Analysis
10/29/22
7 min read
NFL Week 8: Odds, Spreads, Picks, and Predictions for 49ers vs. Rams
San Francisco 49ers (3-4) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Opening Spread: Rams +2.
Opening Game Total: 42.
Team Totals: Rams (20), 49ers (22)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no weather concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Rams +2.
- This line has moved down to Rams +.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Rams +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Rams +1.5.
- This total opened at 42 points.
- This total has moved slightly down to 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Rams: IR: WR Van Jefferson, LT Joe Noteboom, CB Troy Hill.
49ers: IR: Javon Kinlaw. Out: FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Deebo Samuel, DT Arik Armstead, LB Drew Greenlaw. Questionable: WR Jauan Jennings.
The Rams Offense vs. the 49ers Defense
At full strength, the 49ers have a top-five front four. With Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead sidelined, this is more of a fringe top-ten group with an elite edge rusher in Nick Bosa. The Rams offensive line has been among the most disappointing position groups this season. They are a bottom-tier group that is now missing left tackle, Joe Noteboom. The last time these two teams played, the 49ers' pass rush dominated that game. The 49ers still have an edge in the trenches here, but they are not at full strength for round two of this divisional bout.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Matthew Stafford is 84-99-5 against the spread in his career.
- Matthew Stafford is 95-90-3 on overs in his career.
- Sean McVay is 45-40-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McVay is 40-46-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Rams Offense
- The Rams are scoring 17.3 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Los Angeles is tenth in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
- We can reasonably expect Darrell Henderson to be on top of the Rams running backs group this week, with veteran Malcolm Brown serving as his primary reserve.
- Per the Edge, Cooper Kupp leads the league in target share (32.7%) and is 11th in air yards share (38.5%).
- Kupp had 14 receptions on 19 targets for 122 yards receiving when these two teams last faced off in early October.
- Allen Robinson has breached 50 yards receiving in two of six games this season.
- Among tight ends, Tyler Higbee is fourth in the league with his 22.7% target share.
49ers Defense
- The 49ers have allowed 19 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- San Francisco has given up the 15th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The 49ers have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The 49ers Offense vs. the Rams Defense
The Rams front four is an average unit as a whole, with a historic interior disrupter in Aaron Donald and a solid Edge in Leonard Floyd. With elite left tackle Trent Williams back in action, the 49ers have a fringe top-ten offensive line that is strong on the edge and questionable in the interior. The 49ers offensive line has an advantage on the outside, while Aaron Donald represents a significant mismatch against the 49ers inconsistent interior.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 41-27-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 35-32-2 on overs in his career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 42-45-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kyle Shanahan is 43-43-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
49ers Offense
- The 49ers are scoring 20.7 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- San Francisco is 14th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey had eight carries and two targets in his 49ers debut last weekend.
- We should get a better idea of how Kyle Shanahan intends to deploy McCaffrey in his system this week.
- Brandon Aiyuk is second on the 49ers in target share (21.6%) and is the leader in air yards share (28.6%).
- George Kittle has a 19.9% target share and a 16.8% air yards share. Both are third on the team.
- Per TruMedia, Brandon Aiyuk has played 310 snaps on the perimeter and 79 in the slot.
Rams Defense
- The Rams have allowed 21 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 17th most yards rushing per game and the 17th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 14th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles has given up the second most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in 49ers vs. Rams
When these two teams last met in Week 4, the 49ers front four dominated that contest on the way to a 24-9 victory on Monday Night Football. Both of these teams have disappointed to this point in the season, as Geno Smith’s Seahawks currently sit on top of the NFC West.
A bet on the Rams is a bet on the defending champs getting their season back on track after coming off their bye. The key to this game for the Rams is their ability to mitigate the 49ers pass rush. A significant positive for Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford’s offense is San Francisco is down their second and third-best defensive linemen. The Rams are also down left tackle Joe Noteboom, so this trench matchup is significantly different than it was just a few weeks ago.
Deebo Samuel being ruled out for this contest is a good thing for the Rams, as the 49ers have a very complete skill group at full strength. Even without Samuel, my second most significant concern with a Rams bet is that the 49ers have enough talent advantages on offense to give the Rams defense fits in this contest. In some ways, a bet on the Rams can be a bet against Jimmy Garoppolo.
A bet on the 49ers is a bet on a team that has simply had the Rams' number in the regular season over the past few years. On defense, the 49ers still have an advantage in the trenches despite being down two of their best players in that phase. Adding Christian McCaffrey helps mitigate the loss of Deebo Samuel this week, as San Francisco still has three quality weapons on offense with McCaffrey in the fold.
I have two core concerns with a 49ers bet. The first is that their reduced front four allows Matthew Stafford’s offense to play a significantly better game than the last time these two teams met. My second is that the Rams are coming off their bye, they need a win, and Aaron Donald gets a struggling interior offensive line.
49ers vs. Rams Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Rams in winner pools, and I will treat this game as a coin flip in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I prefer the Rams side in this contest, though I have not directly bet them since Saturday morning. The Rams are in my pool of potential options in ATS tournaments this weekend.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
WATCH MORE: Fantasy expert Josh Larky and former NFL head coach Marty Mornhinweg discuss how the 49ers offense will adjust with Christian McCaffrey
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