray looked strong in his first two games. He logged another solid game for fantasy in Week 11 against the Houston Texans. He passed for 214 yards, rushed for another 51 yards, and scored a touchdown on the ground and through the air. The effort was good enough to finish in the top six at the position for the week after finishing as the QB13 in the week prior.
Murray should flirt with top 12 numbers each week moving forward, including this one, as the Arizona Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams, who are below average against fantasy quarterbacks.
Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers (at Titans)
Despite the Carolina Panthers’ worst efforts, Adam Thielen has been fantasy-relevant on a team you would be forgiven for assuming was tanking for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. Thielen has logged at least 11 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring in 70 percent of games this season, including last week in a brutal matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. The veteran wideout reeled in eight targets for 74 yards and finished as the WR24 for the week.
Thielen has a matchup on the opposite end of the spectrum in Week 12 as the Panthers face the Tennessee Titans on the road. The Titans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and were torched for 143 yards by Mike Evans and 103 yards by Calvin Ridley in back-to-back weeks. Thielen will be a high-end WR2 with a clear path to WR1 numbers in this highly favorable matchup.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers (at Bengals)
Jaylen Warren is slowly establishing himself as the alpha in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ two-man running back committee. In Week 11 against the Cleveland Browns, Warren rushed nine times for 129 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 16 yards. Najee Harris rushed 12 times for a dismal 35 yards and only accrued one yard on one catch.
Harris out-snapped Warren by a count of 33 to 26, but Harris is clearly the less efficient of the duo. He is averaging 3.9 yards per carry to Warren’s 6.2 and his usage in the passing game has been negligible. This will continue to be a timeshare, but Warren’s recent performance should translate into more snaps and touches moving forward. He should be considered a fringe-RB2 option with upside against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 20th against fantasy running backs.
David Njoku, TE, BRowns (at Broncos)
David Njoku saw 35 percent of Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s targets in Week 11 against the Steelers, which was nearly twice the amount of any other pass catcher. He reeled in 7 of 15 for 56 yards and finished top 12 at the position for the fifth week in a row.
At a position known for its volatility, highly targeted players are a rarity. Njoku is tied with Sam LaPorta as the fourth-most targeted player this year, trailing only T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce and Evan Engram. He will have the opportunity to extend his TE1 streak against the Denver Broncos, whose defense has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Players We Hate This Week
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders (at Cowboys)
Sam Howell managed to eke out yet another top-10 fantasy game last week against the New York Giants despite tossing a hat trick of interceptions in the loss. He completed 31-of-45 attempts for 255 yards, one touchdown and three picks but salvaged his day with three rushing attempts for 35 yards and a touchdown.
Howell has been a waiver wire savior for many fantasy managers, having finished top 10 or better in six of the last seven weeks. However, expectations should be lowered this week on the road against the Cowboys, who are allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game and have only allowed three 20-fantasy point games to quarterbacks. The matchup alone will knock Howell out of top-12 consideration.
Garrett Wilson, WR, JEts (vs. Dolphins)
The New York Jets could not replicate their surprising Week 1 success against the Buffalo Bills last week. The Jets lost 32-6, and Garrett Wilson was a complete dud in the game, tallying just 1.9 fantasy points in half-PPR, which were entirely erased by a fourth-quarter fumble. In fairness to Wilson, he had been listed as questionable heading into the game due to an elbow injury.
The fault here certainly rests more so with quarterback Zach Wilson, who threw for just 81 yards before being replaced by backup Tim Boyle in the third quarter. Boyle will get the start this week against the Miami Dolphins, though it remains to be seen if this substitution will be impactful on Garrett Wilson’s fantasy value. Given this suboptimal quarterback situation, Wilson is a boom-or-bust WR3 for Week 12.
Khalil Herbert, RB, BEars (at Vikings)
Khalil Herbert led the Chicago Bears’ backfield over D’Onta Foreman and Roshon Johnson in snaps, touches and scrimmage yards in his first game back from injury last week against the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, this workload did not translate into fantasy production, as Herbert logged 41 all-purpose yards in a game with minimal defense on both sides of the ball.
Herbert will face another tough opponent this week in a divisional home matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who are a top-five defense against fantasy running backs. The Vikings stymied Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams last week and have only allowed one big fantasy game to a running back all season. Herbert is a low-end RB3 option in light of the matchup, the Bears’ limited offense and this crowded backfield.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens (at Chargers)
Isaiah Likely is a popular Week 12 waiver wire add on the heels of Mark Andrews’ season-ending ankle injury. Likely was fantasy-relevant in the two games Andrews missed last season in Weeks 9 and 18 in which he finished as the TE9 and TE3 in half-PPR, respectively.
Likely was a fantasy non-factor in Week 1 of this season sans Andrews, however, and caught just one target for four yards. Andrews exited the game early in Week 11, and Likely caught neither of his two targets against the Cincinnati Bengals. He is a risky Week 12 play on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers and his fantasy value will most likely be touchdown-dependent.
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