Betting
1/3/24
14 min read
NFL Week 18 Team-By-Team Prop Betting, Fantasy Football Preview
This guide will help you understand which NFL teams are motivated in Week 18 and how to navigate the prop betting markets or Week 18 fantasy championships. Playoff implications, which teams are resting starters and other matchup notes are included throughout.
Saturday Games
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Steelers -3.5
Game Total: 36.5
Pittsburgh Steelers — 29 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Pittsburgh Steelers should be highly motivated against the Ravens because they’ll need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Against a Baltimore team that’s already clinched the No. 1 seed (and a first-round bye), all Steelers players should be considered for overs or pass on them.
Baltimore Ravens — Clinched AFC's No. 1 Seed
The Baltimore Ravens may play their starters for a couple of drives so they don’t go two weeks without NFL game action, but it will likely be the Steelers starters vs. the Ravens backups by halftime.
Baltimore's starters are unlikely to play in the second half, so betting unders should be considered when lines come out.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Texans -1
Game Total: 47.5
Houston Texans — 46 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Houston Texans will clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Indianapolis Colts. Houston wins the AFC South if the Jaguars lose on Sunday. While the Colts have faced an easier slate of quarterbacks, they still have allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt (7.2). That positions C.J. Stroud to have a big game through the air. His 213 passing yards in his Week 17 return from a concussion were largely due to the Titans’ anemic offense.
Indianapolis is also a plus matchup for the Houston run game because running backs average 106 rushing yards per game against the Colts (fifth-highest). In the receiving game, running backs average 44 yards per game against the Colts, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Devin Singletary overs can be considered, as 74 total yards in Week 18 would trigger a $125,000 bonus for him.
Indianapolis Colts — 54 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Colts make the playoffs with a home win and, like Houston, win the AFC South if the Jaguars lose. The Texans allow the seventh-most passing yards per game (260) yet the fourth-fewest (68) rushing yards per game to running backs. Gardner Minshew overs and Jonathan Taylor unders can be considered here. The Texans are also a slightly plus matchup for wide receivers.
Sunday Early Window Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Jaguars -5.5
Game Total: 39.5
Jacksonville Jaguars — 77 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Jacksonville Jaguars will secure the AFC South, and the No. 4 seed, with a win against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans lost several key defensive starters in the past two months and are a very beatable team through the air.
Should Trevor Lawrence return this week, he, Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones are in great spots for fantasy and prop betting. Despite tight end Evan Engram’s recent hot streak, when adjusting for schedule, the Titans are one of the three toughest teams for tight end receiving yardage. His overs are probably not a savvy play this week.
Tennessee Titans — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
The Jaguars pass defense has been a liability for much of the season, and DeAndre Hopkins gets an additional $250,000 if he records seven receptions. Look for long odds on a seven-reception milestone in the betting markets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Buccaneers -5.5
Game Total: 37.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 69 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win the AFC South and lock down the No. 4 seed with a win, so they’ll be highly motivated against a Carolina Panthers team that’s clinched the worst record in football.
Running backs had huge days on the ground against Carolina, so Rachaad White is a strong start in fantasy, and his overs should be looked at in betting markets. 6-foot-5 Mike Evans could have a massive day anytime he’s running routes against 5-foot-10 CB Donte Jackson, even though the Panthers have generally been stingy against receivers. Be careful if you’re blindly taking Evans’ unders in this contest.
Carolina Panthers - Clinched No. 1 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft
The Panthers failed to score against the Jaguars last week, and Bryce Young threw for just 112 yards, while Chuba Hubbard only ran for 45 himself. Against the stout Buccaneers’ defensive line, Hubbard's rushing unders are firmly in play.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -3
Game Total: 45
Minnesota Vikings — 3 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Minnesota Vikings need a win, along with some help from several other teams, to reach the playoffs. Nick Mullens likely draws the start at quarterback, and all pass game/receiving overs can be considered because the Detroit Lions are one of the five best secondaries to target for passing yardage. Conversely, the Vikings' struggling run game should be left alone or faded in betting markets against a stout Lions front.
Detroit Lions — Locked Up No. 2 or No. 3 Seed in the NFC
The Lions are the current No. 3 seed. A win against Minnesota and a Cowboys loss in the late afternoon slate will propel them to the No. 2 seed. Lions Coach Dan Campbell emphasizes culture and playing hard-nosed football and has stated he intends to play the Lions starters this week.
No team has allowed more receptions to wide receivers (14.8 per game) than the Vikings. Against their blitz-heavy scheme, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s short-area skill set should be on display, and his receptions overs should be carefully considered.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -3
Game Total: 42
Atlanta Falcons — 10 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
If the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints and the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers, then the Falcons reach the playoffs. Arthur Smith’s offense has been one of the hardest to predict each week with player usage, but the starters should be in for the entire game. Due to injuries to Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Alvin Kamara (ankle), Bijan Robinson finds himself as an elite fantasy start for those who have Week 18 championships on the line.
New Orleans Saints — 31 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Saints need to beat the Falcons, and the Buccaneers need to lose or tie against Carolina for New Orleans to make the playoffs. This team should be motivated, and assuming Kamara sits, it will need to be heavily reliant on the passing game.
The Falcons have been consistently beaten by tight ends, which pairs nicely with Juwan Johnson’s recent surge — his receiving yards overs should be given a close look later this week. Chris Olave struggled last week but should handle immense volume for fantasy managers if Kamara misses this game.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -2
Game Total: 30.5
New York Jets — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
The New England Patriots have consistently participated in sluggish offensive contests this year, so New York Jets' players should be unders or pass in the betting markets.
New England Patriots — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
The Patriots have the No. 3 pick in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft, but Bill Belichick’s coaching future is also at stake. They’re a tough team to pin down, but at the very least, we should see another heavy usage day for Ezekiel Elliott. The Jets secondary is the NFL’s best, so receiving unders are always on the table.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6
Game Total: 38.5
Cleveland Browns — Clinched No. 5 Seed
The Cleveland Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed and have no reason to play starters. Be careful betting any overs or starting any of their skill players in fantasy football.
Cincinnati Bengals — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
The Cincinnati Bengals are out of playoff contention and could rest their starters in Week 18. Be careful betting any overs or starting any of their skill players in fantasy football.
Sunday Late Window Games
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Spread: Cowboys -13
Game Total: 46
Dallas Cowboys — Clinched Playoff Berth
With a win, the Dallas Cowboys secure the No. 2 seed. If they lose and the Eagles win, they fall to the No. 5 seed. The Cowboys should steamroll the Washington Commanders' secondary, and all their passing game overs should be in play here.
Washington Commanders — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
They currently have the No. 2 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and with Sam Howell’s recent struggles, they may prioritize picking a quarterback such as Drake Maye at No. 2 over putting up a fight against their division rival Dallas Cowboys. If the Commanders play their starters, Howell passing unders and interception props are in play. For fantasy football, RB Brian Robinson has the best matchup in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Spread: Eagles -5.5
Game Total: 42
Philadelphia Eagles — Clinched Playoff Berth
The Philadelphia Eagles can get as high as the No. 2 seed if they win and the Cowboys lose. Otherwise, they’ll be the No. 5 seed and face whichever team wins the NFC South (Buccaneers, Saints or Falcons) on the road.
An issue with motivation arises because the Cowboys play simultaneously and could smoke the Commanders. Coach Nick Sirianni has publicly acknowledged the Cowboys game will factor into his decisions in this one, and he could pull starters early if Dallas jumps out to a multi-touchdown lead at halftime. Be wary of Eagles players in fantasy and prop betting markets.
New York Giants — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
Out of the playoffs and currently holding the No. 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the New York Giants played the Eagles hard two weeks ago, losing by one score. Philadelphia is exploitable through the air. Assuming Tyrod Taylor is under center, this New York pass attack is intriguing, especially if the Eagles turn to second-stringers for the final quarter or two.
Saquon Barkley is not under contract next season, and it’s unclear if he will remain in New York. Unfortunately for him, the Eagles rank as one of the toughest matchups for opposing backs.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -3
Game Total: 44
Chicago Bears — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
While the Chicago Bears were eliminated from the playoffs a couple of weeks ago, Justin Fields is playing for the rest of his career. He faces a Packers pass defense that’s been inconsistent. WR DJ Moore has publicly vouched for the signal caller, and it would not be wise to blindly bet any Bears unders.
Khalil Herbert has at least 18 carries for 112 rushing yards in back-to-back games and faces a Packers team that struggles to stop the run. His overs, especially long shots like reaching 75 or 100 rushing yards, are firmly in play in this matchup.
Green Bay Packers — 60 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Green Bay Packers will make the playoffs with a win against the Bears. Despite the high level of motivation for the Packers, the Bears have played strong defense the past two months. Be wary of getting too excited about Packers’ overs with their depleted receiving core — Jayden Reed left Week 17 early, and Christian Watson hasn’t played in nearly a month.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Game Total: 38
Denver Broncos — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
Expect another Jarrett Stidham start against a tough divisional foe. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has played at a top-10 level since Antonio Pierce took over, and Denver Broncos players should be viewed as unders or passes in the prop markets.
Las Vegas Raiders — Eliminated From Playoff Contention
The players want Pierce to be their coach next year, and they’ve played hard in the second half of the season. Josh Jacobs should return from injury and is not under contract in 2024. He could have a 100-yard day against a Broncos defense allowing 5.3 yards per carry to running backs, by far the highest mark in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Seahawks -2.5
Game Total: 48
Seattle Seahawks — 26 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Seattle Seahawks sneak into the playoffs with a win and a Packers loss. Geno Smith also gets an additional $2 million if he can lead the team to the playoffs. Given how well the Bears' defense has played, it’s tough to imagine the Packers blowing out Chicago.
The Seahawks are all strong starts in fantasy this week against a lackluster Arizona Cardinals defense. The Cardinals allow top-five marks in yards per pass attempt and yards per carry, so Seattle skill players could be in for some big performances.
Arizona Cardinals - Eliminated From Playoff Contention
The Cardinals currently own the fourth pick in the upcoming draft, and Kyler Murray is playing for his future, in Arizona or elsewhere. The Seahawks have struggled against running backs and slot wide receivers this season, so James Conner, Rondale Moore, and — to a lesser extent — Greg Dortch are in plus matchups. Seattle is also the only team to allow more than 400 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, so Murray should use his legs heavily.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Game Total: 42
Los Angeles Rams — Locked Up No. 6 or No. 7 Seed in the NFC
The Los Angeles Rams announced Carson Wentz will start at quarterback, signaling they’re OK with facing Detroit or Dallas in the Wild Card round. A win against the San Francisco 49ers gives them the No. 6 seed, and a loss with a Packers win would cause them to fall to the No. 7 seed. No Rams are safe plays for Week 18 fantasy championships with this news.
San Francisco 49ers — Clinched NFC’s No. 1 Seed
The 49ers will probably play their starters for a few drives because they likely don’t want their key players taking two full weeks off from football. This makes it challenging to evaluate and project all their players. The one player we already know about is Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers ruled him out due to a calf injury.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -3
Game Total: 35.5
Kansas City Chiefs - Clinched AFC’s No. 3 Seed
The Kansas City Chiefs, who have no upward or downward mobility in the standings, will likely rest starters.
Los Angeles Chargers - Eliminated From Playoff Contention
Like prior weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers have minimal motivation. This week, Austin Ekeler’s playing time is a risky proposition, and we should not expect Keenan Allen back.
Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Bills -3
Game Total: 50
Buffalo Bills — 94 Percent Chance to Reach Playoffs
The Buffalo Bills will secure the No. 2 seed with a win. If the Steelers and Jaguars win earlier in the weekend and the Texans-Colts game doesn’t end in a tie, then the Bills will miss the playoffs with a loss.
This matchup against an injured Miami Dolphins team has significant playoff-seeding implications on the line, and the Dolphins just lost two key starters on defense — edge Bradley Chubb (ACL) and CB Xavien Howard (foot). All Bills offensive players are strong fantasy starts, and with a diminished Miami pass rush and secondary, the Bills’ passing game should thrive.
Miami Dolphins — Clinched Playoff Berth
The Dolphins secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win. A loss drops them to the No. 6 seed and a road game against the Chiefs.
We shouldn't expect Jaylen Waddle back until the playoffs, so this should be a hyper-consolidated and motivated offense. The Bills defense has struggled at times this season against opposing run games, and they’ll likely try to bracket Tyreek Hill all game.
