Expert Analysis


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Fantasy Football Impact: NFL Mock Draft 4.3

Fantasy Mock Draft

The 33rd Team's Scouting Department just released its 2023 NFL Mock Draft 4.3, which included several intriguing fantasy football landing spots. Below, you’ll find thoughts on every Round 1 quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end landing spot. There may be a new rookie WR1 if the NFL Draft plays out similarly to this mock.

Fantasy Impact for Mock Draft 4.3

Panthers, Pick 1: QB Bryce Young

  • The Carolina Panthers have a solid offensive line but are severely lacking skill-position talent.
  • The Panthers' talent around Young (scouting report) would be similar to the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars. Their skill players were not stars but complementary, competent pieces.
  • Young is a low-ceiling, high-floor rookie quarterback prospect. Mac Jones’ rookie season is a reasonable expectation in Year 1.

>>READ: 2023 NFL Mock Draft 4.3

Texans, Pick 2: QB Anthony Richardson

  • Anthony Richardson (scouting report) to the Houston Texans isn’t a fantasy fit we would be particularly excited about.
  • The only veteran quarterback presence on their depth chart is Case Keenum, who has an entirely different skill set than Richardson.
  • Richardson would probably start most of 2023 in this scenario, making 3,000 passing yards with 700 rushing yards in the range of outcomes.
  • The Texans have an ascending offensive line but lack high-end talent at the skill positions.
  • Drafting Quentin Johnston (scouting report) at Pick 12 helps (discussed later on), but Johnston is a raw prospect who will likely contribute more in Year 2.
  • Inefficient passing numbers (55 percent completion rate, 6.5 yards per attempt) and significant rushing volume (7-12 attempts per game) should be anticipated.

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Titans, Pick 3: QB Will Levis (Trade with Cardinals)

  • Will Levis (scouting report) played in a tough situation at Kentucky this past season, so the Tennessee Titans’ patchwork offensive line and barren skill positions wouldn’t be anything new for him.
  • Ryan Tannehill with a stronger arm is the player comp given by our scouting department. Having Tannehill as a mentor for Year 1 makes sense.
  • Levis starting over Tannehill before the Titans are eliminated from playoff contention would be surprising, making this a terrible fantasy spot.
  • WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo will suffer whenever Levis starts games. Conservative game plans should be expected with Levis being far from a completed product.

Colts, Pick 4: QB C.J. Stroud

  • The Indianapolis Colts went from an elite offensive line to a bottom-10 line from 2021 to 2022.
  • C.J. Stroud (scouting report) struggles with pressure management, and this would likely be a rough 2023 season for Stroud.
  • Stroud often found himself in the perfect situation in college, but he possesses above-average arm strength and instincts.
  • This is a lateral-fantasy move for RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman compared to Matt Ryan.
  • Kenny Pickett’s rookie year is the floor, while Joe Burrow’s rookie season is the ceiling for Stroud on the Colts.
  • The fantasy points per game band would be rather narrow, between 12-16 per game.

Texans, Pick 12: WR Quentin Johnston

  • Johnston has a similar outside, vertical role to Nico Collins, so this would be an odd wide receiver pairing.
  • Year 1 isn’t likely to be fruitful, as Johnston is a raw prospect who would be paired with a talented — but rookie — quarterback in Young.
  • The Year 1 ceiling is a poor man’s Christian Watson. Johnston’s fantasy value would drops if he landed here.
  • His ADP is hovering in the Round 7 range, but we believe he falls closer to Round 9 on the Texans.
    • Johnston is frequently mocked in the late first, where more potent offenses are drafting. That is why the strong draft capital would actually be a negative for his fantasy outlook in Year 1.

Commanders, Pick 14: QB Hendon Hooker (Trade with Patriots)

  • Hendon Hooker (scouting report) landing in Washington would signal the end of the Sam Howell experiment.
  • Jacoby Brissett was a less prolific runner in college than Hooker but would be a good mentor.
  • Brissett would likely start for roughly half the season before the Washington Commanders pivoted to Hooker.
  • The offensive line is weak, but this roster is loaded with receiving weapons.
  • Within the confines of this mock draft, Hooker’s landing spot is the best for Year 1 fantasy upside.

Packers, Pick 15: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

  • We would be excited about this destination for Jackson Smith-Njiba (scouting report).
  • Watson plays on the outside and would take away defensive attention from Smith-Njigba in the slot.
  • Smith-Njigba would likely start over Romeo Doubs on Day 1 for the Green Bay Packers.
  • If QB Jordan Love can be serviceable, it’s easy to see 75 catches and 850 yards as an outcome for Smith-Njigba’s rookie season.
  • Think lite version Amon-Ra St. Brown for Smith-Njigba's rookie year ceiling. The floor is determined by Love’s development as a starter.

Seahawks, Pick 20: WR Jordan Addison

  • Geno Smith emerged as a highly accurate, efficient quarterback last season, and the Seattle Seahawks have an ascending offensive line after drafting rookies at both tackle positions last year.
  • Jordan Addison (scouting report) is unlikely to usurp DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett on the depth chart in Year 1.
  • Think of Addison like Tyler Boyd of the Cincinnati Bengals should he land in Seattle. Addison can give you 700 receiving yards, with the upside for more should any starters get hurt.
  • His baseline rookie year expectations should be around 600 receiving yards, as he’d be the fourth option in this offense behind Metcalf, Lockett and RB Kenneth Walker.
  • Should anything happen to Lockett, Addison has a decent chance to put up similar fantasy production in the second half of 2023.

Chargers, Pick 21: WR Jalin Hyatt

  • Jalin Hyatt (scouting report) to the Los Angeles Chargers is what fantasy football dreams are made of.
  • Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have a case for the slowest WR duo in the NFL.
  • Speedy-undrafted WR Jalen Guyton put up more than 500 yards in 2020, so the floor for Hyatt is incredibly high if he lands in Los Angeles.
  • The Year 1 ceiling here would be Henry Ruggs’ abbreviated 2021 season when he was on a 1,072-yard pace over 16 games.
  • Justin Herbert is a strong-armed, elite quarterback who would mesh well with Hyatt.
  • Hyatt likely goes ahead of Johnston and Addison in redraft if this mock draft plays out in real life.

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Jaguars, Pick 24: TE Michael Mayer

  • Long-term, this is an exciting fit. Michael Mayer (scouting report) would be paired with QB Trevor Lawrence and coach Doug Pederson.
  • For 2023, there are reasons to be hesitant. Evan Engram is an above-average pass-catching tight end on the franchise tag this season.
  • Mayer put up more than 800 receiving yards during his sophomore and junior seasons at Notre Dame, so it’s reasonable to expect solid production whenever he gets the reps.
  • For fantasy, think of him as a handcuff tight end with upside.
    • Should Engram get injured early, Mayer could replicate Engram’s 2022 production (73 catches for 766 yards).

Giants, Pick 25: WR Jonathan Mingo

  • Jonathan Mingo (scouting report) is a well-built, athletic outside receiver who would press Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton for playing time by October.
  • He’s often mocked late Day 2 or early Day 3, so this would be considered by some as a massive reach on the New York Giants’ part.
  • Expectations for Year 1 should be kept low, as he’d remain behind TE Darren Waller and RB Saquon Barkley in the offense's pecking order.
  • The upside here is some version of Slayton’s 2022 season, though Mingo does not appear to be as fast or explosive.
  • Mingo would be worth consideration in fantasy drafts at the pick 130 range. Mingo vs. Donovan Peoples-Jones would be a real-fantasy dilemma.

Cowboys, Pick 26: RB Bijan Robinson

  • As discussed in this previous article, Bijan Robinson (scouting report) to the Dallas Cowboys is a strange landing spot.
  • Tony Pollard would lose the majority of the rushing work to Robinson. However, it’s tough to imagine Robinson getting more than 60 percent of the team’s receiving work in 2023.
  • Ezekiel Elliott had double-digit TDs in three of the past four seasons, so there’s immense TD upside for Robinson.
  • Expect 250-275 carries, along with 40-60 targets in Year 1. Robinson’s ADP likely drops from the Round 1/2 turn to the middle of Round 3.
  • Pollard’s ADP likely settles in the Round 6 range should Robinson land here, and there’s a chance Pollard is moved to another team, as he’s only on the franchise tag for 2023.

Bengals, Pick 28: TE Dalton Kincaid

  • C.J. Uzomah and Hayden Hurst have been on 500-yard paces each of the past two years for the Cincinnati Bengals, and this is probably the floor for Dalton Kincaid (scouting report), who is an athletic, pro-ready pass-catcher at tight end.
  • He definitely leapfrogs Mayer in redraft ADP should he land here, and the general upside is 65 receptions, 800 yards and 6-8 TDs.
  • Kincaid would remain a fantasy bench stash for early in the season, with upside as he becomes more integrated into this high-powered offense.
    • Should anything happen to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins or Boyd, we could be looking at 55-65 yards per game (880-1,040 yard pace over 16 games) anytime Kincaid is the third pass-game option.
  • Because of the importance of TDs for tight ends, Kincaid likely gets drafted in a similar range to Dawson Knox in redraft.
  • Long-term, this is an elite landing spot, as we always want our tight ends paired with elite quarterbacks.

Chiefs, Pick 31: WR Zay Flowers

  • Zay Flowers (scouting report) jumps into Round 6 or 7 of fantasy drafts if he lands with the Kansas City Chiefs, possibly going as the rookie WR1 off the board in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
  • Flowers spent 51 percent of his time in college out of the slot. Andy Reid would use him creatively in Year 1.
  • Kadarius Toney would start over him when healthy (keyword “when”), but Flowers getting drafted here likely signals the end of the Skyy Moore experiment.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster had a mediocre target share and is less explosive than Flowers after the catch. Still, Smith-Schuster put up 78 receptions for 933 yards last season.
  • That feels like a slightly above-average outcome for Flowers’ rookie year. Flowers likely has some version of the Tyreek Hill rookie year (61 receptions, 593 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs), with much less rushing involvement (Hill ran 24 times for 267 yards that season).
  • Flowers suffered from inconsistent quarterback play at Boston College, so the upside is massive, given he’ll be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes.