Fantasy

5/24/23

22 min read

2023 Best Ball: Top 250 Underdog Rankings With Confidence Ratings

By Josh Larky & Ryan Reynolds

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Our Top-250 Underdog best ball rankings have a new format. Players are ranked by ADP (average draft position), and for each ranking, Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds rate from 1-5 how interested they are in that player at their given ADP. Additionally, you’ll find dozens of player write-ups throughout to provide additional context behind the ratings/rankings process.

Normal exposure to a player is about 8.3 percent, which is taking someone once every 12 drafts. Below, you can see how to translate our rating system to our ideal player exposures.

Make sure to join the FREE 33rd Team Discord, where you can discuss these ratings with Josh and Ryan to understand their thought processes better.

Top 250

Players 1-25

• Ja'Marr Chase: The 33rd Team fantasy football analysts Liam Murphy and Reynolds both consider taking Chase whenever they have the first overall pick.
• Christian McCaffrey: His value could take a dip if Trey Lance is the team's opening-day starter, as Lance is a factor as a runner in goal-to-go situations.
• Davante Adams: He turns 31 in December and will be playing with the oft-injured, mediocre Jimmy Garoppolo. Unlike Derek Carr last year — who Adams played with in college — Garoppolo is a fully unfamiliar quarterback for him. The Raiders offense is not one to be overweight on, as Josh McDaniels could be on the hot seat.
• Austin Ekeler: New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has a history of a split backfield in Dallas, and Ekeler has stated many times he wants his touches to be limited. He's now 28 years old and most of his receiving spike last year was due to a plethora of receiver injuries.
• Jonathan Taylor: He likely performs like turbo-charged 2022 Miles Sanders, where scrambling rookie QB Anthony Richardson helps him with his rushing efficiency but hurts his target volume. There's also a chance Richardson vultures goal-line work. Taylor has a lot working against him at the most injury-filled fantasy position.
• Garrett Wilson: He had more than 1,100 yards receiving as a rookie, playing with three different (and below-average) quarterbacks in Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White. He now gets Aaron Rodgers, with minimal target competition.
• Jaylen Waddle: He was a low depth of target volume receiver as a rookie before turning into a vertical weapon in his sophomore campaign. Waddle is a good pick in a vacuum, and he could be the WR1 in fantasy if the older Tyreek Hill misses time due to injury.
• Patrick Mahomes: Target him when Travis Kelce is picked in Round 1, but keep in mind Mahomes isn't as mobile as Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen.
• Nick Chubb: Assuming Deshaun Watson is (mostly) back to his 2017-2020 form, Chubb will be playing with by far the best quarterback of his career and behind a premium offensive line with no more Kareem Hunt splitting work. While we've generally faded profiles like his due to lack of pass-catching, Chubb has a good chance to lead the NFL in rushing yards and rushing TDs.

Players 26-50

• Derrick Henry: He's in the twilight of his career, and this looks like the potential season for the wheels to fall off from this offense. Henry has an appealing Week 15-17 stretch.
• Josh Jacobs: He had 393 touches last year, the fifth most by any runner during the past decade. This has generally led to injuries and ineffectiveness for good, but not great, backs like Jacbos in the following season. As mentioned earlier with Adams, the Las Vegas Raiders are not a team to get excited about for fantasy football.
• Rhamondre Stevenson: There doesn't appear to be much of a difference between Stevenson and Najee Harris, who goes a round later. The New England Patriots offense doesn't project to be high-scoring, and Underdog is a half-PPR platform, which hurts a pass-catcher like Stevenson.
• Mark Andrews: With Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers, it's tough to see Andrews getting enough volume in an offense that should still be fairly run-heavy due to Lamar Jackson. If new offensive coordinator Todd Monken weren't in town, Andrews would be downgraded to a 2 rating.
• Deebo Samuel: He topped 13 fantasy points just twice last season while falling below double-digit fantasy points in five outings. Outside of his 2021 season with historic efficiency, Samuel has been a WR4 type for fantasy football. He struggles to stay healthy and was oftentimes behind Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle on the target totem pole.
• Amari Cooper: If Watson returns to form, Cooper will be the primary beneficiary.
• Najee Harris: He's a former first-round pick who sees primary back usage and finished the 2022 season strong. Harris will run behind a significantly improved Steelers offensive line in 2023.
• Jahmyr Gibbs: We loved Gibbs when he was going in the sixth round. David Montgomery is 20 pounds heavier and likely takes the goal-line work. Our excitement has been tempered, but we aren't fading a Lions running back after Detroit was the fifth-best scoring offense in 2022.
• Christian Watson: We have low expectations for the Green Bay Packers offense with Jordan Love, and Watson now has moderate target competition. His speed and downfield role prevent us from fully fading him, but target-earning WR Jayden Reed and two talented rookie tight ends make this a murky situation for fantasy football.
• Joe Burrow: He should be targeted when Chase or Tee Higgins is already on your roster, but he's not someone we are excited about in a vacuum due to his low rushing ceiling and slower-paced offense.
• Mike Williams: He is behind Keenan Allen and possibly Quentin Johnston for targets, yet goes before both. He struggles to stay healthy and should probably be going a round later. He stays at a 2.5 since we like the potential of this Chargers offense.
• DeAndre Hopkins: He is aging and clearly not as well-liked by the NFL as fantasy managers hoped. He's been on the trade block for months and remains a Cardinal.
• DJ Moore: He finds himself on a low-volume passing offense with decent target competition in Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney.
• Drake London: He is on an extremely low-volume passing offense that selected RB Bijan Robinson with pick No. 8 in the 2023 NFL Draft. His late fantasy surge in 2022 happened only after Kyle Pitts was sidelined due to injury.

Players 51-75

• Christian Kirk: He performed well last year and already has chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. It's unclear if he is the WR1 or WR2 in this offense, but he goes much later than Calvin Ridley.
• Aaron Jones: He turns 29 in December, and Love likely runs a lower-scoring offense that also features less frequent running back targets.
• Michael Pittman: The Indianapolis Colts wide receiver will be playing in a similar environment to the 2022 Atlanta Falcons, and it's tough to envision the spike weeks.
• Miles Sanders: The former Philadelphia runner was the RB16 per game last year on an Eagles team that had a historic amount of rushing touchdowns. Sanders had a career-high 15 carries per game and 11 rushing TDs, and this Carolina Panthers offense projects to be far lower-scoring. Sanders is the quintessential dead-zone running back.
• Chris Godwin: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the second-lowest scoring NFL team last year with Tom Brady. Now, they have Baker Mayfield and project to pass far less often. Godwin's low depth of target on a bad offense is concerning.
• Joe Mixon: He was out-played by Samaje Perine for much of last year and was even out-snapped by him in two of three playoff games. His talent is questionable, and he still has ongoing legal issues.
• Dameon Pierce: He has limited backfield competition in Devin Singletary, and the addition of guard Shaq Mason gives the Houston Texans a borderline top-10 offensive line
• Kyle Pitts: He is a unicorn athlete at the tight end position. Unreliable quarterback play in a low pass-volume offense is concerning.
• Tyler Lockett: He is perpetually underrated. He doesn't miss much time due to injury and is as consistent as they come. His speed and downfield ability are the right combinations for spike weeks.
• Dallas Goedert: He is playing behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in a medium-volume offense.
• Dalvin Cook: He is likely to be cut by Minnesota, and it's unclear which team would give him a workhorse role.
• D'Andre Swift: The new Eagle back lands in an offense that led the NFL in rushing TDs by a considerable margin last year. He was a top-10 in running back spike weeks (top-6 weekly fantasy finishes) last year despite missing time due to injury and receiving fewer than 10 touches per game.
• George Pickens: He was targeted far less thanDiontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. Kenny Pickett is still not a great passer, and a moderate-volume receiver on a below-average offense isn't a profile to target this early in a half-PPR format.
• Isiah Pacheco: He doesn't catch passes, and he didn't monopolize goal-line work last year. He can score 10 TDs and still not pay off at ADP.

Players 76-100

• Marquise Brown: He is a fine pick even if Hopkins remains on this roster. If Hopkins is traded, Brown could be force-fed double-digit targets per game like at the start of last season. Kyler Murray's late-season return from injury coincides well with tournament formats that reward late-season production.
• Rachaad White: The Buccaneers should have a bad offense, and White didn't do anything impressive as a rookie. You're hoping for volume but accepting the TDs likely won't be plentiful. We don't want to assume 300 or more touches for White.
• Darren Waller: He looks like the clear No. 1 pass-game option for a Giants team that had a fairly adept offense last year.
• Gabe Davis: There's TD fragility for Davis with rookie TE Dalton Kincaid and bruising RB Damien Harris now in town.
• Alexander Mattison: If Cook is cut as expected, Mattison takes on the lead back role in Minnesota
• Deshaun Watson: He had always scored like a top-5 fantasy quarterback prior to last year when he played in only six games after two years away from football. We are confident 2020 Watson returns in 2023.
• David Montgomery: Think of Montgomery like Jamaal Williams-plus.
• Quentin Johnston: There is no reason for Johnston to go so far behind Smith-Njigba and Addison. He's a high depth of target receiver who is dangerous after the catch, now paired with Justin Herbert and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. In the past two seasons in Dallas, Moore led the No. 1 and No. 4 scoring offenses.
• Anthony Richardson: See this article for our concerns with rookie year Richardson.
• Zay Flowers: He is buried in a low-volume offense with a profile that usually gets drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft.
• Javonte Williams: There have been no encouraging signals with his recovery, and Williams looks like 2022 J.K. Dobbins.
• James Cook: He is probably third in the pecking order for goal line carries behind Damien Harris and Allen.
• Rashod Bateman: Like Flowers, it's a crowded depth chart for Bateman on a lower-volume passing offense.
• Courtland Sutton: His breakout 2019 campaign feels like a century away after several disappointing seasons.
• Tua Tagovailoa: He averaged nearly a full yard per pass attempt more than any other quarterback last year. If he didn't have concussion concerns, he'd go near Herbert and Lawrence in best ball drafts.
• Jameson Williams: Read this excellent piece from Mark Garcia on why Williams is a player to be overweight on in best ball.

Players 101-125

• Daniel Jones: He has impressive mobility, a great play caller in Brian Daboll, and has a much-improved supporting cast.
• A.J. Dillon: He is a grinder back in one of the league's worst offenses.
• Brian Robinson: He profiles like Dillon, but he had an impressive rookie season considering he was shot in the leg during a carjacking attempt last summer. There's some potential for a role increase in Year 2.
• Damien Harris: The former Patriots' back could be the primary ball carrier in Buffalo. The Bills turned the ball over a lot in the scoring zone last season, and Allen has admitted that he needs to take less contact. There's a path to double-digit rushing touchdowns for Harris in Buffalo.
• Khalil Herbert: He doesn't catch passes, and his rushing workload is threatened by both D'Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson.
• Antonio Gibson: He was a usage monster before Robinson returned last year, and there's a chance he's heavily utilized as a safety blanket in the receiving game for the unproven Sam Howell.

Players 126-150

• Elijah Mitchell: He is a premium handcuff with some standalone value.
• Dalton Schultz: A low-scoring environment is suboptimal for a tight end like Schultz, who was propped up by elite scoring offenses in Dallas.
• Jerick McKinnon: He is the most trusted pass-catcher in a Mahomes-led offense.
• Chigoziem Okonkwo: He may be the second-leading target-getter for a competent Tannehill.
• Russell Wilson: We are betting on a Wilson bounce-back with new coach Sean Payton in town.
• Kendre Miller: He is a highly skilled runner with decent draft capital on an ambiguous depth chart.
• Adam Thielen: He turns 33 in August and had just 42 yards receiving per game in a much better Vikings offense last year. The Panthers' pass attack should be a steep downgrade for Thielen.
• Jalin Hyatt: He goes far too early for a third-round draft capital receiver on a crowded depth chart. He likely plays behind Darius Slayton for much, if not all, of 2023. His ADP reflects drafters being too anchored to their prior feelings about him as a potential Round 1 draft talent.
• Nico Collins: He could be the top option in the league's thinnest wide receiver room
• Kyler Murray: He might not be available until the second half of the season due to injury, but he brings tremendous upside.
• D.J. Chark: The Panthers have three wide receivers that could be the top option in their passing game. Chark is the cheapest of that group.
• Irv Smith: He has done nothing in his NFL career and is behind at least Chase, Higgins and Boyd for targets.

Players 151-175

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He should go earlier as the deep threat for Mahomes.
• Matthew Stafford: His medicals look good, and the Rams may have the NFL's worst pass defense in 2023. Expect a negative game script for a talented passer.
• Sam LaPorta: He goes much later than Kincaid, despite getting similar draft capital on a similarly good offense. LaPorta has 4.59 wheels and should have some late-season spike weeks.
• Rashid Shaheed: It's unclear if Shaheed is better than rookie WR AT Perry, and he's now buried on this depth chart.
• Tank Bigsby: He is at worst the direct handcuff to Etienne (with his injury history) on a high-scoring Jaguars offense. Other premium handcuffs go earlier in drafts.
• Jayden Reed: He has second-round draft capital and looks like some version of Diontae Johnson.
• Van Jefferson: He has an appealing Week 17 matchup against the Giants.
• Wan'Dale Robinson: He is recovering from a major injury, and the slot receiver position is now crowded in New York.
• Dawson Knox: He makes more than $10 million a year, and he'll be in Buffalo until at least 2025.
• Trey Lance: He is probably third on the depth chart behind Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold, but his falling ADP makes him an interesting upside buy at current costs.

Players 176-200

• Kenny Pickett: The second-year quarterback has some mobility, good weapons and now plays behind a solid offensive line.
• Kenneth Gainwell: Swift and Rashaad Penny aren't exactly beacons of availability.
• C.J. Stroud: He is a pocket passer with the worst wide receiver group in the league.
• Chase Claypool: He has multi-touchdown upside on a week-to-week basis.
• Hayden Hurst: He has an appealing Week 17 matchup against the Jaguars.
• Tyler Conklin: There is no target hog on this team after Wilson, and Conklin should flirt with 600-700 yards and 5-8 TDs with Rodgers.

Players 201-225

• Joshua Palmer: He should provide some spike weeks anytime one of Allen, Williams or Johnston misses time due to injury.
• Isaiah Likely: He is a backup tight end on a team with a crowded receiver room.
• Darius Slayton: He is a starting outside receiver with speed who should play over rookie Hyatt.

Players 226-269

• Corey Davis: He is a former first-round pick that suddenly gets the best quarterback of his career in Rodgers.
• Zamir White: Jacobs had 393 touches last year, the fifth most in the past decade. White looks like the direct backup in Las Vegas.
• Pierre Strong: Strong is a speedy runner who may only be behind Stevenson on the Patriots' depth chart.
• Sean Tucker: The rookie runner could be White's direct backup in Tampa Bay.
• Ryan Tannehill: This is by far the latest starting quarterback you can draft, and he has 20 rushing TDs over the past four seasons.
• Sam Darnold: He could possibly be the 49ers starting quarterback if anything happens with Purdy's recovery.
• Evan Hull: He should play the Nyheim Hines role alongside Taylor, and the elite pass-catching rookie could be a monster in fantasy if Taylor gets injured.
• Eric Gray: He is Barkley's direct backup with an all-purpose skill set.

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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Ryan Reynolds

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Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.