Analysis

10/10/22

7 min read

Five Fantasy Football Takeaways From NFL Week 5

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com. Enjoy!

Pittsburgh Steelers rookie Jaylen Warren steals passing-down role

• Rookie running back Jaylen Warren ran a career-high 29 routes this week, dwarfing lead back Najee Harris’ 17.
• The two backs have battled for passing-down reps all year. Warren took the lead on third down reps in Week 4 before adding most of the two-minute drill snaps in Week 5 to his workload.

Key: 3rd/4th-3+ refers to snaps on third and fourth down with three or more yards to go. 2-min. Refers to snaps on the final two minutes of the first half, aka “the two-minute drill.”

• Warren has outperformed Harris as a rusher too. 

• Warren is a candidate for weekly standalone value, and he could possibly steal the starting role outright.

Watch More: Recapping Steelers Loss to Bills

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Travis Etienne is outperforming James Robinson.

• Travis Etienne is stealing the show from backfield mate James Robinson. 
• Etienne has always had a stranglehold on passing-down work. His 77 combined snaps in the two-minute drill and on third and fourth down with three or more yards to go are lightyears ahead of Robinson’s 20. 
• During the last two weeks, Etienne has put a dent in Robinson’s rushing workload and is proving to be the superior rusher before and after contact.

• Buy low on Etienne while you can. Week 6 brings a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, whom the Jaguars trounced 24-0 in Week 2. Coach Doug Pederson will be eager to roll out a similar ball control game plan. This time, it’ll feature Etienne instead of Robinson.
• Jacksonville also has a winnable trench battle against the New York Giants in Week 7. Multiple players on the Giants’ defensive front have suffered injuries in recent weeks. 

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle: Receiver, not Blocker

• George Kittle debuted in Week 3 after missing the first two weeks with a groin injury. 
• Left tackle Trent Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain with 24 minutes left in regulation of Sunday’s game against Carolina, but it didn’t impact Kittle’s passing game participation.
• After Williams’ injury, Kittle totaled 12 routes run, just one fewer than wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had 14 dropbacks during that span.

• Kittle’s blocking prowess has been a metaphorical trapdoor in Kittle's fantasy football floor in the past. If he maintains this type of route participation, fantasy managers should expect a dominant performance from him soon.
• Kittle faces the Atlanta Falcons defense in Week 6, which is tight-end friendly. Week 7 brings immense shootout potential when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town. Buy low while you still can.

Buffalo Bills and Sustaining Elite Efficiency

• Buffalo ranks No. 1 in the league in the following categories: yards per game (440.4), yards per play (6.69), yards passing per game (324.0), third down conversion rate (55.7%), yards passing (1,620), passing touchdowns (14), longest passing completion (98) and first downs gained passing (78).
• The Bills rank No. 2 in the following categories: net yards per pass attempt (8.17), points scored per game (30.40), and offensive points scored per game (28.60).
• Fantasy Football managers must know when to avoid fluky, spiked performances, but Buffalo’s spiked performances performed are no fluke at all. If any of the players listed below remain on your waiver wire, add them this week.
• Rookie running back James Cook, written up here last week, leads Buffalo’s RBs with 4.12 yards after contact per carry. Cook usually gets his rushing reps late in games, but in Week 5, he took carries in the second quarter. He also took reps in third/fourth-and-long and the two-minute drill. 
• Cook has 17 carries for 89 yards rushing and one touchdown this season. Cook is No. 1 among Buffalo running backs in both targets per route run rate (46.7%) and yards per route run (2.47).
• Wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie was splitting time with Jamison Crowder in the slot before Crowder broke his ankle in Week 4. McKenzie’s 20.6% targets per route run rate ranks third among Bills wide receivers this year. 
• In a WR room full of downfield threats, McKenzie’s short-area prowess is his trump card. McKenzie missed Week 5 with a concussion, but he has a chance to lock up the starting slot role moving forward.
• Rookie wide receiver Khalil Shakir made his first start in Week 5 with Crowder, McKenzie and Jake Kumerow (ankle) out. Moving forward, he will contend with McKenzie for the No. 3 wide receiver role. 
• Shakir erupted for three receptions, 75 yards receiving and one touchdown on five targets, registering an outstanding 2.68 yards per route run. 
• Though Shakir has run a modest 47 routes this year, his 19.1% targets per route run rank fourth best among Buffalo’s wide receivers. This proves he’s commanding targets when on the field. Among rookie wide receivers with at least eight targets this year, Shakir’s 2.09 yards per route run ranks third.

Kenneth Walker III’s Week 5 Usage post-Rashaad Penny Injury

• Seattle Seahawks' lead running back Rashaad Penny suffered a tibia fracture with just over 26 minutes left in regulation on Sunday.
• Rookie running back Kenneth Walker III out-snapped backup DeeJay Dallas 13-to-3 after Penny exited. Unfortunately for Walker, Dallas’ three snaps all came on third/fourth-and-long. 
• On the bright side, Walker took two of the six two-minute drill snaps to close the second half and was playing ahead of a healthy Penny at that point.
• Walker dominated as a ballcarrier in Penny’s absence, taking five carries for 81 yards rushing and one touchdown. His 14.20 yards before contact per carry will steadily drop as he sees more work. But the outlier statistic indicates his vision and decision-making.
• Walker posted a respectable two yards after contact per carry.
• He also ran a backfield-high six routes but did not see pure passing work after halftime. 
• The rookie RB is a must-add off of waivers this week. He can be plugged in as a fantasy RB2 for the next four weeks against the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, Giants, and the Cardinals again.

Watch More: Ryan Ripken's Week 5 Takeaways

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.