Opening Spread: Patriots +1
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (21.25) Dolphins (22.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots +1
- This line has moved to Patriots -2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots -3
- This total opened at 43.5
- This total has moved to 42.5
Patriots: Questionable: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Damien Harris, WR DeVante Parker, WR Tyquan Thornton, TE Hunter Henry, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Jalen Mills.
Dolphins: Out: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Questionable: LT Terron Armstead, RT Brandon Shell, Edge Bradley Chubb, Edge Jaelan Philips, CB Xavien Howard, S Eric Rowe.
The Patriots Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
I have the Patriots offensive line tiered as a league average unit. I have the Dolphins defensive front tiered as a fringe top-10 unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 7-7-1 against the spread this season
- The Patriots are 6-9 on overs this season
- Mac Jones is 14-14-1 against the spread in his career
- Mac Jones is 13-16 on overs in his career
- Bill Belichick is 209-147-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- Bill Belichick is 186-177-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- The Patriots are scoring 21.2 points per game, which is 16th in the league
- New England is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing
- The Patriots are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Rhamondre Stevenson is 12th in the league in yards rushing with 944 and he’s seventh in yards receiving among running backs
- Jakobi Meyers has a 21.8% target share and a 31.3% air yards share
- Nelson Agholor has a 12.3% target share and a 17.6% air yards share
- DeVante Parker has an 11.2% target share and a 25.1% air yards share
- Tyquan Thornton has a 10.9% target share and an 18% air yards share
- Kendrick Bourne has a 9.8% target share and a 14.2% air yards share
- Hunter Henry has a 10.3% target share and a 10.6% air yards share
- The Dolphins have allowed 24.7 points per game, which is 27th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Miami has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the seventh-most to those in the slot
The Dolphins Offense vs. Patriots Defense
I have the Dolphins offensive line tired towards the back of league average. I have the Patriots defensive front tiered towards the front of league average. The Patriots’ defensive front has a mild trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 7-8 against the spread this season
- The Dolphins are 7-8 on overs this season
- Teddy Bridgewater is 51-26 against the spread in his career
- Teddy Bridgewater is 27-48-2 on overs in his career
- Mike McDaniel is 7-8 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Mike McDaniel is 7-8 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Dolphins are scoring 24.3 points per game, which is ninth in the league
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing
- The Dolphins are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Teddy Bridgewater likely gets the start at quarterback for Miami this week
- Per the Edge, against the Packers last week Raheem Mostert had eight carries and three targets while Jeff Wilson had nine carries and two targets
- Tyreek Hill is second in the league in receptions (113), second in yards receiving (1,632), 11th in receiving touchdowns (7), second in target share (32%), and fifth in air yards share (41.3%)
- Jaylen Waddle has 67 receptions for 1,260 yards receiving and 8 touchdowns. Waddle has a 21.5% target share with a 28.6% air yards share this season
- Mike Gesicki has one or fewer receptions in five straight games
- The Patriots have allowed 19.4 points per game, which is fifth in the league
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- New England has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Patriots have allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Dolphins beat the Patriots 20-7 in Miami on opening day. Both teams are in tailspins as the Patriots have lost four of their last five while the Dolphins have lost four in a row. Tagovailoa will miss this contest with a concussion, which makes Teddy Bridgewater Miami’s starter.
If You’re Betting on the Patriots
New England has lost four of their last five games, but two of those four came as one score losses against contenders in the Vikings and Bengals. The Patriots lost to the Bills during this span as well as the Raiders in one of the most dramatic and unexpected losses in recent memory. Despite their recent struggles the Patriots are still alive in the AFC Wild Card race. New England is highly motivated and among the most well-prepared teams in the league under Bill Belichick. The downgrade from Tagovailoa to Bridgewater is a benefit for any Dolphins opponent, but it’s very good news for New England as Tagovailoa is 4-0 against the Patriots.
A bet on the Patriots starts as a bet against Teddy Bridgewater in a high-pressure spot. The Patriots offense is your primary concern in this contest. New England’s offense has been uneven all season, most of their skill position players are on the injury report, and Miami’s defense has a higher ceiling now than they did on opening day. Ultimately if you are betting on New England, you are expecting a narrow victory against a more talented team with their backup quarterback.
If You’re Betting on the Dolphins
Teddy Bridgewater is a very good backup quarterback, but he’s 0-2 in games he started and finished this season. Bridgewater scored 15-points against the Bengals and 16 against the Vikings in those outings. A bet on the Dolphins always starts as a bet on their dynamic offense, but we have to lower the ceiling some here with Bridgewater at the helm. Then we have to lower it a little more considering that Bridgewater is up against a Bill Belichick defense. That means we have to rely more on Miami’s defense than we normally would as a Dolphins bettor. Considering that Miami hasn’t held an opponent below 20-points since late November against the Texans, a bet on the Dolphins is either a bet on Teddy Bridgewater or a spike week out of Miami’s defense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Tyreek Hill is a fading Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be Patriots heavy in winner pools in a 7-3 type of ratio. I will rank this game as low as I reasonably can in my confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I don’t have a lot of interest in betting on the Patriots side given all their injuries on offense. If Miami gets to +3 I may consider a play on them in that scenario.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33