Analysis
7/6/23
5 min read
Looking Back at the 2022 Offensive Player of the Year Race
Betting in an NFL awards market differs from betting in other futures markets because voters determine the winner in awards races. In most futures markets, you’re betting on or, in some cases, against a definitive outcome.
For instance, if you bet on the Super Bowl winner this year, there will not be any questions about which team wins that game. That’s not how things work in awards markets.
In awards markets, who wins is determined by who 50 individuals vote for. What you’re betting on in an awards market is who someone else thinks should win. It requires an entirely different process from any other betting market.
That’s why we will look back at each awards race from last season, so we can try to see things more from a voter’s perspective than from our own.
Others in series: CPOY | OROY | DROY
Offensive Player of the Year Race
Any skill position player or quarterback can conceivably win the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) race. That results in an abnormal amount of options with a realistic path to winning.
Last season, 2021 OPOY winner Cooper Kupp and runner-up Jonathan Taylor were the primary favorites with +800 odds just before the season. Deebo Samuel and Derrick Henry were next up at +1000, while Davante Adams was +1400 despite changing teams.
Justin Jefferson was a 30-1 to 40-1 longshot when the OPOY market opened but was gradually steamed up to +1400 just before opening day. Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, along with running backs Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb, rounded out the primary contenders with +1800 odds.
Some notable long shots were Jalen Hurts (+3300), Ja’Marr Chase (+3300), Stefon Diggs (+4000) and Tyreek Hill (+5000).
Early Season
Saquon Barkley was slightly ahead of Chubb for the league’s lead in yards rushing through the first four weeks. That pushed Barkley from a deep 50-1-type long shot toward contention in this race.
Hill took a similar jump through the first four weeks, as he already led the league by 71 yards receiving at that early juncture. Diggs saw a similar surge with +1200 odds while being second in the league in yards receiving through four games.
Midseason
Through the first half of the year, several skill position players and quarterbacks still had a realistic path to being OPOY, but primary contenders were starting to emerge.
Allen, Mahomes and Hurts were the primary favorites in the MVP race, making them OPOY contenders.
Hill now led the league in yards receiving by 237 yards and had a real chance to breach 2,000 yards on the year. Jefferson was second with 867 yards, and Diggs was third with 857.
Those six players were the primary contenders in this race through nine weeks. At the midseason point, our six panelists were split at three votes each between Hill and Allen.
Second Half of the Season
Things changed in just a matter of weeks, as Hill (+250) and Jefferson (+275) were the two primary contenders by the end of November. MVP front-runner Hurts (+550) rounded out the top three.
Allen suffered a throwing arm injury in early November. He didn’t miss any time, but his production took a consistent dip. He failed to breach 200 yards passing in three of his final seven games and exceeded 300 yards passing once during that span.
As Allen’s production fell off, Hill and Jefferson pulled away from Diggs in the second half.
Hurts missed two full games down the stretch, costing him in the OPOY and MVP races. Hurts was slightly ahead of Mahomes in both races before missing Weeks 16 and 17.
Last Week of the Regular Season
With one week to go, the OPOY race had three contenders:
- Justin Jefferson -800
- Tyreek Hill +600
- Patrick Mahomes +600
Through 17 weeks, Jefferson held the lead in yards receiving (1,771) over Hill (1,687). Jefferson’s Minnesota Vikings had also clinched an NFC North crown while still being alive for the No. 1 seed.
With Hurts sidelined for two games, Mahomes was now the only real threat at quarterback, as he had the MVP all but locked up.
The Vote
Offensive Player of the Year voting:
- Justin Jefferson: 35
- Patrick Mahomes: 10
- Jalen Hurts: 3
- Josh Allen: 1
- Tyreek Hill: 1— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 10, 2023
Jefferson won OPOY pretty decisively behind a historic wide receiver season for the contending Vikings. He led the league in receptions (128) and yards receiving (1,809).
OPOY is the most unpredictable awards market because sometimes the MVP double dips, while in other cases, this award is essentially given to the league’s best skill position player. Mahomes won his second MVP award but was the runner-up in this race.
It would have been interesting to see how this race played out if Hurts didn’t miss any time. There have been instances where the quarterback who wins OPOY doesn’t win MVP.
Voting for Allen over Mahomes or Hurts in this race is at least a little bizarre.
Hill had a tough draw here as he was second in the league in receptions (119) and yards receiving (1,710) despite playing four games with a backup quarterback. If Tua Tagovailoa played a full season last year, Hill could have won OPOY.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
