Betting
10/8/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 5: Lions at Patriots
Detroit Lions (1-3) at New England Patriots (1-3)
Opening Spread: Patriots -3
Opening Game Total: 47
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (25), Lions (22)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots -3.
- This line has moved to Patriots -3.5 as of Saturday morning.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots -3.5.
- This total opened at 47.
- This total has moved down to 45.5.
Notable Injuries
Patriots: IR: QB Brian Hoyer; Out: DL Lawrence Guy; Doubtful: QB Mac Jones, TE Jonnu Smith; Questionable: WR Jakobi Meyers, RT Isaiah Wynn, S Kyle Dugger, CB Jalen Mills
Lions: Out: RB D’Andre Swift, FB Jason Cabinda, WR D.J. Chark, WR Jameson Williams, Edge Charles Harris; Questionable: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR Josh Reynolds, LG Jonah Jackson, LB Chris Board
The Patriots Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Patriots have a top-ten caliber offensive line. Detroit has a below-average front four. New England has a significant advantage in the trenches in this matchup, particularly in the running game.
Betting Notes
- The Patriots are 1-2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 2-2 on overs this season.
Patriots Offense
- The Patriots are scoring 18.5 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- New England is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Damien Harris is 17th among running backs in yards rushing (246) with a modest 7.8% target share.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is 22nd among running backs in yards rushing (211) with a 12.1% target share.
- Harris has six redzone carries to Stevenson’s three.
- Jakobi Meyers has seen 19 targets on just 63 routes. Meyers has seen 49 snaps on the perimeter and 53 in the slot.
- Nelson Agholor has a 15.5% target share and a 22.4% air yards share. Agholor has played 89 snaps on the perimeter and 59 in the slot.
- Devante Parker has a 13.8% target share and a 27.8% air yards share. Parker has played 195 snaps on the perimeter and 26 in the slot.
- Hunter Henry only has nine targets on the season. However, with Jonnu Smith doubtful, Henry could see some role expansion in a plus matchup this week.
Lions Defense
- The Lions have allowed 35.3 points per game, which is worst in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the sixth-most yards rushing and the 16th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Detroit has given up the fifth-most yards receiving on the seventh-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Lions have given up the seventh-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this season.
- The Lions have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving on the sixth-most receptions to tight ends this year.
- The Lions have given up the third-most PPR points to in-line tight ends this season.
The Lions Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Lions have a premium offensive line, while New England has a below-average front four. Detroit has a significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes
- The Lions are 3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are on 4-0 overs this season.
Lions Offense
- The Lions are scoring 35 points per game, which is tops in the league.
- Detroit is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, D’Andre Swift is 18th among running backs in yards rushing with 231 yards. Jamaal Williams is 13th, with 276 yards. Swift missed Week 4, and he’ll miss this contest.
- Williams is second in the league in red zone carries (15) and first in rushing touchdowns with six. Williams only has eight targets through the first four games.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has 33 targets on 101 routes. St. Brown has played 65 snaps on the perimeter and 97 in the slot.
- Josh Reynolds has breached 80 yards receiving, six receptions, and eight targets in each of the last two games.
- After a quiet first three games T.J. Hockenson exploded last week for eight receptions on 12 targets for 179 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Hockenson has played 121 snaps as an in-line tight end, 44 on the perimeter, and 63 in the slot.
Patriots Defense
- The Patriots have allowed 24.5 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing and the 13th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- New England has given up the 20th-most yards receiving on the 23rd-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- The Patriots have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving on the 16th-most receptions to tight ends this season.
- New England has given up the fourth-most PPR points to in-line tight ends and the eighth-most to tight ends in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Patriots vs. Lions
A bet on the Patriots begins as a bet on Bill Belichick’s opponent-specific game planning. Jared Goff is 1-2 against the Patriots in his career, scoring ten and three points in those two losses. If you’re considering a bet on New England, you’re betting on Belichick’s defense holding the league’s best-scoring offense below expectations this week. Given the litany of injuries the Lions are dealing with on that side of the ball, that’s possible. You’re also betting on New England’s top-ten offensive line and rock-solid running back duo having a big game against Detroit’s league-worst defense. Your biggest concern with a New England bet is that No. 137 overall pick Bailey Zappe is making his first professional start while giving at least three points.
A bet on the Lions is a bet on the most effective offense in football through the first four games. I’m not ready to call Detroit the league's best offense, but I went into the year thinking they were a top-ten offense with a solid quarterback in Jared Goff and a great support cast. The Lions will be down D’Andre Swift and D.J. Chark, while Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson are still on the injury report. If you’re betting on Detroit you’re betting on a depleted Lions' offense. A bet on Detroit can also be a bet against Bailey Zappe in his first professional start. That angle comes with the expectation that Detroit puts together its best defensive effort of the season.
The total has already moved down on this game, so I won’t be taking a bad line here. However, I like the under in this contest, especially if Amon-Ra St. Brown is limited, if not out, for this matchup.
Awards Market Ramifications: Aidan Hutchinson is the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m treating this as a coin flip game, where I will have some exposure to both sides in winner pools. In confidence pools, I will have this contest ranked toward the bottom.
Spread Pool: I may take the Lions where I can get them at +3.5. In general, I’m taking the Lions or passing here.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Assessing Bailey Zappe | The Coach's Room
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