Opening Spread: Giants -3
Opening Game Total: 40.5
Opening Team Totals: Giants (21.75) Colts (18.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants -3
- This line has moved to Giants -5.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants -6.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants -5.5
- This total opened at 40.5 points
- This total has moved to 38.5 points
Giants: Questionable: DL Leonard Williams, Edge Azeez Ojulari, CB Adoree’ Jackson.
Colts: Questionable: TE Kylen Granson, CB Kenny Moore.
The Giants Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Giants have a slightly below average offensive line. The Colts defensive front has improved as the season has progressed, to the point I now have them tiered as a league average unit. Indianapolis has a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 11-4 against the spread this season
- The Giants are 6-9 on overs this season
- Daniel Jones is 30-23 against the spread in his career
- Daniel Jones is 21-30-2 on overs in his career
- Brian Daboll is 11-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Brian Daboll is 6-9 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Giants are scoring 20.7 points per game, which is 20th in the league
- New York is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing
- The Giants are passing on 59% of their plays and running on 41% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Daniel Jones is fifth among quarterbacks with 617 yards rushing
- Daniel Jones breached 300 yards passing for the third time in three seasons last week against the Vikings
- Saquon Barkley is fourth in the league in yards rushing with 1,254 and he’s ninth in rushing touchdowns with 10. Barkley is 13th among running backs in yards receiving
- Darius Slayton has at least 58 yards receiving in eight of his 12 games this season
- Isaiah Hodgins has six or more targets in three of his last four games
- Richie James has 25 total targets over his last three games
- Daniel Bellinger has been held below 30 yards receiving in each of his last five games
- The Colts have allowed 23.8 points per game, which is 25th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 13th-most yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Indianapolis has given up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Colts have allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
The Colts Offense vs. Giants Defense
The Colts offensive line has been improving since Jeff Saturday took over. I now have them tiered towards the back of league average to slightly below average tier. I have the Giants as a top-10 caliber defensive front. The Giants have a moderate advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 6-9 against the spread this season
- The Colts are 5-10 on overs this season
- Nick Foles is 33-36-1 against the spread in his career
- Nick Foles is 34-35-1 on overs in his career
- Jeff Saturday is 2-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Jeff Saturday is 3-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Colts are scoring 16.5 points per game, which is 31st in the league
- Indianapolis is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing
- The Colts are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- After a brutal showing on Monday Night Football, Nick Foles is back at quarterback for the Colts
- Per the Edge, Zack Moss has been the Colts primary ball carrier in each of the last two games that Jonathan Taylor has been sidelined
- Michael Pittman has a 26.1% target share with a 28.3% air yards share
- Pittman has been held below 65 yards receiving in eight of his last nine games
- Parris Campbell has been held below 20 yards receiving in three of his last four games
- Alec Pierce has zero yards receiving in three of his last six games
- Colts tight end Jelani Woods has four or more targets in three of his last four games
- Per TruMedia, Michael Pittman has played 693 snaps on the perimeter and 194 in the slot
- The Giants have allowed 22.6 points per game, which is 20th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the third-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- New York has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- New York has given up the seventh-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers
- The Giants have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Colts have lost five straight since winning Jeff Saturday’s head coaching debut against the Raiders. Indianapolis is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The Giants punch their ticket to the postseason with a win.
If You’re Betting on the Giants
The Giants are 1-4-1 over their last six games, but they may have actually played their best game of that stretch in last week’s 27-24 loss in Minnesota. You’re not building any Giants bet around their offense, but you are expecting New York’s offense to limit turnovers while getting to at least 20 points. As limited as they are, the Giants have been very consistent at providing that type of offensive output this season. Considering that you need the Giants to win with some margin in order to cover this line, you may need a little more out of their offense in this matchup. A bet on the Giants should be built around their defensive front’s trench advantage against statuesque Foles. The Colts shift to Foles was a bizarre move, and Foles was horrendous against the Chargers last Monday night. The floor for this Colts offense is low, and you are primarily betting against that group as a Giants bettor.
If You’re Betting on the Colts
The Colts lines on both sides of the ball have improved under Jeff Saturday, but there is very little else to like about this team right now. Two weeks ago, the Colts gave up the biggest lead in NFL history. They followed that up with a change at quarterback to Foles, which resulted in a 20-3 home loss to the Chargers on Monday Night Football. If you are betting on the Colts, you are expecting a significantly better offensive performance from a backup quarterback, with limited weapons, that’s facing a disadvantage in the trenches. The Colts defense played relatively well against Justin Herbert’s Chargers last week, but they were destroyed by both the Vikings and Cowboys in the two previous weeks. I’d suggest that a bet on the Colts is more of a bet against the Giants being able to win by 6.5 points than it is on the Colts.
Awards Market Ramifications: Saquon Barkley is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Brian Daboll still has a path in the Coach of the Year race.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Giants in all of my winner pools, and I expect to be in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I don’t usually bet on teams in the Colts current position, but I have no enthusiasm in betting on the Giants to win by almost a full touchdown.
Survivor Pool: The Giants will be pretty chalky in survivor pools this week. I prefer to not bet on chalk, but the Giants are a perfectly reasonable option in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33