Betting
8/3/22
4 min read
Five NFL Futures Bets To Take On PrizePicks
Usually, I hate playing NFL futures props. There is such a large amount of variance during the season that can ruin prop bets. That being said, there are currently a few NFL Future props on PrizePicks that are presently too valuable not to be played. Here are five props that are likely to cash at the end of the season
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 75.5 Receptions
With how elite Ja’Marr Chase was in his first season in the NFL, it's incredible he only had 81 receptions. That ranked him 18th in the league behind players such as Cole Beasley and Jakobi Meyers. Assuming Chase will have a similar role to last season, even without C.J. Uzomah, who was fourth on the team in targets with 63, having over 75.5 receptions should be an easy number for him to reach. I fully expect his role to increase, and I would bet this over well up to 80 receptions, and probably even higher.
Kyle Pitts OVER 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns
In the last three seasons, 20 tight ends have had at least 700 receiving yards in a single season. Of those 20 tight ends, only three have had fewer than five receiving touchdowns. This includes Kyle Pitts last season. While the Falcons’ offense might be horrific at times as they cope with the loss of Matt Ryan, Pitts should still be a focal point of their 2022 offense. With Pitts projected for well over 700 receiving yards next season, I fully expect Pitts to be able to go over 4.5 receiving touchdowns.
Trey Lance OVER 475.5 Rush Yards
Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch announced they have moved onto Trey Lance, so we can now project him for an entire season’s worth of stats. In the two weeks he started last season, he had 16 and eight rushing attempts. If we project a conservative eight rush attempts a game at five yards per attempt, that gives us 136 rush attempts for 680 rush yards. I think 136 rush attempts is extremely conservative and is his absolute floor. Even with that as his floor, he would need to be incredibly inefficient to go under this prop. I would easily play this over all the way up to 600 rush yards. This type of mismatch is exactly what you're searching for when betting NFL Futures.
Mark Andrews UNDER 89.5 Receptions
Everything can’t be an over, and this is our favorite under so far. Andrews had over 1300 receiving yards last season on 153 targets and 107 receptions. Those stats were on top of the Ravens’ 56% pass rate, their highest since 2017. Assuming the Ravens go back to a more run-heavy offense with J.K. Dobbins healthy, that should take away a large chunk of Baltimore’s pass attempts, reducing the number of targets and receptions for Mark Andrews. Learn more about how The 33rd Team views the state of the Ravens offense here.
Marquise Brown OVER 925.5 Receiving yards.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown rolls into the Arizona offense and will start the season with a chance to be the WR1 for the Cardinals, with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six games of the season. Christian Kirk racked up 982 receiving yards for the Cardinals last season. I think Brown is much more talented than Kirk and has a solid chance to surpass his 982 receiving yards last season. I would bet this line up to 1000 receiving yards.
[NOTE: Marquise Brown has recently been arrested for criminal speeding charges. If those charges are dropped, this is still a line to hit. However, in light of the August third news, we recommend holding tight if you're risk averse.]
Bonus Prop
Michael Thomas OVER 800.5 Receiving yards.
This prop still is at a discount because of Michael Thomas’s health. If he can suit up for week one, this should be an incredibly easy over. The last time we saw Michael Thomas play, back in 2020, he only played seven games and earned 438 yards. With Jameis Winston on track to start after tearing his ACL last season, Thomas will share the field with rookie Chris Olave and veteran Jarvis Landry. Even with the new additions, there should be plenty of opportunity in this new look offense in New Orleans to surpass 800 receiving yards. Take this injury discount while you have the chance.
