Analysis
10/5/23
10 min read
NFL Week 5: Expert Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Every Thursday, we’ll provide analysis and score predictions for every game on that week’s slate. We’re through four games now, so we’re gradually getting a better idea of who each team is and what they do well.
Thursday Night Football
Bears at Commanders
Spread: Commanders -6
Total: 44.5
The Chicago Bears gift-wrapped a comeback win for the Denver Broncos last week, which means everyone in Chicago is now on the hot seat. In that matchup, Justin Fields had his most productive game as an NFL passer.
Any progress is a positive for the Bears, but remember that the Broncos’ pass defense has been shockingly ineffective. They routinely left Bears’ pass catchers open last Sunday. The Washington Commanders’ elite front four makes this a tougher matchup for Fields’ passing attack.
Ultimately, this game boils down to how well Sam Howell plays. We saw his floor a couple of weeks ago against the Bills, and then we saw some ceiling last week against the Eagles.
Bears’ safety Eddie Jackson and CB Jaylon Johnson will miss another game, making things easier for Howell. Additionally, the Bears' nearly non-existent pass rush isn’t positioned to exploit Washington’s below-average offensive line.
Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Bears 20
Sunday Morning Game
Jaguars at Bills (London)
Spread: Bills -5.5
Total: 48.5
The Buffalo Bills have dominated three opponents in a row, including a 28-point win against the dangerous Miami Dolphins. Now, they’ll cross an ocean to face the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville beat Atlanta in London last week, so it won’t have to deal with the unordinary travel like the Bills. It’s hard to quantify how big of an edge that is, as this is the first time an NFL team will play two games in the same season overseas.
Despite that wrinkle, Josh Allen is the current MVP favorite, and the Bills’ defense has been among the league’s best. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have struggled early, but they have the raw materials to scare any team.
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Jaguars 23
Sunday Afternoon Slate
Giants at Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -11
Total: 49.5
The Miami Dolphins are coming off a 28-point loss in Buffalo, putting them in an obvious bounce-back spot this week. They face a New York Giants team that, outside of a 31-point half against the Cardinals, has scored just 15 total points in three and a half games.
New York can’t block anyone and has given up at least 24 points in its first four games. The Giants must transform into a different team to keep up with Miami’s backbreaking offense.
The one path New York has is if its defensive front can create consistent disruption against Miami’s injury-ravaged offensive line. Additionally, after Monday night’s debacle, expect the Giants to throw more short passes to try and mitigate Miami’s pass rush.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 38, Giants 17
Panthers at Lions
Spread: Lions -9.5
Total: 44.5
The Detroit Lions are a contender who can win in the air, on the ground and now with their ascending defense. You could argue the Carolina Panthers have been the worst team in the league through four games.
Bryce Young will be fine long-term, but right now, he’s supported by an ineffective run game, an inconsistent offensive line and one of the league’s worst wide receiver rooms. If Carolina is going to keep this one close, it likely comes through a solid defensive effort.
Even in that scenario, Detroit likely needs to play down for the Panthers to stay within striking distance.
Score Prediction: Lions 27, Panthers 17
Ravens at Steelers
Spread: Steelers +4
Total: 38.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense was already disappointing before Kenny Pickett’s knee injury.
Score Prediction: Ravens 16, Steelers 13
Texans at Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2
Total: 41
The Houston Texans have blown out the Jaguars and Steelers in the last two weeks. Houston’s defense exceeded expectations in both of those contests. C.J. Stroud is playing at a historic level through his first four games as a pro. Injuries have decimated Houston’s offensive line, which has only impacted their running game.
The Atlanta Falcons have a rock-solid roster outside of the quarterback position. No one should expect much from Desmond Ridder, but the Falcons running game will be the best Houston has faced. For Atlanta to win this game, its defensive front needs to make a consistent impact against Houston’s injury-reduced offensive line.
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Texans 20
Saints at Patriots
Spread: Patriots -1.5
Total: 40
Derek Carr played through a throwing shoulder injury last week, and it showed on several of his downfield passes. The New Orleans Saints have a talented team on both sides of the ball, but Carr’s injury limits the offense’s ceiling.
If Jameis Winston gets the start, this offense becomes even more volatile. They’ll go to New England to face a Patriots team that was embarrassed in Dallas. The New England Patriots have several injury situations on defense, which includes premium Edge Matthew Judon, who could miss the rest of the season.
Additionally, Mac Jones was pulled from last week’s blowout in the third quarter. That doesn’t mean New England has a quarterback controversy, but they could be another lousy outing away from falling into one. Both of these teams are coming off disappointing performances, but the Patriots have a lot of hurdles this week.
Score Prediction: Saints 20, Patriots 17
Titans at Colts
Spread: Colts -1
Total: 42.5
If you’re an Indianapolis Colts fan, you must feel good about Anthony Richardson and Shane Steichen as the franchise’s pillars. Jonathan Taylor could return this week, bolstering the Colts' already dangerous running game.
They’ll face one of the best run defenses in the league this week in Tennessee. The Tennessee Titans’ defensive front dominated Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week. You can beat Tennessee in the air if you can mitigate their high-end pass rush.
That puts this game largely on Richardson’s right arm. Another point of interest is that Ryan Tannehill and the passing attack will draw Indianapolis’s beatable secondary. If Tennessee is going to take a real step forward, its passing game needs to improve.
Score Prediction: Titans 24, Colts 20
Eagles at Rams
Spread: Rams +4
Total: 50.5
Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay should receive formal commendations for keeping the Los Angeles Rams ultra-competitive through the first four games. This week, they’ll host the Philadelphia Eagles’ loaded roster.
Philadelphia’s pass rush could be a real difference-maker in this contest. On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles’s defense has overachieved this season. Now, it’ll deal with an MVP-caliber quarterback behind an elite offensive line with one of the best wide receiver duos in football.
From a pure talent standpoint, the Eagles could dominate this matchup in multiple areas.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Rams 20
Bengals at Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals +3
Total: 44.5
Joe Burrow is playing through a calf injury behind the Cincinnati Bengals’ underachieving offensive line. That combination has led to the Bengals being the most disappointing team in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals were the consensus worst team in football heading into opening day. Once the games started, the Cardinals have been a high-effort team and tough out so far.
A month ago, the Bengals losing this game would have been unthinkable. That is no longer the case, as Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals have a realistic shot to win. Arizona’s offensive and defensive lines will play a significant role if they do.
Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Cardinals 20
Chiefs at Vikings
Spread: Vikings +5
Total: 53
The Minnesota Vikings did everything they could to lose to the Panthers last week but came away with a win. Now, they host Patrick Mahomes, whose offense hasn’t been impressive in the first four games.
That said, the great ones consistently find ways to win, regardless of how pretty or decisive it is. That’s who the Kansas City Chiefs have been through the first four games.
Before a messy 139 passing yards in Carolina last week, Kirk Cousins threw for more than 300 in each of his first three games. Cousins and his talented pass catchers will need to carry the Vikings if they are going to keep pace with Kansas City.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Vikings 27
Jets at Broncos
Spread: Broncos -2
Total: 43
The Denver Broncos’ defense has been historically ineffective through the first four games of this season. Everyone knows they gave up 70 points to the Dolphins, but you could have overlooked that Howell and Fields also shredded Denver.
Enter Zach Wilson, who received significant praise last week after a mildly effective outing against the Chiefs. Wilson could have a career day if Denver’s secondary plays like it has through its previous three games.
The New York Jets' high-end defense is a mismatch for Denver in multiple areas. Throw in Sean Payton’s negative comments about new Jets’ offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and New York should be highly motivated for this matchup.
Score Prediction: Jets 23, Broncos 17
Sunday Night Football
Cowboys at 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Total: 45
Now, this is a game that belongs in primetime. Both teams have complete rosters that can win games in multiple ways. When these teams met in the playoffs last year, the San Francisco 49ers won 19-12.
The 49ers have been hard to run on for years, which puts this game on Dak Prescott’s shoulders. The Dallas Cowboys have been successful since Prescott took over in 2016, but they haven’t won many big games during this era.
It’s hard to call a Week 5 matchup a “big game,” but it is one Dallas is expected to lose. If that happens, it’s likely because Prescott underwhelms. The other path for Dallas is its pass rush, which leads to Brock Purdy having his first meltdown game as a pro.
Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Cowboys 20
Monday Night Football
Packers at Raiders
Spread: Raiders +2.5
Total: 44.5
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a long week after a bad home loss to Detroit. Green Bay’s roster is better than the Las Vegas Raiders’, giving Las Vegas a few narrow paths to victory.
The first is the Packers have a below-average run defense, and Josh Jacobs is still a Raider. The second is Davante Adams has proved he’s quarterback-proof. Assuming Jimmy Garoppolo returns this week, the dynamic duo of Jacobs and Adams could give Las Vegas enough to knock off Green Bay. If they don’t, Green Bay has enough talent to win this contest decisively.
Score Prediction: Raiders 27, Packers 24
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
