Fantasy
12/24/23
2 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Takeaways From Every Week 16 Game
The article below details one need-to-know takeaway from each NFL Week 16 contest, aimed at providing readers with immediately actionable fantasy football information.
Top Takeaways
Bills’ Brady Exploits Defensive Weaknesses
The Buffalo Bills' offensive coordinator Joe Brady is targeting the opposition’s defensive weaknesses to an extreme degree. The Bills ran the ball a season-high 49 times against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15 and targeted the Los Angeles Chargers’ permissive 15.3 percent explosive pass plays allowed rate (Weeks 1-15) in Week 16.
QB Josh Allen’s 28.6 percent 20-plus-yard average depth of target rate against Los Angeles more than doubled his previous high (12.5 percent). Buffalo faces the New England Patriots in Week 17, whose 31.8 percent quarterback pressure rate ranks sixth-worst in the NFL, signaling a likely pass-heavy approach for Brady.
Trust Cooper, Flacco QB2 vs. Jets in Week 17
As detailed in Takeaways From Every Week 15 Game, Cleveland Browns’ QB Joe Flacco was a good bet to extend his three-game 300-yard-passing streak and return value as a fantasy football QB1. He completed 27 of 42 passing attempts for 368 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He added one yard rushing en route to 24.8 fantasy points, making good on last week’s prediction.
Amari Cooper caught 11 of 15 targets for 265 yards receiving and two touchdowns, en route to 51.5 points-per-reception points (PPR).
The dynamic duo faces a stiff test against the New York Jets’ elite pass defense in Week 17. Fantasy managers can trust Cooper to return WR2 value. However, Flacco should be reduced to a high-end QB2 although his high-end passing volume keeps him QB1-eligible.
Mostert Primed For Big Week 17
Miami Dolphins No. 1 RB Raheem Mostert briefly entered the blue medical tent toward the end of the first half after taking a lateral hit to the interior of his left knee. He returned in time to score on a four-yard reception with 21 seconds left in the second quarter, salvaging an otherwise quiet day (12.0 PPR points). Fantasy managers should monitor the news for post-game swelling reports and Week 17 expectations, however, Mostert appears ready for a featured workload in an expectedly high-scoring game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Remaining Storylines
Stash Rams’ Rivers
Los Angeles Rams backup RB Ronnie Rivers’ return rendered formerly featured backups RB Royce Freeman and RB Darrell Henderson inactive in Week 16. Rivers (knee) and starting RB Kyren Williams (high-ankle sprain) landed on injured reserve following their respective Week 6 injuries, allowing Freeman and Henderson to handle feature roles.
Rivers totaled six rushing attempts, ran five routes, one passing-down snap and one red zone snap in his return. That solidifies his status as the preferred Los Angeles backfield bench stash for fantasy football managers.
Boyd Flops With Chase Out
Cincinnati Bengals slot WR Tyler Boyd caught five-of-seven targets for 59 scoreless yards, (PPR) with No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (AC joint sprain) out.
As detailed in Takeaways From Every Week 15 Game: “Boyd’s 1.18 YPRR is his lowest per-route efficiency average since 2017. Fantasy managers should expect coach Zac Taylor to prioritize evaluating WR Tee Higgins and 2023 rookies WR Andrei Iosivas.”
Higgins and Iosivas totaled eight targets apiece, operating as the team’s top two pass catchers. Fantasy managers should not trust Boyd to improve his standing in a Week 17 matchup against Kansas City Chiefs slot CB Trent McDuffie.
Add Colts’ Mallory In Dynasty
The Indianapolis Colts boast a deep, star-less tight end corps. Fifth-round rookie Will Mallory is beginning to separate from the pack. Mallory totaled four receptions and 47 yards receiving on four targets in Week 16.
His 20.9 percent targets per route run (TPRR) rate and 1.63 yards per route run (YPRR) rank Nos. 3 and 2, respectively, among seven NFL rookie tight ends with at least 15 targets. His respective rates lead Indianapolis tight ends by 3.1 percent and 0.35 yards.
Doubs Likely Featured In Week 17
The Green Bay Packers were without Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers, Christian Watson (hamstring strain) and Jayden Reed (toe/chest), after both players failed to practice all week.
WR Dontayvion Wicks notched two receptions, 29 yards receiving and one touchdown on two targets before a chest injury forced him from play, leaving Romeo Doubs as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver.
Doubs will be a top waiver wire target this week ahead of Green Bay’s Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings allow 168.5 yards receiving allowed per game to opposing wide receivers, the NFL’s eighth-highest average.
Mullens Repeats As Effective Distributor
Minnesota Vikings QB Nick Mullens totaled 411 yards passing, two touchdowns passing, four interceptions and one yard rushing en route to 16.5 fantasy points.
Mullens completed passes to eight Minnesota pass catchers despite losing TE T.J. Hockenson (knee) and WR Jordan Addison (ankle) to injuries. WR Justin Jefferson and RB Ty Chandler should have featured Week 17 roles against a Green Bay Packers’ defense allowing a 66.0 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, the NFL’s 12th-highest rate.
Jets' Hall Hits Multiple Career Highs
New York Jets RB Breece Hall posted his best rushing line since Week 5, taking 20 rushing attempts for 95 yards rushing and two touchdowns rushing.
His 16 targets and 12 receptions are career-highs, which he transformed into 96 yards receiving. His 43.1 PPR points are all but guaranteed to settle in as the Week 16 positional high.
Fantasy managers who successfully advanced to the playoffs with Hall on their roster, despite his down year, will likely possess a significantly unique roster in large-field tournaments.
Okonkwo Is Week 17 Streaming Option
Tennessee Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo made good on his streaming listing in the NFL Week 16 Waiver Wire Targets column, catching six-of-six targets for 63 yards receiving and one touchdown.
Okonkwo’s six targets tied for the team-high, boding positively for his Week 17 streaming viability. He plays a Houston Texans’ tight end-coverage unit that ranks outside the top 20 in catch rate allowed (73.8 percent), adjusted yards allowed per route run (0.85) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (13.5 percent).
Engram Retains High-Volume Role
Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram caught double-digit targets (10-of-15) while producing 95 yards receiving, this time adding two touchdowns receiving, for the second time in three games. His high-volume role with slot WR Christian Kirk on injured reserve remains secure heading into a Week 17 matchup against a Carolina Panthers’ tight end-coverage unit prone to surrendering big plays and a high catch rate. Carolina allows explosive pass plays to opposing tight ends at a 15.4 percent rate, the NFL’s sixth-highest. Their 70.3 percent catch rate ranks 14th-highest.
Demercado Secured Cardinals’ Passing-Down Role
Arizona Cardinals backup RB Emari Demercado distanced himself from fellow backup RB Michael Carter this week, hogging 93.0 percent of the backfield’s passing-down snaps (14 snaps). Demercado totaled 40 yards receiving and seven receptions on eight targets, adding 10 yards rushing on two rushing attempts. Arizona opened as 9.5-point FanDuel road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles for Week 17, signaling a Demercado-friendly game script for fantasy football championship weekend.
Broncos’ Stars Flop Following Sutton’s Concussion
The Denver Broncos lost No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton to a first-quarter concussion, and neither No. 2 WR Jerry Jeudy nor RB Javonte Williams rose to the occasion. Jeudy’s five targets tied three Denver role players for the team-high; he returned just three receptions for 44 yards receiving.
Williams produced just 19 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown rushing on 11 total touches. Nos. 2 and 3 RBs Samaje Perine (1.50 YPRR) and Jaleel McLaughlin (6.2 yards per rushing attempt and 3.33 YPRR) bested him on a per-play basis.
Denver’s Week 17 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers’ permissive defense creates mild, if uneasy, flex viability for Jeudy and Williams should Sutton fail to clear the concussion protocol.
