Analysis
10/13/23
4 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 6 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
If you are new to Battle Royale, check out our strategy guide.
Game Environment Dashboard
Stack Targets
Miami Dolphins
This one is obvious, but I still will be overweight versus the field. Without De’Von Achane, the offense will be condensed even more, down to three meaningful players on a 30-point implied team total.
With an extremely deep running back slate, an argument can be made for Tyreek Hill over Christian McCaffrey, who has a rough matchup this week. According to sportsbooks’ odds, Hill is the most likely wide receiver to score a touchdown by a decent margin, four percent over WR2 and eight percent over WR3. Only four percent less likely than McCaffrey but plays a shallower position that occupies two-plus roster spots.
Raheem Mostert is in an absolute smash spot. He should see the bulk of running back touches against the league’s worst run defense in EPA per play. Mostert can absolutely consolidate the touchdowns here and break the slate. I’m drafting him over everyone but McCaffrey, Hill, Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp.
The Jaylen Waddle breakout game is coming. He saw an absurd four end zone targets last week as the team appeared more intentionally getting him involved. Sportsbooks rate Waddle as the WR4 in touchdown likelihood, but we are drafting him as WR9.
Tua Tagovailoa is stackable with any combination of these players.
Favorite Plays: Tagovailoa with Hill, Waddle, Mostert; Game stack with Adam Thielen or Chuba Hubbard
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The low team total for the Detroit Lions is not ideal, but David Montgomery has seen insane usage this season and looks the part as well. Only McCaffrey has been given a role with more expected fantasy points. Jahmyr Gibbs seems unlikely to play, but he hasn’t affected Montgomery much. Sportsbooks are giving Montgomery the highest chance of any running back on the slate to score – yes, even over McCaffrey.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is expected back this week with a full practice on Thursday, which is great news. He’s a stud and has scored a touchdown or eclipsed 100 yards in every game. Now, he just needs to put them together. I rank St. Brown around WR6-7 on the slate versus WR10, where he is being drafted.
Sam LaPorta randomly did not practice on Thursday, so stay tuned to his injury updates. If he plays, he’s the TE2 on a shallow tight end slate. It’s a slight boost to Montgomery and St. Brown’s touchdown equity if he sits.
Mike Evans’ ADP has been suppressed because of his injury, but it’s confirmed as of Friday afternoon that he is a full go. With the contest half full, his rostership will be lower than expected. The Lions’ pass defense is below average, and Evans’ usage will highly correlate with the Lions scoring points.
Favorite Plays: Montgomery or St. Brown or LaPorta; Game stack with Evans
Uniqueness – Low ADPs
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith
The Seattle Seahawks are playing into extreme game script tendencies. If the Cincinnati Bengals can score points, Geno Smith will be forced to throw often. I like Smith’s ceiling better than a handful of quarterbacks being drafted more often.
Other Plays: Jared Goff
Running Backs
I must note that running back feels very deep this week, as the top 12 players are all attractive options with high ceilings.
Joe Mixon
To put it nicely, Joe Mixon has not been good this year, but the low rostership and high leverage are too good to ignore. He’s been given a huge role with all the high-value touches. The Mixon week is coming.
Other Plays: D’Onta Foreman (if Roschon Johnson sits), Chuba Hubbard
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk has seen increased usage in the past few weeks and is in a great spot here. Jacksonville has been the most unlucky offense this year in terms of converting efficiency into points, so I will continue to be above the market on them. The Jaguars gashed the vulnerable Colts' defense in Week 1, and that should continue. If Zay Jones doesn’t play, which I don’t think he will, this becomes an even better selection.
Other Plays: Marquise Brown, Michael Pittman Jr.
Tight Ends
The market appears very efficient on tight ends this week. Cole Kmet is a bit overvalued, and Kyle Pitts feels undervalued. Pitts' recent usage has improved, seeing multiple downfield targets. This week, he is a high variance, high ceiling player against a porous secondary.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
