Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) is congratulated after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Analysis

May 15, 2024

15 min read

2024 NFL Schedule Release: Predicting Every Team's Win-Loss Record

The NFL released the full 2024 schedule Wednesday night, and it's never too soon to look at each team's opponents and predict win totals.

Here is our best guess for each team's projected win-loss total, along with their over/under win total via DraftKings Sportsbook.

2024 NFL Record Predictions

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (O/U 10.5)

It’s hard to imagine the Buffalo Bills not winning double-digit games every year with Josh Allen under center. Since 2019, the Bills are 58-24 with Allen under center — not bad. 

However, there is no doubt the Bills have a worse roster than they did a year ago and are relying on Allen to carry them more than usual. Expect Buffalo to be in the playoffs again this season but for the team to regress some from its 2023 win total.

Record Prediction: 10-7

Miami Dolphins (O/U 9.5)

In the last two seasons, the Miami Dolphins have a 19-10 record when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the game. They've consistently had one of the NFL's best offenses and have been highly competitive in the AFC. 

However, the team’s defense is a concern entering the 2024 season, especially with Bradley Chubb (ACL) and Jaelen Phillips (torn Achilles) coming off major injuries. Miami’s offense will need to put up points to win games, but that might not be enough for this team to make it back to the playoffs. 

Record Prediction: 9-8

New England Patriots (O/U 4.5)

This will be the first season for the New England Patriots without Bill Belichick on the sideline since 1999. With Jerod Mayo as the coach, the Patriots will look much different this year. 

Expect this season to be rough, especially on offense where New England will have a rookie quarterback and a less-than-stellar offensive line. In the highly competitive AFC, the Patriots could finish with the conference’s worst record.

Record Prediction: 5-12

New York Jets (O/U 9.5)

This offseason, the New York Jets did a better job protecting themselves against a possible Aaron Rodgers injury by adding a viable backup quarterback (Tyrod Taylor) and throwing a ton of resources at the offensive line. 

And the additions of OTs Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses make the Jets a much more dangerous team. We'll see how Rodgers looks coming off the torn Achilles, but this is an outstanding roster with a ton of talent on both sides of the ball.

Record Prediction: 10-7

Lamar Jackson runs onto the field with purple lights flashing
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (8) runs onto the field before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (O/U 11.5)

The Baltimore Ravens were the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season, finishing with a 13-4 record. However, we should expect them to take a step back this year after losing so many key pieces on both sides of the ball. 

The loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald could be more significant than anyone anticipates, especially in the AFC North. Look for Baltimore to be as competitive as always but to win around three fewer games in 2024. 

It's also worth noting the Ravens will play a first-place schedule, making their path to double-digit wins much harder.

Record Prediction: 10-7

Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 10.5)

There might not be a more difficult team in the NFL to project this season than the Cincinnati Bengals. If Joe Burrow stays healthy for around 16 games, the Bengals should be considered the favorites in the AFC North. 

But Burrow’s health remains a significant question mark. Cincinnati’s schedule shouldn’t be as tough this season after the team finished in fourth place a year ago. However, it's challenging to project this team to win more than 10.5 games.

Record Prediction: 10-7

Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5)

The Cleveland Browns won 11 games last season (and fully rested all of their starters in Week 18) despite having four different starting quarterbacks. That goes to show the roster's depth and how well-coached the team was. 

However, Cleveland’s schedule is more challenging this season, and Deshaun Watson's health is still a question mark. Expect the Browns to play well but fall short of their 11 wins from last season.

Record Prediction: 9-8

Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 8.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers overhauled their roster in one offseason, switching out QBs Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph for Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. 

Pittsburgh added Patrick Queen and Donte Jackson on defense but lost Diontae Johnson. On paper, this is a much better team than a year ago. But the AFC North is deeper than ever. Expect the Steelers to hover around 10 wins and be a wild-card team again.

Record Prediction: 10-7

Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans, left, and quarterback C.J. Stroud
Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans laughs with quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) before the game against the New Orleans Saints at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

AFC South

Houston Texans (O/U 9.5)

The Houston Texans were the NFL’s best story last season. In 2022, they won just three games — and in 2023, they won the AFC South. 

The biggest reason for the seven-win improvement was C.J. Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans have loaded up on talent heading into Stroud's second season, adding Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon and Danielle Hunter. 

This team is primed for a postseason run and should be heavily favored to win the division again.

Record Prediction: 11-6

Indianapolis Colts (O/U 8.5)

Despite Anthony Richardson missing most of the 2023 season, the Indianapolis Colts managed to post a winning record. However, they fell just short of winning the AFC South, losing the crown to the Texans in the season's final game. 

The Colts have many possible outcomes this year, depending on Richardson's health and development. However, their roster should be good enough to keep them competitive in the AFC South.

Record Prediction: 9-8

Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 8.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars seemed like a shoo-in for the playoffs last season after their 8-3 start. But after multiple injuries to Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars lost five of their final six games and narrowly missed. 

Jacksonville added more size and strength to its defense, but the loss of Calvin Ridley could be a big one. The team hopes Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. can replace Ridley’s production, but the offense still feels in flux.

Record Prediction: 8-9

Tennessee Titans (O/U 6.5)

The Tennessee Titans are a sleeper team in the AFC after the additions of Tony Pollard, Ridley and several big-name offensive linemen. Hiring Brian Callahan has given this team new life, and Tennessee could be much better than anticipated.

However, the AFC South is very competitive, and the three other teams are likely to be strong playoff contenders. The Titans are much better on paper than they were a year ago, but they still might be a year away from competing for the division.

Record Prediction: 7-10

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton
Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton watches the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

AFC West

Denver Broncos (O/U 5.5)

The Denver Broncos moved on from Wilson this offseason and replaced him with rookie Bo Nix. While that is likely the correct move in the long term, it could significantly affect the Broncos’ 2024 win total. 

Nix will be the Day 1 starter in Denver, but the rest of the offense leaves a lot to be desired. The AFC is so competitive and talented that it wouldn’t be a shock to see this team finish last in the conference.

Record Prediction: 5-12

Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 11.5)

As long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, the Kansas City Chiefs can expect to win 11-plus games. This season should be no different, especially after they added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to their passing attack. 

The defense continues to be an underrated unit, and this is the NFL’s best coaching staff. Expect the Chiefs to contend for the No. 1 seed again this season.

Record Prediction: 12-5

Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 6.5)

So much went right for the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason that it's hard not to be excited about the team’s direction. They kept Antonio Pierce as the coach and made significant upgrades on defense. 

They drafted two Day 1 starters — TE Brock Bowers and OL Jackson Powers-Johnson — and the roster is in a good place. However, the lack of a franchise quarterback casts a dark cloud over the entire franchise. The Raiders can hang with many teams in the AFC, but they might have the bleakest quarterback situation in the conference. 

Average quarterback play could make them a playoff contender. But without it, they could finish last in the AFC West.

Record Prediction: 7-10 

Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 8.5)

How quickly can Jim Harbaugh make the Los Angeles Chargers competitive in the AFC West? Time will tell, but this roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot. 

Los Angeles has a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert — but might have the league’s worst skill position room. Plus, the defense needs a major overhaul, and the Chargers couldn't address that unit much in the draft. 

Expect that fundamental changes will come in Year 2 of the Harbaugh era and that this season will be more of an evaluation year.

Record Prediction: 7-10

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (88) is congratulated by QB Dak Prescott (4) after scoring a touchdown in the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at AT&T Stadium. (Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (O/U 10.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have won 12 games in the past three seasons and the NFC East twice during that span. But this is easily the least talented roster they've had going into a season in a while. 

A healthy Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons and several other All-Pro players make the Cowboys a good bet to win double-digit games again. They just don't have the ceiling we are used to.

Record Prediction: 10-7

New York Giants (O/U 6.5)

The New York Giants are back to square one of their rebuild. Daniel Jones isn’t the answer at quarterback, and New York still has several question marks on its offensive line. 

The Giants' defense should be improved, but the team plays in a tough division and has a brutal schedule (AFC North, NFC South). It’ll be a struggle for New York to win seven or more games.

Record Prediction: 6-11

Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 10.5)

After an embarrassing late-season collapse, the Philadelphia Eagles made significant changes. They hired two coordinators (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio) and made crucial additions on both sides of the ball. 

The most significant addition is RB Saquon Barkley, who should allow Philadelphia to be more balanced on offense. The team’s back seven is still a concern and could start multiple rookies immediately. With a more demanding schedule ahead of the Eagles in 2024, don't be surprised if they hover around 11 wins again.

Record Prediction: 12-5 

Washington Commanders (O/U 6.5)

No team has dealt with more change than the Washington Commanders. Not only do they have a new coach in Dan Quinn, but they also have a new quarterback and offensive coordinator and brand-new defense. 

Washington should be more competitive in Year 1 under Quinn, but this team still has a long way to go in the NFC East.

Record Prediction: 6-11

Chicago Bears first-round draft picks Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears first-round draft choices Rome Odunze (left) and Caleb Williams (right) pose for photos at a press conference at Halas Hall on April 26. (David Banks-USA TODAY Sports)

NFC North

Chicago Bears (O/U 8.5)

There might not be a more exciting NFC team than the Chicago Bears. The additions of Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift will make the Bears must-see TV. 

Chicago will undoubtedly be better this season, but it plays in a tough division and will face the NFC West and the AFC South this year. Look for Chicago to be a borderline playoff team. 

Record Prediction: 8-9

Detroit Lions (O/U 10.5)

The Detroit Lions were just a few plays away from playing in the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. It was a marvelous season, as Dan Campbell turned the Lions into a bonafide contender. 

The best news of the offseason was that they retained coordinator Ben Johnson, widely viewed as one of the NFL's brightest offensive minds. Detroit should be highly competitive again and have a chance to be even better.

Record Prediction: 11-6

Green Bay Packers (O/U 10.5)

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers caught fire in the second half of the season, upsetting the Cowboys in Round 1 of the playoffs. And Green Bay hung with the 49ers in Round 2 before falling just short. 

The Packers are one of the league's youngest teams, and Love should only be better in his second full season as the starter. Expect this team to compete with the Lions for the NFC North division title.

Record Prediction: 10-7

Minnesota Vikings (O/U 6.5)

J.J. McCarthy couldn’t have walked into a better situation as a rookie. The Minnesota Vikings have playmakers all over the field and one of the league’s top offensive lines. 

Plus, Kevin O'Connell is a fantastic play-caller and consistently puts his quarterback in optimal situations. However, it will still take time for a rookie quarterback to learn the offense, and Minnesota's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Expect the Vikings to be more competitive than their record indicates.

Record Prediction: 6-11

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (O/U 9.5)

Adding Kirk Cousins should make the Atlanta Falcons a legitimate threat in the NFC South. The offense is loaded with playmakers and has one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. 

But the defense is still a major issue, and the Falcons did not do much to address that unit in the draft. Still, look for Atlanta to compete for the division title in 2024.

Record Prediction: 9-8

Carolina Panthers (0/U 4.5)

The Carolina Panthers were a disaster last year, finishing with the worst record in the league (2-15). But they made some notable moves this offseason, including beefing up their offensive line and adding Diontae Johnson. 

The Panthers' loss of Brian Burns will significantly affect the team's pass rush, and we should expect the defense to regress. However, look for Carolina to at least double its 2023 win total in Year 2 of the Bryce Young era. 

Record Prediction: 5-12

New Orleans Saints (O/U 7.5)

The New Orleans Saints are entering Year 2 of the Derek Carr era, and enthusiasm has dipped with this franchise. The Saints are old and slow at several positions, and their offensive line is deteriorating. 

There is still talent on defense, but neither side of the ball is exciting. The Falcons and Buccaneers have passed them in the division. Don't be surprised if New Orleans is one of the most underwhelming teams of the 2024 season.

Record Prediction: 6-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 8.5)

Not only did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not take a step backward after Tom Brady's retirement, they won the NFC South and advanced to the Divisional Round. 

Baker Mayfield steadied the ship, and the Buccaneers were one of the league’s most surprising teams. The NFC South should be more competitive this season, but Tampa Bay has a talented roster with an established quarterback. Look for the Buccaneers to hover around .500.

Record Prediction: 9-8

Arizona QB Kyler Murray, in all white, stands behind his offensive line at the line of scrimmage
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (1) at the line of scrimmage during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (O/U 6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals finished with just four wins last season, but they played much better down the stretch with a healthy Kyler Murray. 

The additions of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Darius Robinson make this a much better roster than it was a year ago. The Cardinals still aren't ready to contend, but they will be much more competitive.

Record Prediction: 7-10

Los Angeles Rams (O/U 8.5)

The loss of Aaron Donald is huge for the Los Angeles Rams. Everything they did on defense was built around his dominance. They also lost DC Raheem Morris, widely viewed as a top defensive mind, to the Falcons. 

However, the trio of Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua makes the Rams a dangerous team. Their roster has several holes, but those three will cover up a lot of warts.

Record Prediction: 9-8

San Francisco 49ers (O/U 11.5)

The San Francisco 49ers won double-digit games for the third consecutive season and were just a play away from winning their sixth Super Bowl. 

They enter the 2024 season as the clear favorites in the NFC with arguably the best roster in the league. As long as this team can stay relatively healthy, it should have no problem winning 12-plus games again.

Record Prediction: 12-5

Seattle Seahawks (O/U 7.5)

It will be strange not to see Pete Carroll roaming the sidelines in Seattle, but the Seattle Seahawks landed Macdonald to replace him.

Seattle is in the middle of a mini-rebuild, and the franchise’s direction is uncertain. But expect Geno Smith and the rest of the offense to keep the Seahawks competitive for most of the season. 

Record Prediction: 7-10