Betting
8/4/23
4 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Impact of Alvin Kamara's Suspension
On Friday, New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara was suspended for three games to start the 2023 NFL season. What will the Saints' expected backfield split be during his absence, where is a logical spot to draft Kamara in fantasy and how can you handle this situation in the betting markets?
Running Backs Behind Kamara
Jamaal Williams
Jamaal Williams enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2022. He had 262 carries, 1,066 rushing yards and a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns. In his five prior seasons, he still averaged 131 carries, 37 targets and 741 total yards.
While he’s not flashy, Williams is competent in all phases and plays mistake-free, reliable football. The six-year veteran should command most of the carries and targets during this three-game stretch. Think of Williams as a high-end fantasy RB2 for the first three weeks.
Kendre Miller
Kendre Miller is a big back and was taken in Round 3 (Pick 71) by the Saints in the 2023 NFL Draft. He offers little as a pass-catcher, but the TCU product is an exciting, explosive runner who totaled 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on the ground as a junior in 2022.
He has the long speed and big-play ability Williams lacks. While Miller could make noise down the stretch, he’s probably nothing more than a breather back these first three games. His realistic ceiling is a 1B in a committee.
Miller could be flex-viable in these early games, but most likely, he’s just a savvy bench stash.
Recent Examples
The floor scenario is Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White from last season. White also was taken in the third round, like Miller. Fournette out-touched White 68-10 through three weeks.
Williams doesn’t have the built-in rapport with Derek Carr that Fournette did with Tom Brady; however, this is still a decent parallel given the similar rookie draft capital and the team situation. Last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were division favorites, much like the Saints are this upcoming season.
The ceiling outcome for Miller is the 2021 Denver Broncos. Denver traded up in Round 2 (Pick 35) to select Javonte Williams. The split with Melvin Gordon was close to even during those first three weeks.
Gordon averaged 14 carries and 2.3 targets per game, while Javonte Williams was given 13 carries and 2.0 targets per game. Because of the difference in draft capital between Javonte Williams and Miller, this looks to be the ceiling outcome if Jamaal Williams remains healthy.
First Three Matchups
Week 1 vs. Titans
Last season, the Tennessee Titans were a pass-funnel defense. They allowed the second-fewest yards per carry (3.4) to running backs while giving up the most passing yards in the NFL (275 per game).
Overall, the Titans allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, though they gave up the fifth most receptions to running backs (94). The Titans project similarly for 2023, and we should consider this a slightly below-average matchup for fantasy running backs.
Week 2 vs. Panthers
This projects as a roughly average fantasy matchup across the board.
Week 3 vs. Packers
The Green Bay Packers allowed 4.9 yards per carry to backs last year (sixth-most) while giving up the sixth-fewest passing yards.
They should be a run-funnel defense once again in 2023. Starting nose tackle T.J. Slaton was taken in the fifth round two years ago and has been a well-below-average player both seasons.
Kenny Clark is also a liability on the defensive line for Green Bay, so last year’s numbers are indicative of 2023 expectations.
Alvin Kamara's Outlook
Kamara probably will be eased into the team’s Week 4 matchup against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is projected to finish last in the division by most major outlets. Expect Kamara to be a full-go in Week 5 against the New England Patriots on the road.
Larky recommends taking Kamara in Round 4 in fantasy drafts, slightly before Kenneth Walker. Reynolds prefers Walker to Kamara in Round 4. Both believe Kamara should be selected ahead of Aaron Jones, who projects to have a similar workload in a worse offensive environment.
Take Kamara as early as Round 4, and he should be a borderline auto-draft in the middle of Round 5.
Betting Impact
The three-game suspension has no impact on the Saints’ win total.
Player props for Saints running backs should be up soon, though they are off the board. If we have a season-long prop we like for any of these running backs, it will be posted in our FREE Discord.
In-season, our Discord will house all of our player props each week, with write-ups and which sportsbook contains the best odds.
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