Analysis
12/7/22
3 min read
NFL Week 14 Underdog TNF High/Low Player Picks for Raiders vs. Rams
A rough Sunday saw our plays go 2-4, and I definitely should have been more confident on the Mike White higher than 33.5 passing attempts pick. That brings our season total to 75-69-2. This Thursday night, we get a Rams team that has lost almost all of their star players to injury, and because of that, there are a limited number of player entries posted so far. The Rams also claimed Baker Mayfield on Tuesday, but it's unclear if he'll play against the Raiders.
I did find two picks I like for this Thursday Night matchup. It is hard to have much confidence in any Rams player right now, but I think I found one Rams bet I am at least confident enough to place into my entries.
Van Jefferson HIGHER than 39.5 Receiving Yards
Since Cooper Kupp's injury in Week 10, Van Jefferson has led the Rams in routes run, targets and air yards. The Raiders' defense has struggled even during their three-game winning streak. They've given up the third-most passing yards per game during their winning streak. Even with the incompetence of the Rams' offense since Matthew Stafford's injury, I still have confidence in their top receiver against the terrible Raiders' pass defense. I can't pick this with full confidence, but I rate it a 3/5 and would play it to 42.5 receiving yards.
Derek Carr HIGHER than 252.5 Passing Yards
This Rams team is far removed from the Super Bowl winning version from just less than a year ago. The Rams' defense has been terrible this season, but they've managed to stop the run well enough. They've given up the fourth-most passing yards per game during the past four weeks, but have allowed the fifth-fewest yards rushing during the last five weeks. Even with Jalen Ramsey playing in the secondary, this defense has turned into one that forces teams to pass against them.
The Raider's offense started clicking the past few weeks, leading to their first winning streak of the season. During their three-game win streak, Derek Carr has averaged 284 passing yards per game, including 307 passing yards against the Broncos' elite pass defense. With the Rams' rush defense encouraging the Raiders to pass the ball, I see Carr easily getting more than 252.5 passing yards against te same defense that just allowed Geno Smith to pass for 367 passing yards. I give this a confidence rating of 5/5 and would play it to 269.5 passing yards.
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