Fantasy
11/16/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Targets, Fades for NFL Week 11
Week 10 came in like a lamb and out like a lion.
The slate kicked off with the Thursday night game absolutely no one asked for between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears, and it continued early Sunday morning in Germany with a low-scoring game between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.
Things ramped up quickly Sunday with numerous high-scoring games and upsets.
The Cleveland Browns came back to beat the Baltimore Ravens, while the Houston Texans quelled a valiant Cincinnati Bengals comeback attempt; the Detroit Lions bested the Los Angeles Chargers in a 79-point shootout; and the Seattle Seahawks came out on top over the Washington Commanders after a big fourth quarter from both sides.
The week ended with a drama-filled Monday night game featuring the Denver Broncos pulling an improbable road upset of the Buffalo Bills with a walk-off field goal.
As a reminder, the Atlanta Falcons, Colts, Patriots and New Orleans Saints have a Week 11 bye, meaning managers must find temporary replacements for all the skill players and quarterbacks for those teams.
Below, we will break down one player at each position to target (love) and one player at each position to avoid (hate) for your Week 11 fantasy football lineups based on matchups, injuries, strategies and more.
Players We Love This Week
Joshua Dobbs, QB, Vikings (at DEN)
The fantasy community owes Joshua Dobbs an apology. Expectations were low for the Year 4 quarterback and the Arizona Cardinals heading into the 2023 NFL season, with Kyler Murray beginning the year on the physically unable to perform list.
Dobbs was good, not great as the Cardinals’ signal-caller through eight weeks before being dealt to the Minnesota Vikings in the wake of Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury.
In the last three weeks, Dobbs is the fantasy QB2 behind Dak Prescott, who has been on fire recently. Dobbs handled a stout Saints defense decently last week, tossing a touchdown and rushing for another.
Even on the road against the Broncos, Dobbs is a viable streaming option with top-12 potential — especially if Justin Jefferson returns.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (vs. MIN)
Courtland Sutton is one of a handful of Broncos players who have overperformed this season. Sutton has nine or more fantasy points in half-PPR scoring in all but one game. The only time he didn’t was when he got the Sauce Gardner treatment against the New York Jets.
Sutton has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games and seven games total; he is the overall WR23 in half-PPR.
Sutton, who leads the team with a respectable 19.5 percent target share, appears to be Russell Wilson’s favorite weapon, while Jerry Jeudy, the fantasy WR57, has been a bit of an afterthought.
He is a high-floor WR3/flex option against the Vikings, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders (vs. NYG)
Brian Robinson Jr. had a field day against the Seahawks in the Commanders’ 29-26 loss. He rushed eight times for 36 yards. The bulk of his production came through the air. He reeled in six catches for 119 yards and a touchdown.
Robinson’s 155 scrimmage yards set season and career highs for the Year 2 running back, who has been an integral part of Washington’s offense this year. He should have ample opportunities for fantasy production against the New York Giants, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs.
Robinson is a high-floor RB2 with upside in this favorable Week 11 matchup.
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals (at HOU)
Trey McBride bounced back from a rough Week 9 against the Browns (which can probably be forgiven after Clayton Tune and the Cardinals were blanked, 27-0). Last week, McBride torched the Falcons’ defense for eight catches on nine targets for a career-high 131 yards.
He finished as the TE3 in half-PPR, his third top-10 finish in the last five weeks.
McBride — and every member of this Cardinals offense — will undoubtedly benefit from Murray’s return. McBride should be a top-12 option against the Texans, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year and for the foreseeable future.
Players We Hate This Week
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (vs. TEN)
Trevor Lawrence has been a massive disappointment all season. Entering Week 10, he had zero games with 20 or more fantasy points — a streak he continued against the San Francisco 49ers. He tossed no touchdowns and two interceptions and finished as the QB31.
Lawrence has just two multi-touchdown games and is the overall QB18. This week, Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans, who are above average against fantasy quarterbacks. He is unstartable in one-QB leagues moving unless a massive change takes place.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers (at CLE)
Diontae Johnson had a three-game streak with double-digit fantasy points after returning from injury in Week 7. He was the fantasy WR22 in Weeks 7 and 8 in half-PPR and the WR6 in Week 9.
His streak came to a screeching halt in Week 10 against the Green Bay Packers’ tough pass defense. He hauled in one catch for 17 yards.
Johnson will get another brutal matchup in Week 11. This time, it’s on the road against the Browns, who are allowing the fewest passing yards per game and have the highest average time of possession in the NFL.
Cleveland has the sixth-toughest defense against fantasy wide receivers, which could knock Johnson outside the WR2 tier this week.
Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys (at CAR)
According to fantasy Twitter, last week was supposed to be Tony Pollard Week. The stars had certainly aligned for a big game for the Dallas Cowboys’ blue-chip running back squaring off at home against a lowly Giants team that lost 40-0 to Dallas in Week 1.
As expected, the Cowboys pummeled the Giants, but Pollard was barely part of the equation.
Prescott threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns; Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb combined for 324 receiving yards; and three rushing touchdowns came from Prescott, Lamb and backup RB Rico Dowdle.
Pollard rushed 15 times for 55 yards and participated in 69 percent of snaps. Dowdle rushed 12 times for 79 yards and a touchdown on 28 percent of snaps.
Week 10 was merely a symptom of a season-long issue with Pollard, who has failed to produce top-12 numbers in all but two games this year. It is unclear if this workload split will continue, though, at a minimum, this situation is alarming. He gets a cupcake matchup this week against the Panthers, but even in this spot, Pollard is difficult to trust. He is a low-upside RB2 for Week 11.
Cade Otton, TE, Buccaneers (at SF)
Aside from one 20-point game in Week 9 against the Texans, Cade Otton has been unremarkable in fantasy. He has finished with single-digit fantasy points in eight of nine games and is the overall TE20 in half-PPR scoring.
It is difficult to envision a path toward fantasy relevance for Otton because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against their toughest opponents of the season on the road (and on the West Coast, no less): the 49ers.
San Francisco is fresh off of a 34-3 win against the Jaguars and has been particularly stingy against tight ends. The 49ers’ defense has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position this year, which is enough to knock Otton well outside the top-12 conversation.
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