NFL Analysis
12/12/23
14 min read
NFL Week 15 Power Rankings: Cowboys Jump to No. 2 After Statement Win
Every Tuesday, we’ll provide updated power rankings. The rankings will be driven by who the teams are at the moment. Those stances will be centered on every team’s talent, reliability and current level of success.
Betting markets will also influence our stances, as will each team’s path to contention within its conference. We’ll also be aware of each team’s looming schedule difficulty.
NFL Week 15 Power Rankings
1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 1
Last Game: 49ers 28, Seahawks 16
Since their Week 9 bye, the San Francisco 49ers have won their past five games by at least two scores. Brock Purdy is among the favorites to win MVP, and he’s thrown for at least 296 yards in four of his last five games. Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards with 1,177.
The 49ers’ defense allows the fewest points per game with 15.8. San Francisco is the NFL’s most complete team, and you could argue it is the league’s best by a considerable margin.
Next: at ARZ, vs. BAL (MNF), at WASH, vs. LAR
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 4
Last Game: Cowboys 33, Eagles 13
The Dallas Cowboys made a statement against the Eagles on Sunday night. That was driven by QB Dak Prescott, who is the favorite in the MVP race. He’s in the top two in passing touchdowns, rating, QBR, total EPA and EPA per play. Those numbers, along with team success, are the most consistent factors among MVP winners for more than a decade.
Dallas leads the league in points per game (32.4), and it is fourth in points allowed per game (17.9). The Cowboys also have won a staggering eight games by at least three scores. The Cowboys are one contest into their toughest four-game stretch. If Dallas ends up as a Wild Card instead of the NFC East winner, that schedule stretch is the likely culprit.
Next: at BUF, at MIA, vs. DET (Saturday night), at WASH
3. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 3
Last Game: Ravens 37, Rams 31, OT
QB Lamar Jackson carried the Baltimore Ravens to victory against the Rams. What’s concerning is the Rams have a mediocre roster and the Ravens needed overtime to beat them. At this point, it’s debatable if this Ravens team is better than any of the others since Jackson took over as the starter.
Baltimore is about to enter its most difficult four-game stretch. The Ravens will face teams that sit on top of their divisions in each of the next three weeks.
Next: at JAX (SNF), at SF (MNF), vs. MIA, vs. PIT
4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) 
Previous Rank: No. 2
Last Game: Cowboys 33, Eagles 13
There’s no shame in losing to the 49ers and Cowboys in back-to-back weeks. We have those two teams on top of our power rankings for a reason. That said, the Philadelphia Eagles lost those games by a combined 75-32.
Jalen Hurts’ offense has the talent to bounce back in a big way. However, the Eagles’ secondary is their big weakness. After these two blowout losses, there’s little reason to count on that group getting significantly better.
If the Eagles win in Seattle on Monday night, they will be in an excellent position to finish with a 14-3 record.
Next: at SEA, vs. NYG, vs. ARZ, at NYG
5. Miami Dolphins (9-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 5
Last Game: Titans 28, Dolphins 27
The Miami Dolphins suffered a bizarre loss to Tennessee on Monday night, bringing their three-game winning streak to a close. Injuries played a role in that defeat, but ultimately, Miami blew a 14-point lead with less than three minutes to go.
After this week’s matchup with the Jets, the Dolphins close the season against three top-10 teams. The only reason the Dolphins didn’t slide in our rankings is because five teams in last week’s top 10 lost last week.
Next: vs. NYJ, vs. DAL, at BAL, vs. BUF
6. Buffalo Bills (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 10
Last Game: Bills 20, Chiefs 17
The Buffalo Bills have a long way to go to punch their ticket to the postseason, but they took a big step in the right direction with a Week 14 win in Arrowhead.
Despite the Bills’ mediocre record, all six of their losses have been by six points or fewer. Four of their wins have come by at least three scores. In essence, the Bills are better than their record indicates. The Bills face two top-five teams down the stretch. They’ll likely need to beat at least one of them to have a chance of making the playoffs.
Next: vs. DAL, at LAC (Saturday night), vs. NE, at MIA
7. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 7
Last Game: Bills 20, Chiefs 17
The Kansas City Chiefs have lost three of their last four, including the past two games. They’ve scored fewer than 20 points in all three of those losses. These things have simply not happened before during the Patrick Mahomes era.
Thankfully, the Chiefs face three sub-.500 teams down the stretch. Ideally, Kansas City’s offense will get back on track before the postseason. Unfortunately, that seems less likely to happen with each passing week.
Next: at NE (MNF), vs. LV, vs. CIN, at LAC
8. Detroit Lions (9-4) 
Previous Rank: No. 6
Last Game: Bears 28, Lions 13
The Detroit Lions have lost two of their last three, while their defense has allowed at least 26 points in their past five games. What’s more concerning is the Bears dominated the Lions last week, as they did for 58 minutes of their Week 11 matchup.
All of a sudden Detroit finishes the season with four games against teams with winning records. None of these matchups are easy outs for a Lions team that hasn’t impressed since their Week 9 bye. Detroit has an inflated record while going just 2-2 against teams with winning records.
Next: vs. DEN, at MIN, at DAL (Saturday night), vs. MIN
9. Denver Broncos (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 14
Last Game: Broncos 24, Chargers 7
The Denver Broncos have won six of their last seven with impressive victories against the Bills, Chiefs and Browns. The Broncos gave up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3, which has skewed most of their defensive metrics. If you remove that game, Denver is giving up 19.9 points per game, which would be sixth-best in the league.
Denver is a much different team today than it was in Week 3. Ultimately, the Broncos have a top-10 caliber defense while QB Russell Wilson makes Denver dangerous against anyone. The Broncos close out the season with three games against sub-.500 teams. A 10-7 record is achievable for the surging Broncos.
Next: at DET, vs. NE, vs. LAC, at LV
10. Cleveland Browns (8-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 16
Last Game: Browns 31, Jaguars 27
In the year of the backup quarterback, Joe Flacco may end up saving the Cleveland Browns’ season. Flacco threw for 311 yards during Cleveland’s victory against the Jaguars. Don’t expect that to be the new norm, but at least Cleveland isn’t drawing dead if it falls behind with Flacco.
That said, Cleveland’s defense has allowed 92 points in its past three games. If the Browns are going to make a playoff push, their once-dominant defense needs to return to form. Cleveland finishes the season with a manageable schedule, where it could reach 10 or 11 wins.
Next: vs. CHI, at HOU, vs. NYJ (TNF), at CIN
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) 
Previous Rank: No. 8
Last Game: Browns 31, Jaguars 27
The Jacksonville Jaguars are falling on hard times, losing two in a row and three of their past five. Jacksonville’s defense has been horrifyingly ineffective in the past two games. It has allowed 65 total points along with 300-yard passing games to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. On top of that, QB Trevor Lawrence is playing through an ankle sprain.
The Jaguars still control their destiny in the AFC South race, but they need to improve across the board. This week’s primetime matchup against the Ravens will be a major test.
Next: vs. BAL (SNF), at TB, vs. CAR, at TEN
12. Los Angeles Rams (6-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 13
Last Game: Ravens 37, Rams 31, OT
Matthew Stafford and his offense took the Ravens to the brink in Baltimore last week. Not only has Stafford played extremely well, but the Los Angeles Rams’ running game is 12th best in yards per game.
Unfortunately, the Rams' defense continues to be a weakness, one that cost them last week in Baltimore. Los Angeles has three winnable games coming up before it heads to San Francisco for the season finale.
Next: vs. WASH, vs. NO (TNF), at NYG, at SF
13. Houston Texans (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 9
Last Game: Jets 30, Texans 6
The Jets’ defense was a tough matchup for the Houston Texans, especially when you factor in the windy and rainy game environment. A bad game against an elite defense isn’t a reason to panic.
However, QB C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol while wide receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins are sidelined because of injuries. Even if Stroud plays this week, he’ll be without his two best weapons. If he doesn’t, Houston is an entirely different team with Davis Mills under center.
Next: at TEN, vs. CLE, vs. TEN, at IND
14. Green Bay Packers (6-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 11
Last Game: Giants 24, Packers 22
After beating the Lions and Chiefs in front of a national audience, the Green Bay Packers lost to Tommy DeVito’s Giants on Monday Night Football.
Jordan Love’s offense was mediocre, which is what it's been for most of the season. That said, Love directed a late scoring drive to take a one-point lead.
Green Bay’s defense, which has driven most of its success, gave up a winning field goal as time expired. These types of peaks and valleys are the mark of a volatile team, which is exactly what Green Bay is. The Packers have four winnable games to finish this season.
Next: vs. TB, at CAR, at MIN (SNF), vs. CHI
15. Seattle Seahawks (6-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 15
Last Game: 49ers 28, Seahawks 16
There is one game left in the Seattle Seahawks' brutal four-game stretch that includes games against the NFC’s three best teams. We anticipated a slide from 6-3 to 7-7, if not 6-8, heading into Week 11’s contest with the Rams.
On the other side of the upcoming matchup with Philadelphia, Seattle has three winnable games to close out the season. The Seahawks may need to win all of them to make the playoffs in an increasingly competitive NFC.
Next: vs. PHI, at TEN, vs. PIT, at ARZ
16. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 23
Last Game: Bengals 34, Colts 14
No one could have expected more from Jake Browning in the past two weeks. Those wins have kept the Cincinnati Bengals alive in the AFC Wild Card race.
That said, 126 of Browning’s 275 passing yards on Sunday came via short passes to running backs Joe Mixon and Chase Brown. Don’t expect Browning's production in the past two weeks to be the norm for the Bengals offense.
Cincinnati closes out the season against four teams with winning records, but its next two matchups are winnable.
Next: vs. MIN, at PIT, at KC, vs. SEA
17. Indianapolis Colts (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 12
Last Game: Bengals 34, Colts 14
The Indianapolis Colts were the league’s most overachieving team through the first 13 weeks. Last week was a trip back to reality for Indianapolis as it was blown out by Jake Browning’s Bengals.
One loss isn’t a reason for panic, especially with very winnable games during the next three weeks. That said, no team should be considered an easy out for Indianapolis.
Next: vs. PIT, at ATL, vs. LV, vs. HOU
18. Minnesota Vikings (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 19
Last Game: Vikings 3, Raiders 0
You don’t see a lot of 3-0 games in the NFL, especially when they are played indoors. The Minnesota Vikings’ defense is fifth-best in points allowed per game. That is an astounding accomplishment from Brian Flores in his first year as the team’s defensive coordinator.
Unfortunately, Minnesota’s offense has been nearly non-existent in its past two games. Justin Jefferson is hurt again, and Josh Dobbs was benched for Nick Mullens last week. Improbably, the Vikings are a team whose success is almost entirely reliant on their defense.
Next: at CIN, vs. DET, vs. GB, at DET
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) 
Previous Rank: No. 18
Last Game: Patriots 21, Steelers 18
Last Thursday night’s loss to the Patriots could cost the Pittsburgh Steelers a trip to the playoffs.
Pittsburgh’s defense remains stout, but its offense continues to underwhelm. There is little reason to believe that will improve with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. Pittsburgh faces four competitive teams down the stretch, putting Mike Tomlin's consecutive winning season streak in danger.
Next: at IND, vs. CIN, at SEA, at BAL
20. Chicago Bears (5-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 22
Last Game: Bears 28, Lions 13
The Chicago Bears have been trending up for a while now, winning three of their past four. Perhaps more impressive is that Chicago has played 120 minutes against Detroit, and dominated for 118 of them.
Justin Fields increases the ceiling of this offense, while the Bears defense has given up 13 points or fewer in each of its past three wins. Chicago will be a dangerous spoiler down the stretch.
Next: at CLE, vs. ARZ, vs. ATL, at GB
21. New Orleans Saints (6-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 21
Last Game: Saints 28, Panthers 6
The New Orleans Saints defense enjoyed a get-well game against the league’s worst team on Sunday. The score was a little misleading because Derek Carr only had 119 yards passing.
The Saints have the best roster in the NFC South, but they sit in a three-way tie at 6-7. The Saints have four winnable games left on their schedule, including matchups against the Falcons and Buccaneers to close out the season. New Orleans still controls its destiny in the NFC South race.
Next: vs. NYG, at LAR (TNF), at TB, vs. ATL
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 25
Last Game: Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers simply will not go away, having beaten the Saints and Falcons on the road to stay alive in the AFC South.
Rashaad White carried the offense against Atlanta and has run for more than 100 yards in two of his last three games. That’s important because QB Baker Mayfield has carried this offense most weeks, which isn’t in his wheelhouse.
If the Buccaneers continue to march out a more balanced offense, they can win this division. Tampa Bay has a more difficult end-of-season schedule than the Saints or Falcons.
Next: at GB, vs. JAX, vs. NO, at CAR
23. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) 
Previous Rank: No. 17
Last Game: Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25
The Atlanta Falcons controlled their destiny in the NFC South heading into Week 14, but they lost to the Buccaneers at home.
What’s worse is Desmond Ridder threw for 347 yards and Atlanta still lost. No team in the NFC South is reliable, but the Falcons surrendered a big opportunity last week.
Next: at CAR, vs. IND, at CHI, at NO
24. Tennessee Titans (5-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 26
Last Game: Titans 28, Dolphins 27
The Tennessee Titans went into Miami and beat the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs. QB Will Levis had his best game since his NFL debut, particularly late when Tennessee was in full comeback mode.
Miami's injuries contributed to that improbable win, but you have to give the Titans credit. If C.J. Stroud misses next week's contest, Tennessee could win two games in a row.
Next: vs. HOU, vs. SEA, at HOU, vs. JAX
25. Las Vegas Raiders (5-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 24
Last Game: Vikings 3, Raiders 0
The Las Vegas Raiders were shut out at home by the Vikings. Nothing more needs to be said about QB Aidan O’Connell’s offense than that.
However, the Raiders’ defense has consistently overachieved since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach in Week 9. With Justin Herbert trending toward missing Thursday night's game, the Raiders are the favorite in that contest. If Las Vegas doesn’t win that matchup, it is in danger of losing out through the rest of the season.
Next: vs. LAC (TNF), at KC, at IND, vs. DEN
26. New York Giants (5-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 28
Last Game: Giants 24, Packers 22
QB Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants have won three straight and have a narrow path to the NFC’s seventh seed. That would have been unthinkable a month ago.
New York’s defense continues to keep this team competitive despite being backed by one of the league’s most ineffective offenses. New York’s remaining schedule is filled with teams that are in the thick of the NFC playoff race.
Next: at NO, at PHI, vs. LAR, vs. PHI
27. New York Jets (5-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 30
Last Game: Jets 30, Texans 6
The New York Jets’ defense beat up a pass-centric dome team in a windy, rainy game at MetLife Stadium last week. That’s not a major surprise, but Zach Wilson throwing for more than 300 yards in that same environment is.
We shouldn’t expect the Jets’ offensive performance against Houston to be the new norm, but it is encouraging.
Next: at MIA, vs. WASH, at CLE (TNF), at NE
28. Los Angeles Chargers (5-8) 
Previous Rank: No. 20
Last Game: Broncos 24, Chargers 7
The Los Angeles Chargers were already among the league’s most disappointing teams, and now QB Justin Herbert could miss time. Even with Herbert, expect the Chargers to be underdogs in their final three games.
Next: at LV (TNF), vs. BUF (Saturday night), at DEN, vs. KC
29. Arizona Cardinals (3-10) 
Previous Rank: No. 27
Last Game: Idle
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off their bye after decisively beating the Steelers in Week 13. Physicality in the trenches has been the driving force behind Arizona’s wins against the Steelers and Cowboys.
QB Kyler Murray makes the Cardinals more dangerous against anyone, but Arizona has uphill battles against the 49ers and Eagles in the coming weeks. None of the Cardinals' remaining games are cakewalks.
Next: vs. SF, at CHI, at PHI, vs. SEA
30. Washington Commanders (4-9) 
Previous Rank: 29
Last Game: Idle
The Washington Commanders desperately needed their bye week after losing to the Dolphins and Cowboys by a combined score of 90-25.
The Commanders have the league’s worst pass defense, which will be a real problem against the Rams, 49ers and Cowboys.
Next: at LAR, at NYJ, vs. SF, vs. DAL
31. New England Patriots (3-10) 
Previous Rank: No. 31
Last Game: Patriots 21, Steelers 18
Bailey Zappe got off to a hot start last Thursday night, which was enough for the New England Patriots to steal a win in Pittsburgh. That was the first time since Week 7 that the Patriots scored more than 20 points.
New England’s defense has been consistent over the last month and a half, but its offense still can’t be counted on.
Next: vs. KC, at DEN, at BUF, vs. NYJ
32. Carolina Panthers (1-12) 
Previous Rank: No. 32
Last Game: Saints 28, Panthers 6
It appears that former head coach Frank Reich wasn’t the reason the Carolina Panthers have a non-functioning offense.
The Panthers face four teams that are alive in the NFC playoff picture. It’s hard to envision Carolina beating any highly motivated team.
Next: vs. ATL, vs. GB, at JAX, vs. TB
