Fantasy
12/27/23
4 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Analyzing Week 16 Chalk
Looking at how you handled the chalk is essential to analyzing your play. That said, it can be more important to look at how the field dealt with the chalk, because that information can be part of your decision-making process going forward.
Imagine the field is making considerable mistakes in processing ownership percentages and in how the chalk interacts with other pieces on a slate. In that case, I can confidently change course and leverage those inefficiencies in my favor.
I will break down rosters each week, examining processes along the way. This piece will examine the state of chalk from the previous week to see if any meaningful takeaways develop.
Week 16 Chalk
New York Jets D/ST
Any defense expected to be the highest-owned on a slate is questionable at best at the position with the most variance. The New York Jets did return a usable fantasy week and were present on winning rosters in various contests, but they failed to return a “put the slate out of reach score” at just eight DraftKings (DK) points.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler was one of the shakier pieces of chalk heading into the Week 16 main slate. He saw just eight touches in a difficult matchup on the ground while returning 7.7 DK points.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raachad White carried the highest salary on the Week 16 main slate and was expected to garner ownership. He returned a serviceable 19.7 DK points but failed to eclipse a 4x salary multiplier at his inflated price.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson returned a tidy 31.1 DK points on six catches for 141 receiving yards and a touchdown. He hit a 4x salary multiplier.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Breece Hall erupted against a Washington Commanders team that has been gashed by opposing backfields lately, returning a true difference-maker score. Hall was a piece you needed to ship GPPs in Week 16, returning a tidy 7x salary multiplier.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride tied for the team lead in targets at eight but was largely bottled up, catching six of eight targets for just 31 yards and no scores. He failed to return a 4x salary multiplier.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
For these next two players, it’s probably best to revisit what I said leading up to the slate: “DJ Moore has elite underlying metrics against man coverage this season but sees his target rate (19.9 percent), TPRR (15.5 percent) and air yards share against zone. This is important considering the Cardinals are in zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league this year.”
Justin Fields, RB, Chicago Bears
And more from last week: “A similar discussion to the one above can be had for Justin Fields. Fields is at his best when he’s able to remove the need to read and diagnose a defense — when he can just go play ball. He now gets a matchup with the shallow Cover-2 shell of Arizona, which aims to force the exact things Fields struggles with.”
Roster Examination
There were a couple of smart moves by one of the top GPP players in the world on the winning roster this week.
First off, the inclusion of T.J. Hockenson in the greater construct of the roster was a solid leverage position because it simultaneously forced a two-tight-end build while also leveraged off the chalkiest pay-up wide receiver in Jefferson. It didn’t quite work out because Hockenson suffered a multiple ligament knee injury, but the theoretical processes that led to the decision were elite.
Secondly, including a high variance cheap option in DJ Chark allowed DK user papagates to still pay up for one of the elite wide receivers: CeeDee Lamb. When combined with the solid roster core of the Cleveland Browns double stack with Breece Hall, those two moves vaulted papagates to the top of the leaderboard in the $555 Millionaire Maker GPP.
We can’t poke any theoretical holes in the roster beyond the obvious inclusion of a defense owned at a 30 percent clip. There were some really nice stances taken on this roster.
