NFL Analysis
12/14/23
13 min read
Ranking Every NFL Team by Yards per Play Differential Entering Week 15
Football is a turf war, and here's how you measure it.
For years, one of the stats that analysts and gamblers love to use in assessing how good or bad a team is performing is yards per play differential (YPPD). While it sounds complex, it’s pretty simple.
How many yards does your offense gain on the average play vs. how many yards does your defense allow per play? If you have any hope of winning or even getting to a Super Bowl, the difference better be positive. This is a measure of how teams play on a down-by-down basis where the impact of one or two big plays or flukey circumstances can affect the results.
| Rank | Team | Off. Average Yards Per Play | Def. Average Yards Per Play | YPPD | Comment |
| 1 | SF | 6.74 | 4.89 | +1.85 | The 49ers' scoring running combo is fascinating. |
| 2 | MIA | 6.73 | 4.95 | +1.78 | The Dolphins stumbled on Monday, but the defense is improving. |
| 3 | BAL | 5.81 | 4.33 | +1.48 | This defense has regressed a lot in the past four weeks. |
| 4 | DAL | 5.68 | 4.9 | +0.78 | These last four games will determine if the Cowboys are a true contender. |
| 5 | KC | 5.64 | 4.93 | +0.71 | The wide receivers and weird penalties have cost the Chiefs four losses. |
| 6 | DET | 5.81 | 5.31 | +0.50 | The Lions have allowed 26 or more points in five straight games and six of their last seven. |
| 7 | BUF | 5.77 | 5.28 | +0.49 | Letting Josh Allen cook is fun, but it creates a super erratic team. |
| 8 | MIN | 5.34 | 4.93 | +0.41 | These are amazing numbers for a team playing with a backup quarterback. |
| 9 | LAR | 5.48 | 5.28 | +0.20 | This is pretty impressive for a team in a theoretical rebuild. |
| 10 | HOU | 5.58 | 5.39 | +0.19 | The recent emergence of Will Anderson only makes this better. |
| 11 | ATL | 5.1 | 4.97 | +0.13 | These numbers are better than what it looks when you watch the Falcons. |
| 12 | GB | 5.36 | 5.29 | +0.07 | Jordan Love is on the right track, and fortunately, the Packers are patient. |
| 13 | PHI | 5.44 | 5.42 | +0.02 | The Eagles had outplayed their numbers until the past two weeks. |
| 14 | SEA | 5.45 | 5.46 | -0.01 | There are two big things on Pete Carroll’s to-do list: Get a quarterback, dump Jamal Adams. |
| 15 | IND | 5.18 | 5.23 | -0.05 | The Colts are 5-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. |
| 16 | NO | 5.05 | 5.11 | -0.06 | There’s no other way to put it: the Saints are boring. |
| 17 | NE | 4.72 | 4.78 | -0.06 | The Patriots' rank is boosted because opponents often don’t have to take risks. |
| 18 | CLE | 4.54 | 4.64 | -0.1 | It is so much fun to watch the Browns' defense and so horrible to watch the offense. |
| 19 | NYJ | 4.43 | 4.54 | -0.11 | What could have been if Aaron Rodgers hadn’t gotten hurt? |
| 20 | TEN | 5.1 | 5.26 | -0.16 | The Titans had a nice win Monday, and Levis looks good, but the rebuild is serious. |
| 21 | CHI | 5.01 | 5.18 | -0.17 | Yes, the Bears should draft a quarterback. But can they ever develop one? |
| 22 | LAC | 5.2 | 5.59 | -0.39 | The Chargers could have had Sean Payton. What a miss. |
| 23 | LV | 4.78 | 5.19 | -0.41 | It’s amusing to see Mark Davis on the field pretending he’s his dad. |
| 24 | JAX | 5.16 | 5.61 | -0.45 | Travon Walker: 28 games, 8.5 sacks, 23 quarterback hits. |
| 25 | PIT | 4.85 | 5.32 | -0.47 | Mike Tomlin needs to realize guys like George Pickens can’t fix everything. |
| 26 | TB | 4.95 | 5.6 | -0.65 | Despite a 6-7 record, the Buccaneers are closer to struggling than dominating. |
| 27 | ARI | 4.85 | 5.51 | -0.66 | Kyler Murray's electrifying runs glimmer, but consistency remains elusive. |
| 28 | DEN | 5.12 | 5.88 | -0.76 | After a rough start, Payton has the Broncos exceeding expectations, even with a shaky defense. |
| 29 | CIN | 5.2 | 5.98 | -0.78 | Joe Burrow's injury masks a concerning decline in the Bengals' defensive prowess. |
| 30 | WAS | 5.13 | 6 | -0.87 | The Commanders' stats might be worse if they didn't rely so heavily on the passing game. |
| 31 | CAR | 4.05 | 5 | -0.95 | If the Panthers' opponents upped their offensive game, their defensive struggles would be even more exposed. |
| 32 | NYG | 4.32 | 5.64 | -1.32 | Tommy DeVito is a fan favorite, but the Giants need a more complete offensive solution. |
San Francisco's Super Season
It is time to marvel at the San Francisco 49ers' season.
The 49ers aren’t just the best team in football right now, with a 10-3 record and a league-best plus-1.85-yards-per-play differential. They are doing other things that statistically dominate the league.
Let’s start with this nugget: The 49ers have the second-most offensive yards in the league right now (5,230), trailing only the Miami Dolphins (5,507). San Francisco is ahead of the Detroit Lions (5,047), Dallas Cowboys (4,959) and Buffalo Bills (4,926).
But here’s the trick: The 49ers have run significantly fewer plays than all of those teams. San Francisco has run only 776 plays this season. That’s 42 less than Miami, 77 less than Buffalo, and 97 less than Detroit and Dallas. Given that the average NFL team runs 63 plays a game this year, the 49ers are essentially playing one fewer game than all of those teams in total plays.
In fact, San Francisco has run the fifth-fewest plays in the entire NFL. Only the Las Vegas Raiders (755), Denver Broncos (763), Tennessee Titans (767) and Seattle Seahawks (775) have run fewer plays. None of those teams come close to San Francisco offensively.
San Francisco is leading the league in yards despite coach Kyle Shanahan calling plays like it’s 1973, not 2023. That’s a grotesque oversimplification of what Shanahan is doing, and that doesn’t appreciate the design and theory of Shanahan’s advanced system.
But the fact is that the 49ers are one of only four teams in the NFL that have more rushing attempts than passing attempts. The others are the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons, all teams with decidedly more run-first coaching mentalities.
Shanahan has perfected the concept of throwing to set up the run. His aggressiveness in throwing on first down has been documented by many. However, the impact of that aggression has played out in a marvel of efficiency.
It’s not just that the 49ers are averaging a league-leading 6.74 yards every time they run an offensive play (they finally overtook Miami this past week). The temptation would be to think that if you have a group that includes Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, you have a lot of mouths to feed.
Theoretically, to keep them all happy, you’d think Shanahan would have to run a lot of plays to make sure everybody gets the ball. Instead, Shanahan is doing the opposite. In fact, he’s almost taking a page out of the playbook of the late Dan Reeves, a coach who won many games by shortening games via the run and taking as much time off the clock whenever possible.
That a Shanahan would borrow an idea from Reeves is more than a little ironic, especially if you know the history of Reeves and Shanahan's father, Mike.
That’s a story for another time. For now, it is enough to state that the 49ers are the best team in the league and the overwhelming favorite to win the Super Bowl if they stay healthy. That, of course, has been a constant problem for San Francisco in recent years. It showed up again earlier this season during a three-game losing streak. Samuel and LT Trent Williams went down with injuries, which doomed the 49ers' offense. The loss of Williams was particularly problematic.
When healthy, the 49ers have stomped on the best of the league. They dominated Dallas at home and the Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. They swept Seattle with relative ease. If you have watched the 49ers play at their best, it’s easy to see why they lead the NFL in YPPD.
But exactly how they are doing that is even more impressive.
A Chief Mistake?
To those familiar with the thinking of Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach, there is zero question that the Chiefs will upgrade their wide receiver depth chart this offseason. One of the big reasons Kansas City is struggling at 8-5 is that the team's yards per play on offense have gone from a league-leading 6.42 in 2022 to 5.64 this season.
Thus, despite the Chiefs having the best defense of the Patrick Mahomes era, they are teetering as a serious contender this season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore will all either be gone or be deep on the depth chart and fighting for a backup job, at best, next season.
Who the replacements will be is yet to be determined: Will the Chiefs go high-end in free agency (Tee Higgins?) or look to the draft? The important point is that the wide receiver room is going to change. Furthermore, don’t ever expect Mahomes to be left without competent weapons again.
That’s because, as one team source said this week in the aftermath of Mahomes' tirade after the loss to Buffalo: “Patrick blew up at the officials, but we all know his frustration is with the mistakes those guys are making. He just can’t say that publicly.”
The Chiefs have lost at least three games (Buffalo, Detroit and Philadelphia) this season because of mistakes or drops from their wide receivers. Toney, by himself, is directly responsible for the Buffalo and Detroit losses.
From that perspective, this has been a vital learning experience for Veach, who, along with coach Andy Reid, overestimated Toney and Moore's ability to become better players. Both have regressed to the point that they are almost unplayable. The Chiefs' decision this season to bring back Mecole Hardman was a damning comment about the failure of Toney and Moore to become better players.
Neither has been able to duplicate what JuJu Smith-Schuster produced a year ago (78 catches, 933 yards and three touchdowns). Toney and Moore likely won’t even combine to do it. Through 13 games, they have 46 catches for 408 yards and two touchdowns.
Of course, it was easy to think that after winning the Super Bowl last year after trading away Tyreek Hill, replacing receivers would be easier than you think. It’s not. And the Chiefs, who are still legitimate contenders if they can eliminate mistakes, have learned that the hard way.
Chicago: QB Wasteland
With it looking increasingly likely that the Chicago Bears will take a quarterback at No. 1 overall (Chicago has the Carolina Panthers' pick and its own pick, which, right now, is No. 6), there’s one crucial question to ask.
Do the Bears know how to develop a quarterback?
Better yet, if you’re Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, will you risk your career by going to Chicago?
This is a historic issue. The list of quarterbacks the Bears have drafted is long and filled with repeated failure. Since 1939, when they took Hall of Famer Sid Luckman and eventually used him to change the game by introducing the T-formation, the Bears have selected 18 quarterbacks with a pick in the top three rounds.
Bobby Layne played one year before being traded and later developing into a Hall of Famer with Detroit. Don Meredith was interesting, but he was drafted to help the expansion Cowboys and then had a better career with ABC. Jim McMahon showed promise and even caddied the Bears' defense to a title in 1985 before getting hurt. John Harbaugh was gritty and fun, but more because of his battles with Mike Ditka than because of his play.
Since then, it has been awful. Cade McNown, Rex Grossman and Mitch Trubisky are a trio of failures who make Justin Fields look promising by comparison. Some people are holding onto the idea that Fields could still develop after the past two games.
Don’t be fooled. Fields is still not that good. At an average of 5.57 net yards per pass play (passing yards minus sack yardage), he is way below the league average of 6.02 yards per play. Even in the past two victories over Detroit and Minnesota, Fields was well below average.
He also comes with roughly a $25 million price tag in 2025 if the Bears want to pick up his fifth-year option. That’s too much to gamble on a guy who hasn't improved enough over three years. Yes, Fields might still be good one day, but paying to see if it will happen is a bad bet.
But that relates to the original point: Do the Bears know what they’re doing with quarterbacks? This is an institutional issue, not just a coaching issue. Chicago ownership, led by George McCaskey, has never shown a plan for improving or building around a prospect. The Bears have never had a genuinely great wide receiver. They have never collected offensive talent to ease the burden around a passer.
Instead, Chicago has become a place where quarterbacks go to die.
Odds and Ends
Brutal Play Continues
To follow up on my recent article on the declining quality of play — the 3-0 victory by Minnesota at Las Vegas marked only the fourth time since 1979 that an NFL game has ended in that score. Basically, it happens once a decade.
However, this comes only a week after the Chargers beat New England 6-0. That means the 2023 season is only the second time since 1935 that the NFL has had a 3-0 game and a 6-0 game. The other season was 1993.
Making Sense of the Madness
For those who have asked this fantasy football question about the end of the Chiefs' game, the answer is:
If the Chiefs' late-game touchdown had counted against Buffalo, it would have gone down as a touchdown pass for Mahomes, with both Travis Kelce and Toney registering receiving yardage.
That answer comes via the NFL Senior Vice President of Football Communications Michael Signora and is consistent with the Miracle in Miami play from 2018 when the Dolphins upset New England on the final, multilateral play.
Belichick Out? Bank on It
Some people will take the reports that New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft has already decided to move on from coach Bill Belichick with a grain of salt. However, if you know the work of NBC Sports Boston reporter Tom Curran, you can pretty much take it to the bank that Belichick is gone.
Curran knows his way around the Patriots after decades of covering the team. Moreover, he’s a guy who can get to both Kraft and Belichick to check his work. This is also consistent with something Kraft said years ago to another owner. During a league meeting after Belichick issued a lame apology for the first SpyGate saga, another owner asked Kraft how long he was willing to put up with Belichick’s antics. Kraft replied, “As long as he wins.”
The fact is that the Patriots have quickly fallen in the eyes of the New England media, with the Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins topping them. The situation is so bad that the Patriots media relations department has started sending weekly releases touting the team’s work in the community to drum up interest. The Patriots haven't done that for nearly 25 years.
Barring some strange turn of events, this looks pretty locked up and like a sad way for Belichick to go out when he’s so close to breaking Don Shula’s all-time wins record.
