NFL Analysis
1/2/24
14 min read
NFL Week 18 Power Rankings: Bills Rise to No. 3, Eagles Tumble to No. 8
Every Tuesday, we’ll provide updated power rankings. The rankings will be driven by who the teams are at the moment. Those stances will be centered on every team’s talent, reliability and current level of success.
Betting markets will also influence our stances, as will each team’s path to contention within its conference. We’ll also be aware of each team’s looming schedule difficulty.
NFL Week 18 Power Rankings
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 1
Last Game: Ravens 56, Dolphins 19
The Baltimore Ravens have steamrolled two of the best teams in the league in the past two weeks. After shredding Miami, Lamar Jackson will likely be this year’s MVP and the Ravens have the league’s best defense.
They are the clear favorite to represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl. Baltimore has already clinched the top seed in the AFC, so it could rest starters in the regular-season finale.
>> READ: How Ravens Stack Up Among Past No. 1 Seeds
Next: vs. PIT (Saturday)
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 2
Last Game: 49ers 27, Commanders 10
It’s hard to complain about a 17-point win in the NFL, but the San Francisco 49ers didn’t play their best game in Washington.
Despite that, they clinched the top seed in the NFC and continue to have the league’s best roster. The 49ers could rest starters in the regular-season finale.
Next: vs. LAR
3. Buffalo Bills (10-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 4
Last Game: Bills 27, Patriots 21
The Buffalo Bills have won four in a row and five of their past six, including wins against the Chiefs and Cowboys. The Bills’ lone loss came by three points in overtime in Philadelphia. Outside of the clear two best teams in the league, Buffalo looks like the next most dangerous team.
The Bills head to Miami on Sunday night, and the winner will capture the AFC East crown. If Buffalo wins, it could finish the season as the AFC’s No. 2 seed. If it loses, it could miss the playoffs altogether.
Next: at MIA (SNF)
4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 5
Last Game: Cowboys 20, Lions 19
If the Dallas Cowboys win on Sunday, they will take home the NFC East crown and clinch the conference’s No. 2 seed. Dallas has won eight games by three scores or more, proving they have one of the league’s best rosters. However, its offense has become one-dimensional and is almost entirely reliant on QB Dak Prescott.
Additionally, the Cowboys have lost games to the 49ers, Bills, Dolphins and Eagles, making them 3-4 against top-10 teams. If Dallas is going to make a run, it needs to improve in several areas.
Next: at WAS
5. Miami Dolphins (11-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 3
Last Game: Ravens 56, Dolphins 19
The Miami Dolphins are a talented team that has struggled against premium opponents all season. That continued last week with a blowout loss to the Ravens with the AFC’s top seed on the line.
More concerning, injuries are starting to mount on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins have clinched a playoff berth, but the Bills could win the AFC East with a victory in Miami on Sunday night.
Next: vs. BUF (SNF)
6. Detroit Lions (11-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 7
Last Game: Cowboys 20, Lions 19
The Detroit Lions lost in Dallas last week, but that defeat did not come without controversy. It also came with an important positive: Detroit’s defense was shredded through the air, but it only gave up 20 points to a high-end offense. If the Lions are going to make any noise in the playoffs, their defense needs more outings like that.
Detroit probably will finish as the NFC’s No. 3 seed, because it will need Dallas to lose to Washington to move up. Dan Campbell has already said he will play his starters in Week 18.
Next: vs. MIN
7. Cleveland Browns (11-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 8
Last Game: Browns 37, Jets 20
Joe Flacco has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in four consecutive games, all Cleveland Browns victories. Cleveland is set as the AFC’s fifth seed, which means it could rest starters in Week 18.
Looking forward to the playoffs, the Browns’ defense is what makes them capable of beating premium opponents. In fact, Cleveland beat the Ravens and 49ers this season.
Next: at CIN
8. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 6
Last Game: Cardinals 35, Eagles 31
The Philadelphia Eagles still have one of the league’s best rosters, but their pass defense is a genuine liability. That group gave the Giants chances on Christmas, and that group is the primary reason the Cardinals upset the Eagles in Week 17.
Philadelphia has lost four of its last five, which includes lopsided losses to Dallas and San Francisco. Even if the Eagles beat the Giants for the second time in three weeks, Philadelphia needs the Cowboys to lose to win the division.
>> READ: Eagles Have a Defense Problem
Next: at NYG
9. Los Angeles Rams (9-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 9
Last Game: Rams 26, Giants 25
The Los Angeles Rams have won six of their past seven, and that lone loss came against on the road to the Ravens in overtime. The Giants gave Los Angeles a bit of a scare last week, but overall the Rams remain one of the hottest teams in the league.
Matthew Stafford’s offense has driven most of that success. The Rams clinched a playoff spot, so it’s now a question of whether they will face the NFC East winner or the Lions in the Wild Card round. Los Angeles would be a live underdog against Detroit because it has the better coach and quarterback.
Next: at SF
10. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 10
Last Game: Chiefs 25, Bengals 17
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-4 since their Week 10 bye, and their defense has outplayed their offense throughout the season.
RB Isiah Pacheco and rookie WR Rashee Rice both exceeded 100 yards against the Bengals last week. If the Chiefs are going to make any noise this postseason, Pacheco and Rice will need to be difference-makers.
The Chiefs won the AFC West but could play a road playoff game as early as the Divisional round. If they get that far.
Next: at LAC
11. Houston Texans (9-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 11
Last Game: Texans 26, Titans 3
C.J. Stroud returned to action last week after missing two games to spearhead a decisive win against Tennessee. As long as Stroud is available, the Houston Texans can give anyone a game.
Houston will face the Colts in what is essentially a win-and-in game. If Houston wins and the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the Texans win the AFC South. If Houston makes the playoffs, it instantly becomes a dangerous underdog.
Next: at IND (Saturday night)
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 14
Last Game: Jaguars 26, Panthers 0
C.J. Beathard and the Jacksonville Jaguars defense kept their playoff hopes alive last week with a shutout of the Panthers. That victory ended Jacksonville's four-game freefall, which opened the door for the Texans or Colts to potentially win the AFC South.
If the Jaguars beat the Titans this week, they win the division. If Jacksonville loses, they could miss the playoffs with a Steelers win.
Next: at TEN
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 15
Last Game: Steelers 30, Seahawks 23
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won two games while scoring 64 total points since Mason Rudolph took over at quarterback.
Mike Tomlin’s streak of winning seasons lives for another year, and Pittsburgh has a shot at the postseason. If Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, which could rest starters, and the Jaguars lose to the Titans, the Steelers are in.
Next: at BAL (Saturday)
14. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 17
Last Game: Colts 23, Raiders 20
Shane Steichen’s Indianapolis Colts continue to be the league’s most overachieving team. Indianapolis would make the playoffs if the season ended today.
If they beat Houston next Saturday, the Colts are in. If the Colts win and the Jaguars lose, Indianapolis would win the AFC South. Regardless of what happens in Week 18, it’s remarkable the Colts are in this position after going 4-12-1 last season.
Next: vs. HOU (Saturday night)
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 12
Last Game: Saints 23, Buccaneers 13
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could have wrapped up a division title last week. Instead, they played one of their most disappointing games of the season.
Baker Mayfield has been better than anyone could have hoped for this season, but most of his production last week came in garbage time. That said, Tampa Bay controls its destiny due to a common opponent tiebreaker vs. New Orleans. The Buccaneers face the worst team in the league in the season finale so the NFC South is still theirs to lose.
Next: at CAR
16. Green Bay Packers (8-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 22
Last Game: Packers 33, Vikings 10
The Green Bay Packers have had a roller coaster of a season. In recent weeks, they knocked off the Lions and Chiefs before losing to the Giants and Buccaneers. Then the Panthers, who have a bottom-five offense, took them to the brink in a 33-30 shootout.
Green Bay’s destruction of Minnesota in front of a national audience was encouraging, but the Vikings’ decision to start Jaren Hall was a late Christmas present for Green Bay.
Regardless, the Packers have scored 66 points in their past two games. Jordan Love also has a shot to finish the season with the most touchdown passes in the league. If the season ended today, the Packers would make the playoffs. Rival Chicago stands in their way on Sunday.
Next: vs. CHI
17. Chicago Bears (7-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 19
Last Game: Bears 37, Falcons 17
The Chicago Bears are the definition of a dangerous spoiler. They’ve had a top-10 caliber defense since Week 9 when they acquired EDGE Montez Sweat.
They’ve won five of their past seven games. In truth, they are two or three plays away from winning all seven, with narrow losses to the Lions and Browns during that stretch. Overall, the Bears continue to improve on both sides of the ball. Chicago could be higher on this list if it had a path to making the playoffs.
Next: at GB
18. New Orleans Saints (8-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 23
Last Game: Saints 23, Buccaneers 13
The inconsistent New Orleans Saints kept their season alive with a decisive victory against rival Tampa Bay last week. Unfortunately for the Saints, they need to beat the Falcons while the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers for the Saints to win the NFC South.
The Saints could still make the playoffs with a victory, but they will need Green Bay and Seattle to lose. Ultimately, New Orleans failed to take advantage of the league’s easiest schedule.
Next: vs. ATL
19. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 13
Last Game: Steelers 30, Seahawks 23
The Seattle Seahawks defense picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. Giving up at least 30 points to the 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys, Lions or Rams isn’t the goal, but it's understandable. Letting Mason Rudolph and the Steelers hit that mark could cost Seattle a playoff appearance.
On the bright side, Geno Smith played his best game since his Week 13 explosion in Dallas. If Seattle’s talented offense has a repeat performance against Arizona, they would need help, but they still have a path to making the playoffs.
Next: at ARI
20. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 16
Last Game: Chiefs 25, Bengals 17
Jake Browning has done a tremendous job keeping the Cincinnati Bengals a competitive 3-3 during his six starts. Every team Browning faced in that span has at least seven wins. Cincinnati overachieved during that stretch, where they were a few plays away from being 1-5.
The Bengals could finish with a winning record because the Browns are in a position to rest starters this week.
Next: vs. CLE
21. Las Vegas Raiders (7-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 20
Last Game: Colts 23, Raiders 20
The Las Vegas Raiders are 4-4 since Antonio Pierce took over as coach. Two of those losses came by three points. He accomplished that with rookie Aidan O’Connell as the Raiders’ starting quarterback.
Pierce’s defense has been among the league’s most overachieving units. It would be no surprise if the Raiders hired Pierce permanently.
Next: vs. DEN
22. Denver Broncos (8-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 18
Last Game: Broncos 16, Chargers 9
The Denver Broncos are 7-3 in their past 10 games, which is a big reason why their decision to bench Russell Wilson was controversial. Jarrett Stidham did enough for the Broncos’ defense to beat the Chargers last week, but that move will have long-term ramifications for this franchise.
Denver is in a strange position where it almost made the playoffs, yet the Broncos now look like a Day 1 rebuild heading into next offseason.
Next: at LV
23. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 21
Last Game: Packers 33, Vikings 10
The decision to start rookie QB Jaren Hall in primetime against rival Green Bay was perplexing. The disastrous result was not, sadly.
The Minnesota Vikings have lost five of their past six, freefalling out of the playoff picture. If Kirk Cousins hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8, Minnesota might have been playing for the division and Cousins might have been in the MVP conversation.
What this team does with Cousins will be one of the biggest topics of the offseason.
Next: at DET
24. Atlanta Falcons (7-9) 
Previous Rank: No. 24
Last Game: Bears 37, Falcons 17
The Atlanta Falcons’ seesaw season continued last week when they were blown out by the Bears in Chicago.
The Falcons have a volatile quarterback situation, but they have a playoff-caliber roster otherwise. A loss in New Orleans this week will give coach Arthur Smith three 7-10 seasons in a row.
Next: at NO
25. Arizona Cardinals (4-12) 
Previous Rank: No. 28
Last Game: Cardinals 35, Eagles 31
The Arizona Cardinals are 3-4 with Kyler Murray under center, and all four of those losses came to teams within the top 17 of this list.
Arizona does not have a complete roster, but it has two first-round picks in April’s draft, and Murray has been an MVP favorite in the past.
Next: vs. SEA
26. New York Giants (5-11) 
Previous Rank: No. 27
Last Game: Rams 26, Giants 25
The New York Giants were a long missed field goal away from upsetting the Rams last week. Tyrod Taylor made some exceptional downfield throws in that contest.
New York is well-coached, and it consistently plays with high effort. Expect more of the same in the finale against the Eagles.
Next: vs. PHI
27. Tennessee Titans (5-11) 
Previous Rank: No. 25
Last Game: Texans 26, Titans 3
The Tennessee Titans beat the Chargers with Justin Herbert, the Bengals with Joe Burrow and the Dolphins this season.
They failed to play spoiler last week against Houston, but the Titans owe the Jaguars one after last season’s primetime loss in Week 18. In many ways, the fate of the AFC South will be determined by Tennessee.
Next: vs. JAX
28. New York Jets (6-10) 
Previous Rank: No. 26
Last Game: Browns 37, Jets 20
During the past four weeks, the New York Jets’ defense has given up 28 or more points three times. The Jets’ offense has been unreliable all season, which makes their fading defensive prowess concerning.
Week 18 could be Bill Belichick’s last game as the Patriots' coach. Hopefully that results in increased effort from New York’s once high-end defense.
Next: at NE
29. New England Patriots (4-12) 
Previous Rank: No. 29
Last Game: Bills 27, Patriots 21
This could be the last game Bill Belichick coaches for the New England Patriots. New England is 2-2 in its past four while giving the Chiefs and Bills contested games.
Bailey Zappe’s offense is volatile, but New England’s defense continues to be a tough out. In some ways, it would be poetic if Belichick’s last game as the Patriots’ coach was a victory against the Jets.
Next: vs. NYJ
30. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11) 
Previous Rank: No. 30
Last Game: Broncos 16, Chargers 9
The Los Angeles Chargers are an unsurprising 0-3 with Easton Stick as their starting quarterback. After their embarrassing loss to the Raiders in Week 15, Los Angeles has given the Bills and Broncos competitive games.
Ultimately, the 2024 season can’t come soon enough for the Chargers.
Next: vs. KC
31. Washington Commanders (4-12) 
Previous Rank: 31
Last Game: 49ers 27, Commanders 10
The Washington Commanders have lost seven games in a row. The strength of their team, the defensive line, was broken up at the trade deadline. The Commanders will likely have a new coach and starting quarterback next season.
Next: vs. DAL
32. Carolina Panthers (2-14) 
Previous Rank: No. 32
Last Game: Jaguars 26, Panthers 0
The Carolina Panthers had a chance to get out of the power rankings’ basement last week, but they were shut out by Jacksonville. Not only that, but Carolina lost 26-0 to a team led by C.J. Beathard.
To make matters worse, last week’s loss secured the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft, which the Panthers traded to Chicago. Perhaps team owner David Tepper should have thrown that drink on himself.
Next: vs. TB
