Analysis
12/18/22
8 min read
Fantasy Football: Week 16 Waiver Wire Adds, Drops and More
Let’s skip the fluff and get right into Week 16 waiver wire advice, because Week 16 is here — and so is your fantasy championship. And if it isn’t, then you’ll need to prep hard for the next round... or simply to avoid your league punishment.
Now is the time to stash those handcuffs, cut ties with injured players and crush the waiver wire.
Unfortunately, Week 16 waivers are not pretty.
Midway through my Week 16 waiver report for @The33rdTeamFB and I have two main thoughts:
1. Holy cow how's it Week 16 already
2. This week's waivers... 🤢— Zach Cohen (@ZachCohenFB) December 18, 2022
I have advice on who to add, stash and drop ahead of Week 16.
This will be geared toward PPR leagues unless otherwise noted. All players included are available in 40% or more of leagues, per FantasyPros’ rostership data. All stats are credited to TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy Can Be Streamed
- He’s rostered in 21.3% of leagues.
- Purdy scored 21.7 fantasy points against Tampa Bay in Week 14 but snagged only 16.5 fantasy points against Seattle in Week 15.
- He faces a Washington defense in Week 16 that, prior to Week 15, had only given up six games of 17 or more fantasy points. The quarterbacks for those games: Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts twice, Dak Prescott, Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.
- The Commanders really haven’t faced any other good quarterbacks. Either way, Purdy’s not matchup-proof yet, though he shouldn’t be too impacted by good defenses.
Probably Shouldn’t Add Zach Wilson
- He’s rostered in 5.7% of leagues.
- Wilson didn’t look great, but dropped 19.4 fantasy points in lieu of injured Mike White.
- The 19.4 points was Wilson’s best fantasy performance of the season.
- Coming into Week 15, Wilson averaged 11.1 points per game.
- Even if White misses Week 16, can we really trust Wilson to repeat his performance? Entering Week 15, the Lions allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
- The Jets do have a fine matchup against the Jaguars in Week 16. Jacksonville has given up 20 or more fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of their last five games.
- If you’re desperate, a loose case can be made for streaming Wilson – if he retains the starting job.
- Still, I imagine there are better quarterbacks available on the waiver wire, such as Brock Purdy.
Running Backs
Add Tyler Allgeier, Don't Overspend
- He’s rostered in 35.3% of leagues.
- Allgeier balled out for 22.6 fantasy points, including 137 rushing yards and a touchdown.
- The Week 15 touchdown was the rookie’s second rushing touchdown of the season.
- Allgeier has scored 21.3 fantasy points combined over his last four games but has seen 10 or more carries in each of his last three games.
- Only the Bears (58.6%) have called run plays more often than the Falcons (56.1%) this year. That commitment to running the ball gives Allgeier some solid upside.
- With how underwhelming running backs are in fantasy, Allgeier is a fine bench player so long as you maintain expectations.
- Even if you add him, you won’t want to play him in Week 16 because Atlanta faces Baltimore, a top-five team against running backs in fantasy in Week 15.
- However, Allgeier could be a deep flex play in Week 17 against Arizona, assuming your fantasy team is still in contention.
Roster Zack Moss
- He’s rostered in 1.4% of leagues.
- Deon Jackson is rostered in 9.5% of leagues.
- Taylor suffered a high ankle sprain, and he's done for the season.
- Moss finished the game with more than double the snaps and almost double the carries than Jackson.
- While Moss ran five more routes than Jackson, they both only saw one target.
- Moss played on 10 third downs; Jackson on four.
- You should just play it safe and add Moss off waivers regardless of Taylor’s status.
- Jackson is widely viewed as the better pass-catcher, though, and deserves some waiver consideration, too.
- Last week, I talked about the importance of adding handcuffs with some examples.
- It’s for that reason that Kareem Hunt, who has just three games of 10 plus fantasy points, should stay on rosters, unless you need the spot.
James Cook Only Is Rosterable
- He’s rostered in 50.2% of leagues.
- Cook scored 11.9 fantasy points in Week 15, including a late first-half receiving touchdown.
- It’s his second double-digit performance of the season, with his first coming in Week 13.
- He only scored 2.5 points in Week 14.
- Devin Singletary saw almost double of Cook’s workload in snaps, carries and routes run.
- At this point, Cook is simply a handcuff stash on your bench.
- I wouldn’t blame you for cutting him, though good to be aware, the Bills face the weak Bears run defense in Week 16.
- Entering Week 15, Chicago allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
Don’t Fall Into Marlon Mack Trap
- He’s rostered in 5.3% of leagues.
- On the surface, Mack may seem like a must-add for Week 16.
- He scored 15.7 and 16.3 fantasy points in the last two weeks, respectively.
- In Week 14, Mack scored a 66-yard touchdown on a screen pass.
- In Week 15, Mack scored a three-yard touchdown to pair with 37 total rushing yards.
- He also caught all four of his targets for 26 yards.
- Once again, Mack played second fiddle to Latavius Murray, who saw 19 more carries than Mack.
- Mack has been a benefactor of luck more than anything.
- If Murray were to get hurt, then Mack would finally be a top waiver priority.
Wide Receivers
Don’t expect much from KJ Osborn
- He's rostered in 3.3% of leagues.
- He scored 31.7 fantasy points in Week 15. His final stat line: 10 catches on 16 targets for 157 receiving yards and a touchdown.
- Minnesota had to dig their way out of a 33 point deficit so naturally those passing stats are heavily inflated.
- Osborn has scored in back-to-back weeks but only had two touchdowns in his previous 12 games to start the season.
- He remains touchdown dependent without significant, consistent volume.
- Unless Adam Thielen or Justin Jefferson miss time, Osborn can't be trusted.
- Until then, there’s no need to spend much waiver capital on him.
Mack Hollins Worth Roster Spot
- He’s rostered in 24.5% of leagues.
- Even with Darren Waller back, Hollins scored 14 fantasy points in Week 15.
- That included four catches on eight targets for 40 receiving yards and a touchdown.
- He’s scored 8+ fantasy points in each of his last five games.
- He’s seen the second-most targets on the team in that span.
- Hollins also has two touchdowns and three games of 10+ fantasy points in that span.
- He doesn’t have much upside, but Hollins’ floor could make him a flex play in some leagues.
- The Raiders face the Steelers in Week 16, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Drop Michael Gallup
- He’s rostered in 65.6% of leagues.
- Fantasy points over his last two games: 1.2 in a high-scoring loss to Jacksonville and 6.0 in a win over the Texans.
- He scored 18.3 points in Week 13, but it was due to scoring two touchdowns. His four receptions for 23 yards was nothing to write home about.
- Gallup’s limited success this season has proven inconsistent.
- He scored 10 plus points in three games, one occurring in Week 4, but only one of them didn't rely on a touchdown to get there.
- Wide receiver is the deepest position in fantasy, so you can replace Gallup on your bench with a hotter, better option off waivers.
WATCH: Dropping One WR for Another
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson is Ultimate Streamer
- He’s rostered in 17.7% of leagues.
- Johnson has a touchdown in five of his last full six games played, dating back to Week 7.
- He’s seen more than four targets in just two of those games, though.
- Typically, you shouldn’t succumb to touchdown-dependent numbers like Johnson, but his usage has been consistent enough to where you can shrug your shoulders and toss him in your lineups.
- The main reason for that? Tight end is a barren wasteland in fantasy football. You’re just hoping Johnson scores a touchdown, again.
- The Saints face the Browns and Eagles next, who are both just above average in allowing fantasy points to tight ends.
C.J. Uzomah This Week’s Fool’s Gold
- He’s rostered in fewer than 1% of leagues.
- Uzomah scored twice on just two targets in Week 16 — his first two touchdowns of the season.
- If Zach Wilson continues to start, don't expect this type of production from Uzomah on a consistent basis.
- Even if you desperately need a tight end, there are better options than Uzomah.
