Betting
11/4/22
8 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Packers vs. Lions
Green Bay Packers (3-5) at Detroit Lions (1-6)
Opening Spread: Lions +3.5
Opening Game Total: 49
Opening Team Totals: Lions (22.75), Packers (26.25)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions +3.5.
- This line remains at Lions +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Lions +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Lions +3.5.
- This total opened at 49 points.
- This total has moved slightly up to 49.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Lions: Out: WR Jameson Williams, WR D.J. Chark, OG Tommy Kraemer, S Tracy Walker; Questionable: RB D’Andre Swift, WR Josh Reynolds, TE Brock Wright, LT Taylor Decker, Edge Charles Harris
Packers: Out: Randall Cobb; Questionable: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, Edge Preston Smith, LB De’Vondre Campbell
The Lions Offense vs. Packers Defense
This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup. The Lions are a top-10 offensive line, and the Packers have a top-10 caliber front. In general, this trench matchup is a relative draw. If Lions LT Taylor Decker ends up missing this contest, however, that would create more opportunities for Green Bay’s pass rush against a pure pocket passer in Jared Goff.
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Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are 5-2 on overs this season.
- Jared Goff is 46-42-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jared Goff is 44-46 on overs in his career.
- Dan Campbell is 18-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Dan Campbell is 17-19 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Lions Offense
- The Lions are scoring 24.7 points per game, which is tied for ninth in the league.
- Detroit is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, D’Andre Swift had five carries and five targets in his return to action against the Dolphins last week. Jamaal Williams had 10 carries and three targets.
- Lions head coach Dan Campbell said that Swift is “not back” after last week's game. We can reasonably expect Jamaal Williams to take the lion's share of the carries this week while Swift is eased into the offense coming off his ankle injury.
- After a slow couple of games, Amon-Ra St. Brown saw 10 targets last week while posting seven receptions for 69 yards receiving.
- Josh Reynolds has at least six targets in four of the last five games.
- Kalif Raymond has between four and seven targets in each of the last four games.
- Brock Wright will replace T.J. Hockenson at tight end for the Lions. Wright had four catches for 57 yards receiving against Dallas in Week 7.
Packers Defense
- The Packers have allowed 21.6 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the 19th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Packers Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Packers have a middle-of-the-pack offensive line that has their left tackle and left guard on the injury report. Both players have missed games and consistently been listed as at least questionable throughout the year. Thankfully for Green Bay, Detroit has a bottom-tier front. Given the injury status of the Packers' line, I’m treating this trench matchup as more of a draw than a moderate advantage for the Packers.
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Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 3-5 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 125-92-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 113-106-2 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 35-22 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 26-31 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Packers Offense
- The Packers are scoring 18.1 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Green Bay is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Aaron Jones has the 10th-most yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game.
- A.J. Dillon has only breached 50 yards rushing three times this season. He’s caught more than one pass in three games this year.
- Allen Lazard leads Green Bay with his 19.9% target share and 34.5% air yards share.
- Romeo Doubs is second on the team with a 17.8% target share and 24% air yards share.
- Robert Tonyan has a 15.6% target share and a 13.3% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Allen Lazard has played 197 snaps on the perimeter and 108 in the slot. If Lazard is active for this contest, he’ll have played more snaps from the slot than any other active Packers wide receiver (Randall Cobb has more but will miss this contest).
Lions Defense
- The Lions have allowed 32.1 points per game, which is dead last in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the third-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Detroit has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Detroit has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Lions have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Lions vs. Packers
A bet on the Lions is a bet on one of two core outcomes. The first is that Detroit’s top-10 caliber offense at least meets expectations against a talented, but underachieving Packers' defense. Green Bay has really struggled against the run this year. Detroit’s top-10 offensive line and talented running back duo will be a challenge for Green Bay’s struggling run defense. A balanced, if not slightly run heavy attack is in Detroit’s best interest against Green Bay. The second outcome is that Green Bay’s struggling offense continues its downward spiral against Detroit’s league-worst defense. If I’m betting on the Lions, I’m betting on their offense meeting expectations while holding Green Bay slightly below its 26-point team total.
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A bet on the Packers is a bet on a team whose season is slipping away despite having a talented defense, solid offensive line, high-end running back duo, and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers' offense has struggled all season, and now they get Detroit’s league-worst defense. If you’re betting on the Packers, you are betting on this offense taking a significant step forward in this matchup where they at least approach their 26-point team total. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, so this is a big game for his wide receiver group to collectively make an impact. Green Bay’s defense is talented, but they haven’t exactly been consistent to this point in the season. Their run defense has been a liability. Even if the Packers' offense continues to underwhelm, Green Bay’s defense has enough talent to limit Detroit’s injury reduced offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Aidan Hutchinson is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Green Bay in most of my winner pools and I expect to be slightly above consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings. That said, Detroit isn’t an unreasonable differentiator candidate against the struggling Packers.
Spread Pool: I lean towards the Packers' side against the spread, but I don’t plan to play this game currently.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: Jaguars' Trade for Calvin Ridley Shows Commitment to 2023
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