Analysis
10/29/22
7 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Dolphins vs. Lions
Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5)
Opening Spread: Lions +3.
Opening Game Total: 49.5.
Team Totals: Lions (23.25), Dolphins (26.25).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions +3.
- This line has moved to Lions +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Lions +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Lions +3.5.
- This total opened at 49.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 50.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Lions: IR: WR DJ Chark. Out: Edge Charles Harris, S DeShon Elliot. Questionable: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, LG Jonah Jackson.
Dolphins: Out: Bryon Jones. Questionable: TE Durham Smythe, Edge Emmanuel Ogbah, CB Xavien Howard, P Thomas Morstead.
The Lions Offense vs. the Dolphins Defense
Detroit has a top-five offensive line. The Dolphins front is right around the border of an average to a below average unit. The Lions have a trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 3-3 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are 4-2 on overs this season.
- Jared Goff is 46-41-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jared Goff is 43-46 on overs in his career.
- Dan Campbell is 18-17 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Dan Campbell is 16-19 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Lions Offense
- The Lions are scoring 24.3 points per game, good for ninth in the league.
- Detroit is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- The Lions offense has struggled in their last two outings, but injuries have also ravaged them during those matchups.
- Per the Edge, Jared Goff has breached 300 yards passing once this season, throwing four or more touchdown passes twice.
- D’Andre Swift has missed Detroit’s last three games. In the three games that he was active, he averaged 8.6 yards per carry with a range of three to five targets.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown had a range of nine to 12 targets through the first three games this season. He’s missed a game, had six targets against the Patriots, and left last week’s matchup against Dallas early with a concussion, despite not actually suffering a concussion.
- Over the past four games, Josh Reynolds had two targets, eight, and ten twice.
- T.J. Hockenson is eighth among tight ends in target share (19.4%) and fifth in air yards share (17.4%).
- Per TruMedia, Jamaal Williams is sixth in the league in red zone carries despite the Lions already having their bye.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has played 76 snaps on the perimeter and 114 in the slot.
- Josh Reynolds has played 224 snaps on the perimeter and 91 in the slot.
Dolphins Defense
- The Dolphins have allowed 23.6 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Miami has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
- The Dolphins have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the eighth-most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Dolphins Offense vs. the Lions Defense
The Dolphins have a middle-of-the-pack offensive line with a high-end left tackle in Terron Armstead. Second-overall pick Aidan Hutchinson already looks like an impact player, but overall, the Lions have a below-average front. Miami’s offensive line has a slight trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 17-10-1 against the spread in his career.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 10-18 on overs in his career.
- Mike McDaniel is 3-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McDaniel is 2-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Dolphins Offense
- The Dolphins are scoring 21 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Miami is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- The Dolphins are 4-0 in games Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.
- Per the Edge, Raheem Mostert has had at least 14 carries and two targets in each of the last four games.
- Tyreek Hill leads the league in yards receiving (773), targets (79), and receptions (57). Hill is fourth in the league in target share (31.7%), and he’s seventh in air yards share (40.5%).
- Jaylen Waddle is fourth in the league in yards receiving (621) and 17th in receptions (34). Waddle has a 21.3% target share and a 26.4% air yards share.
- Mike Gesicki has seven targets in each of the last two games.
Lions Defense
- The Lions have allowed 32.3 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Detroit has given up the ninth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Lions have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Dolphins vs. Lions
This is an indoor game between two offenses that both have at least a slight advantage in the trenches, quarterbacks that are capable of breaching 300 yards passing, and dynamic skill groups. Those are fantastic conditions for an over. This total has moved in that direction, but I’m surprised that a 27-24 game could still win an over bet as of this writing.
A bet on the Lions is a bet on a team with a very talented offense that was leading the league in points scored per game until injuries changed their offense. Consider Detroit a top-ten caliber offense entering this contest close to full strength for the first time in weeks. The Lions league-worst defense is your concern with a Lions bet here, as they’ll be facing a well-coached, talented Miami offense in this matchup. We saw the Lions get very aggressive while searching for their first win last season. It would be no surprise if Detroit treated this game with a “nothing to lose” mindset.
Last season Mike McDaniel was the offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. On opening day last year in Detroit, the 49ers beat the Lions 41-33. A Mike McDaniel-led offense has already had great, recent success against Dan Campbell’s Lions. If you’re betting on Miami, your bet is built on their talented offense, hanging some serious points on the struggling Lions. Detroit has its own capable offense. That, paired with the Lions being in complete desperation mode, is your concern with a Dolphins bet.
Dolphins vs. Lions Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate, and Aidan Hutchinson is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Dolphins in most of my winner pools, but I will take Detroit in one as a differentiator. I expect to be in line, if not a little higher than the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I took Dolphins -2.5 early in the week because I thought this game should at least be Dolphins -3.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
WATCH MORE: Former All-Pro QB Rich Gannon pleads with Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to take fewer unnecessary hits.
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