Analysis
10/5/23
5 min read
NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Justin Fields Passing Yards Bet
- More than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes each week. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Justin Fields OVER 189.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This line has already risen to 193.5 yards on DraftKings. Justin Fields has topped this number in three of four games, with the lone miss being the 41-0 Kansas City Chiefs debacle. In that game, he only attempted 22 passes for 99 yards.
Looking at the other three games, he averaged 34 pass attempts and 254 yards with at least 29 attempts and 211 yards. Quarterbacks have averaged 7.5 yards per attempt (Y/A) vs. the Washington Commanders this year. Let's assume Fields only averages 6.5 Y/A in this game since he's a bad passer (he's at 7.0 Y/A this year).
He'd then need 29 attempts to go over this number. This line should be set at closer to 202.5 passing yards, so this play has strong value. I also sprinkled on the Fields alt passing lines on FanDuel: 200+ yards at +120 odds, 225+ yards at +230 odds, 250+ yards at +430 odds and 275+ yards at +850 odds.
Bet by: Larky
Antonio Gibson Longest Reception OVER 8.5 Yards
Best Odds: -130 on DraftKings/BetMGM, -125 on Bet365
Last year, Antonio Gibson had 21 receptions of at least nine yards, hitting this number in 12 of 15 games (80 percent). Gibson has hit this number this season in three of four games (75 percent).
Turning to the defense, Chicago has already allowed six receptions of at least nine yards to running backs through four games (Aaron Jones 2x, A.J. Dillon, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Rachaad White).
Bet by: Larky
Brock Purdy OVER 2.5 Rush Attempts
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Brock Purdy has at least three carries in three of four games. Quarterbacks against Dallas are constantly under pressure (and then they run). The Cowboys’ 47 percent pressure rate against opposing passers, via our free and flagship tool, The Edge, is tops in the league — no other team is even at 44 percent.
Looking at how other quarterbacks fared this season:
- Week 1: 13 carries from Daniel Jones
- Week 2: 5 carries from Zach Wilson
- Week 3: 6 carries from Joshua Dobbs
- Week 4: 3 carries from Mac Jones
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds, Wolby
Tyler Conklin OVER 2.5 Receptions
Best Odds: -145 on DraftKings
Tyler Conklin has had at least five targets and three receptions each of his past three games. During that stretch, he averaged 5.7 targets, 4.0 receptions and 45 yards. He’s also been second on the team in targets behind only WR Garrett Wilson in each of the past three weeks. The Broncos simply refuse to cover anyone on defense.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds, Wolby
Christian Watson OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
Christian Watson only ran half the routes in his return last week and caught two of four targets for 25 yards. However, his targets per route run rate was 21 percent, which is solid. Now, with 11 days rest, he should run close to, if not a full, share of the routes.
Last season Watson had 46 or more yards in seven of eight games as the starter with Aaron Rodgers. He just needs 39 on Monday though. The Raiders have a terrible secondary. Cornerback Marcus Peters is 30 years old and 6-feet tall, and ran a 4.53 40-time nearly a decade ago. Cornerback Nate Hobbs is a 2021 fifth-round pick and 6-foot tall as well. He ran a 4.48. Watson runs in the high 4.3s, stands at 6-foot-4 and can hit this over on only a couple receptions.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds, Wolby
Wan’Dale Robinson OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Odds: -110 on BetMGM
Wan’Dale RobinsonWan’Dale Robinson has beat this in each of his two games this year. After nine routes in Week 3, he was up to 29 last week. The Miami Dolphins have given up the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers. After last week’s pass protection debacle against the Seattle SeahawksSeattle Seahawks, I expect the New York Giants to have a similar game plan to what they did with San Francisco: quick-release throws. Daniel Jones can execute these kinds of game plans, and this falls in Robinson’s wheelhouse, along with crossers and drags.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
Dalton Kincaid OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +135 Bet MGM
We’re targeting tight ends against the Jacksonville Jaguars because they allow the third-most receiving yards. Dalton Kincaid has beat this in three of his four games, and his playing time is getting more stable. He’s the primary reason I’m more bullish on the Buffalo Bills this year than last year; Kincaid is a real difference-maker.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
Joe Mixon OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
I’m going to tell you guys a secret… When Joe Burrow takes an absolute beating from a pass rush, coach Zac Taylor tends to come back the next week and lean on Joe Mixon. The Arizona Cardinals have given up the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs. Tony Pollard and Christian McCaffrey both went over 100 yards. Brian Robinson and Saquon Barkley missed this mark by a fairly small margin. Mixon has at least 13 carries in every game this year, and while he hasn’t hit this yet, his team has played good run defenses and spent a lot of time in negative game scripts. Tee Higgins is out, and Tyler Boyd is on the decline.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky, Wolby
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