Fantasy
11/24/23
8 min read
Fantasy Takeaways from the Thanksgiving Games
Jordan Love shines in his best fantasy performance of the season
Jordan Love had arguably his best game as a pro when the Packers stunned the Lions on Thanksgiving morning. He completed 68.8 percent of his passes (his second-best mark of the season) for 268 yards and three touchdowns. He also didn’t throw any picks and didn’t take any sacks, either.
His 57.1 percent success rate* was a season-high as well. Coupled with his 39 rushing yards, Love’s 26.6 fantasy points were his best showing this year, and after shaky performances in Weeks 5-9, where he averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game, Love has averaged 21.9 in the three games since. Love remains a fantasy streamer, and matchups against the Giants (Week 14), Buccaneers (Week 15), and Panthers (Week 16) are all viable weeks to start him.
*Gaining at least 50 percent of needed yards on 1st/2nd down and getting a 1st down on 3rd/4th down.
A.J. Dillon was characteristically inefficient against a solid Lions defensive front, gaining just 43 yards on 14 carries. He did catch all three targets for 38 yards in the passing game to slightly salvage his fantasy day, but those who started Dillon wanted more than his 11.1 PPR fantasy points. Aaron Jones likely misses at least 1-2 more games, and Dillon has slightly better RB matchups upcoming against the Chiefs (low-end fantasy RB2) and Giants (high-end fantasy RB2) the next two weeks.
The pass attack was funneled through receivers Jayden Reed (eight targets) and Christian Watson (seven) who combined for half of Love’s intended pass attempts. While Reed had scored 19 fantasy points in back-to-back games prior to his 15 PPR points (4-34-1 receiving with 2-16 rushing) yesterday morning, this was his first game with a target share above 16 percent since Week 3. Reed is a fantasy WR3 moving forward, who has out-played second-year WR Romeo Doubs the past month and a half.
After a disappointing seven-game stretch where he failed to reach even 12 PPR points, Watson exploded for five catches, 94 yards and a touchdown (20 fantasy points). A 23 percent target share on an average target depth of 20 yards (incredibly deep) is what fantasy managers were consistently hoping for when they selected him in the fourth and fifth rounds of fantasy drafts all summer. Watson should be sat next week against the Chiefs' formidable pass defense, but he could enter the fantasy WR2 conversation in the next four contests (Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings) to close out the fantasy season. Watson is most likely going to annoy fantasy managers, but yesterday’s performance does open the door for him to be a potential league winner down the stretch.
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Tony Pollard might finally be 2022 Pollard again
Sam Howell continues to churn out usable fantasy performances regardless of the team’s on-field results. Despite getting thrashed 45-10 by the Cowboys, Howell still threw for 300 yards and ran twice for 13 yards and a rushing score. He threw an interception and took four sacks, but those errors don’t show up much in a fantasy stat sheet. He remains a low-end fantasy QB1 each week no matter the matchup, thanks to his outrageous volume. Howell is now averaging 47 quarterback dropbacks per game, with Patrick Mahomes in a very distant second place (42).
Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson were part of a very frustrating committee for fantasy football. When facing a premium defense like the Cowboys, neither is a good start. Next week’s game against Miami should lend RB2 viability to Robinson and flex consideration for Gibson. The same goes for Week 15 against the Rams. Weeks 16 and 17 feature the Jets and 49ers as opponents, and either reaching 10 fantasy points in those matchups could be considered an accomplishment.
Curtis Samuel (12 targets) and Terry McLaurin (11 targets) combined for more than half of Howell’s looks, but only Samuel had a strong fantasy day, catching nine passes for 100 yards. No Commanders' pass-catcher should be consistently started each week with high expectations in fantasy, as McLaurin is the team leader with just 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game (WR36 just behind Packers WR Reed).
Dak Prescott continues his dominant surge in fantasy football and is now averaging 27.9 fantasy points per game since Week 12, three points higher than second-place Jalen Hurts (24.9). He’s an every-week fantasy QB1 for the rest of the season, with Dallas facing Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami and Detroit in the final five weeks of the fantasy season. None of those matchups are particularly intimidating.
Tony Pollard had his best fantasy performance of the season, rushing 13 times for 79 yards and a touchdown, along with reeling in all six targets for another 24 yards (22.3 fantasy points). After suffering from a lack of explosiveness and an inability to make defenders miss, he’s excelled the past two weeks in those departments. Granted, the matchups have been easier, but there’s a real possibility he was still recovering from his offseason ankle surgery. The Week 14 Eagles and Week 17 matchup against Detroit are not favorable, but the Seahawks, Bills and Dolphins sprinkled in between can all be plus matchups via matchup and/or game script. He’s a low-end fantasy RB1 rest of the season.
CeeDee Lamb led the team with a 28 percent target share (nine targets) but only corralled four of them for 53 yards and a touchdown. He also brought in a two-point conversion. When 17 PPR fantasy points is a down week, you’re doing something right, and Lamb remains a top-five fantasy receiver moving forward, with a very tasty schedule for scoring fantasy points.
Brandin Cooks is the only other Cowboys receiver of note from this contest, leading the team with 72 yards and a touchdown after catching four of five targets. Cooks remains a matchup-dependent fantasy WR3 type, but fortunately, the team’s final five matchups all fit the bill. Continue to fire up Cooks in your WR3 slot or flex position through Week 17.
Christian McCaffrey remains the best fantasy asset in the entire league
The 49ers dominated this contest throughout, and Brock Purdy wasn’t asked to do much in this one. He threw for just 209 yards and a touchdown, but the Seahawks' inept offense prevented any anxiety when Purdy threw a pick-six in the middle of this contest. Purdy is a fantasy streamer depending on the matchup and has a potential get-right game next week against an Eagles defense surrendering 20 fantasy points per game (fourth-highest) to opposing passers.
After 26 touches on Sunday, Christian McCaffrey didn’t slow down four days later, totaling 24 touches, 139 total yards, two touchdowns and 30.9 PPR fantasy points. He’s the fantasy RB1 each and every week, no matter the matchup.
After a few down weeks, Deebo Samuel led the team in receiving with a 30 percent target share (nine targets), catching seven for 79 yards. He also punched one in on the ground, totaling 22.4 fantasy points. George Kittle out-targeted Brandon Aiyuk, but Aiyuk had 50 yards and a touchdown to Kittle’s 19 yards and no score. Expect two of Samuel, Kittle, and Aiyuk to reach fantasy relevance each week, with Aiyuk the most likely of that trio to start in your fantasy lineups. Aiyuk is a high-end fantasy WR2, while Samuel is a fantasy WR3. Kittle is a frustrating fantasy TE1 who will continue to give you 20 fantasy points or five depending on the week, with little indication as to when he’ll pop off.
The nightmare fantasy season continued for QB Geno Smith (8.3 fantasy points), who has now been under 15 fantasy points in seven of his 11 games. Last night, he threw a pick, took six sacks and failed to score a touchdown. He is a desperation play in Week 16 against the Titans and Week 17 against the Steelers. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for quarterback help.
Rookie RB Zach Charbonnet handled 14 carries and four targets, with DeeJay Dallas only receiving two carries and one target. The young bell cow couldn’t quite deliver in Kenneth Walker’s absence, as he totaled just 58 yards and 9.8 fantasy points. The next three matchups are terrifying (Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles) and Charbonnet is a high-end fantasy RB3 if Walker should continue to miss time.
DK Metcalf led the team with a 33 percent target share (nine targets), but no Seahawks receiver crested even seven fantasy points thanks to Smith’s 180 passing yards and no touchdowns. The biggest highlight came from rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (pictured below), but his 11 percent target share is the more important number for fantasy managers to remember. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are in the low-end fantasy WR2 conversation, while Smith-Njigba is nothing more than a potential flex play.
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