Analysis

11/23/22

9 min read

NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions Patriots vs. Vikings

Patriots vs. Vikings

Patriots (6-4) at Vikings (8-2)

Opening Spread: Vikings -3

Opening Game Total: 42.5

Opening Team Totals: Vikings (22.75), Patriots (19.75)

Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Vikings -3
  • This line has moved down to Vikings -2.5
  • This total opened at 42.5 points
  • This total remains at 42.5 points

Vikings Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw has been ruled out for this contest. This pushes the Vikings' fringe top-10 line toward average to the below-average territory. The Patriots have a fringe top-10 defensive front, headlined by the NFLā€™s sack leader Matthew Judon. New England has a slight macro advantage in the trenches, while Judon has a significant individual advantage against Minnesotaā€™s reduced edge protection.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Vikings are 4-5-1 against the spread this season.
  • Minnesota is 5-5 on overs this season.
  • Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is 67-66-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Cousins is 78-56-1 on overs in his career.
  • Vikings coach Kevin Oā€™Connell is 4-5-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
  • Oā€™Connell is 5-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Vikings Offense

  • Minnesota is scoring 22.9 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
  • The Vikings are seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook is sixth in the league in yards rushing with 799. Cook has breached 100 yards rushing in two of his 10 games this season, but heā€™s breached 90 in five games. Cook has five or more targets in three of his last four games.
  • Justin Jefferson is fourth in the league in receptions (72), second in yards receiving (1093), ninth in target share (28.4%) and eighth in air yards share (40.8%).
  • Adam Thielen has seven or more targets in eight of his last nine games. Thielen has yet to breach 75 yards receiving in a game this season. Thielen has an 18.9% target share and a 28.9% air yards share.
  • K.J. Osborn has a 13.1% target share with a 15% air yards share.
  • In his three games as a Viking, T.J. Hockenson has 28 targets.

Patriots Defense

  • New England has allowed 16.9 points per game, which is second in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • New England has given up the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Patriots have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • New England has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.Ā 

Ā Patriots Offense vs. Vikings Defense

At full strength, the Patriots have a top-10-level offensive line. Patriots center David Andrews is considered doubtful for this contest. If Andrews misses this contest as expected, that pushes the Patriots' offensive line into the teens. At full strength, the Vikings have a fringe top-10 front. Right now, DT Dalvin Tomlinson and Edge Zaā€™Darius Smith have some injury uncertainty.

If those players are out, this trench matchup becomes more of a draw. If Andrews misses the game for New England while Minnesotaā€™s front enters this game at full strength, the Vikings will have a moderate advantage in the trenches.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Patriots are 6-3-1 against the spread this season.
  • New England is 4-6 on overs this season.
  • Patriots QB Mac Jones is 13-10-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Jones is 11-13 on overs in his career.
  • Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 208-143-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Bill Belichick is 184-174-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Patriots Offense

  • New England is scoring 21.3 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
  • The Patriots are 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Jones has struggled this season with a four-to-seven touchdown to interception ratio. That said, Jones had an 85.2% completion percentage against a stingy Jets defense last week.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has double-digit carries in each of his last eight games, with 15 or more in five of his previous six. Stevenson has five or more targets in each of his last five games and seven of his last eight contests.
  • In his first game action since October 30th, Damien Harris returned against the Jets last week with 65 yards rushing on eight carries.
  • Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots in target share (24.6%) and air yards share (33.9%).
  • DeVante Parker is second among Patriots WRs in snaps and routes run. Parker has an 11.8% target share and a 26.5% air yards share.
  • Nelson Agholor, Kendrick BourneĀ and Tyquan Thornton each have between 126 and 133 routes run.
  • Hunter Henry has a 10.2% target share, and Jonnu Smith has a 10.3% target share. Last week, Henry played 49 snaps and ran 19 routes, and Smith played 33 snaps and ran nine routes.
  • Per TruMedia, Meyers has played 166 snaps on the perimeter and 242 in the slot.
  • Parker has played 327 snaps on the perimeter and 39 in the slot.
  • Thornton has played 174 snaps on the perimeter and 26 in the slot.
  • Agholor has played 160 snaps on the perimeter and 69 in the slot.
  • Bourne has played 145 snaps on the perimeter and 79 in the slot.

Vikings Defense

  • Minnesota has allowed 23.1 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Minnesota has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Vikings have given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the eighth-most to slot receivers.
  • Minnesota has allowed the 16th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

This Is What Youā€™re Betting On in Patriots vs. Vikings

The Thanksgiving Slate is being released before injuries, and tournament lines are released. On the Minnesota side, Darrisaw has been ruled out, while Tomlinson and Smith have some injury uncertainty. On the New England side, Andrews is considered doubtful, while Parker and LG Isaiah Wynn have some injury uncertainty.

The Cowboys completely blew out Minnesota last week. The Patriots came away with a last-second victory off a punt returned for a touchdown in a tie game with under half a minute to play. A talented home team in an obvious correction spot against an opponent coming off an emotional victory the previous week is the kind of spot I like to bet on.

A bet on the Vikings is a bet on a talented team coming off an absolute bludgeoning last week. We can reasonably expect Minnesota to put forth a better effort this week. The Vikings also have a better roster than the Patriots. Their defensive line and skill position groups have talent advantages against New England. That said, I have several concerns with a Vikings bet.

The first is youā€™re betting against Belichick. While thatā€™s a little easier to do on the short week, as he has three fewer days to prepare, Belichick has been giving the Patriots a strategic edge virtually every week since the turn of the century. Second, you're betting on Cousins in a primetime game against Belichick. My third concern is Judon is one of the NFLā€™s best edge rushers, and the Vikings will be without Darrisaw.

The fourth is Iā€™m not entirely sure how Oā€™Connell and his staff will approach this game. I am fairly confident Jefferson will be the player Belichick goes out of his way to throw different looks at. This contest will influence my stance on Oā€™Connell and his staff for betting purposes far more than any other this season. The Vikings have the tools to overcome these deficits, but Minnesota has some clear paths to failure despite having the better roster.

A bet on the Patriots is always a bet on Belichick providing his team with a strategic edge. New Englandā€™s defensive front will have an advantage in this contest, but thatā€™s the only area New England has a clear talent edge against Minnesota. The Patriots will likely be down their center, reducing their best offensive unit.

The Vikings' secondary could be exploited by an offense with a dynamic group of pass catchers, like the Bengals or the Eagles as examples, but New England does not have that tool in the box. If youā€™re betting on the Patriots, you are primarily betting on Belichickā€™s defense against Cousinsā€™ offense in a primetime spot. Youā€™ll also need Jones to play a clean game against a Vikings' pass rush that could give New England some trouble.

Per TruMedia, during the last 157 games played on Thursday night, home teams are 83-70-4 ATS during that span. On average, home teams have covered by just shy of one point while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points during this sample. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.

Awards Market Ramifications: Oā€™Connell is a Coach of the Year candidate, while Belichick could find himself in that conversation again with a win here. Jefferson is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.

Winner/Confidence Pool: Since I play in a number of winner pools, I will play New England in a couple just to have some different lineups, but I will primarily play Minnesota in that format. I expect to be right around consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: Iā€™m not going to bet on this game directly, but in ATS pools where I pick every game, I will take Vikings -2.5.

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryanā€™s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 35-20

Props 2022: 36-21

WATCH MORE: Vikings' Loss to Cowboys Is a One-Off.


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