Betting
10/7/22
6 min read
Matchups Week 5: Packers vs. Giants
London: Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. New York Giants (3-1)
Opening Spread: Packers -8
Opening Game Total: 41.5
Team Totals: Packers (24.75), Giants (16.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Packers -8.
- This line moved slightly down to Packers -7.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Packers -8.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Packers -8.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total remains at 41.5 points as of Friday afternoon.
Notable Injuries
Packers: Questionable: DL Devonte Wyatt, S Adrian Amos.
Giants: Out: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Kadarius Toney, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, EDGE Azeez Ojulari; Questionable: Leonard Williams.
The Packers Offense vs. Giants Defense
At full strength, the Giants have a fringe top-ten front four. With EDGE Azeez Ojulari sidelined and Leonard Williams still on the injury report, the Packers' top-10 offensive line could have a moderate trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Packers are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 1-3 on overs this season.
Packers Offense
- The Packers are scoring 18.8 points per game, good for 21st in the league.
- Green Bay is 19th in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, among running backs, Aaron Jones is seventh in yards rushing and 19th in yards receiving. A.J. Dillon is 22nd in yards rushing and 25th in yards receiving.
- Per the Edge, Allen Lazard (18.9% target share, 37.6% air yards share) and Romeo Doubs (19.2% target share, 19.6% air yards share) have the biggest roles of the Packers' wide receiver group.
- Robert Tonyan has a 12.8% target share.
Giants Defense
- The Giants have allowed 17.8 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing and the 17th-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- New York has allowed the fourth-fewest yards receiving on the second-fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Keep in mind the Giants have faced the Titans, Panthers, Bears, and Cooper Rush’s Cowboys.
- New York has given up the 20th-most yards receiving on the 19th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
The Giants Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Giants did an excellent job of manufacturing completions for Daniel Jones last week by moving him outside the pocket multiple times. That said, the Giants have a below-average offensive line, and they’ll be facing a top-10 caliber Green Bay front. The Packers' pass rush has a significant advantage in the trenches against New York.
New York has a replacement level band of pass catchers in this contest. This same group created little to no separation against the Bears last week. Green Bay has a top-tier secondary. Pairing the Packers' trench advantage with their coverage advantage, the Giants are going to have to get creative with their passing attack to not get completely shut down in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Giants are 3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 1-3 on overs this season.
Giants Offense
- The Giants are scoring 19 points per game, good for 18th in the league.
- New York is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Saquon Barkley leads the league in yards rushing (463), and he’s 11th among running backs in yards receiving (107).
- Saquon Barkley is the Giants offense through the first four weeks.
- Richie James leads the Giants in yards receiving with 155 yards. That’s 72nd in the league.
- I saw the Giants live last week, and Darius Slayton is the only member of their currently available group of wide receivers that has any chance of creating separation.
- Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger has 79 yards receiving on the year.
Packers Defense
- The Packers have allowed 17.3 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing and the eighth-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has allowed the eighth-fewest yards receiving on the 12th-fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the sixth-fewest yards receiving on the fourth-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Packers vs. Giants
A bet on the Packers is a bet on a very talented Packers' defense facing a Giants' offense that is entirely reliant on running back Saquon Barkley. The Packers have a significant trench advantage and a significant coverage advantage against the Giants. Those advantages could reasonably allow Green Bay to overcommit to limiting Saquon Barkley. If that happens, I don’t have a good answer to the question “How do the Giants generate offense” in this matchup. That’s the primary reason I’m interested in Green Bay here.
The second is that you get Aaron Rodgers, the Packers' top-10 offensive line, and their top-tier running back duo. Green Bay is thin at wide receiver, but the rest of this roster is excellent. My biggest concerns with a Packers bet are that they are coming off an overtime game last week and the trip to London is a form of variance I try to avoid.
A bet on the Giants is a bet on a well-coached, high-effort team facing their first title contender of the season. New York marches out a below-average offensive line and the worst collection of pass catchers in recent memory. I am very concerned about the Giants' ability to generate an even mildly effective offense in this matchup. Green Bay is a top-10 defense at every position group. On top of that, you also have Aaron Rodgers on the other side. There are far more concerns than realistic paths to success for New York here.
Awards Market Ramifications: Aaron Rodgers is an MVP candidate. Saquon Barkley is the Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Brian Daboll is a Coach of the Year candidate. Packers edge Rashaan Gary is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will be taking the Packers in my winner pools, and I’ll be ranking them within the top three in all of my confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I’m a little concerned that Green Bay is coming off an overtime game in New England last week. I also prefer to avoid the variance of games played in Europe. That said, from a football stance I can get to a dominant Green Bay win on a number of fronts.
Survivor Pool: There’s a pretty good chance that you’ve already used the Packers in your survivor pool entry. If you haven’t, I’d rank them third this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Is a Big Game Coming from Aaron Rodgers vs. New York?
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