Analysis

8/28/23

43 min read

Fantasy Football: Top 200 Draft Rankings for 2023 Season

By Kev Wheeler

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Season’s greetings to all who celebrate fantasy draft season like the December holidays.

If you are just starting your fantasy football research, there is no better way to prepare for a local home league draft than to jump in a few best ball drafts.

Many people try a few mock drafts on popular fantasy football hosting sites, but there is little to no value in any type of mock draft. People try things in mock drafts they likely would never do in a real draft, and most people quit after a few rounds. So rankings or ADP from May are the default picks that just continue to be auto-drafted way ahead or behind where they get drafted now.

There really isn’t much difference between best ball or regular re-draft leagues except roster construction and the number of players on your roster. A regular re-draft league usually has 16 roster spots, including a defense and kicker, with one starting QB, two RBs, two WRs, a TE and a flex position. High-stakes re-draft usually has 20 rounds and an extra starting WR or flex spot, which is similar to best ball leagues.

Readers can use these rankings for full or half PPR (points per reception) scoring leagues.

The rankings are based on leagues with 16 total roster spots, but as you will see, go well beyond the number of players needed for drafts in those leagues. So if you have deeper rosters, these are the rankings you need. For leagues with a defense and a kicker, I recommend waiting until the 14th round to get a kicker and the 15th round for a defense.

There is a cheat sheet PDF file at the end of this article.

Top 200 Fantasy Football Rankings

Tier 1 – The Ultra Elite

The ultra-elite tier is for players who are the most likely ones needed to win your league — or to at least stay competitive.

Justin Jefferson could easily be the top overall fantasy producer. The 24-year-old was the NFL’s top wide receiver last season. Expect about 170 to 190 targets, 125 to 135 receptions, 1,750 to 2,000 receiving yards and eight to 10 touchdowns from him this season.

Ja'Marr Chase has a clear connection with his QB Joe Burrow, who also was his teammate at LSU. Barring injury to Chase or Burrow, expect Chase to receive about 150-170 targets, 100 to 120 receptions, 1,600 to 1,800 receiving yards and around 15 touchdowns. Chase is somewhat quarterback-dependent, so if Burrow goes down, Tee Higgins might take over as the Bengals' top dog.

Christian McCaffrey turned 27 this offseason, which increases his injury factor. McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7 last season, and from that point on, he averaged 21.7 PPR points per game and 5.7 yards per touch and scored 11 total touchdowns. He handled 58 percent of the running back carries and was second on the team with a 19.8 percent target share. McCaffrey averaged 15 touches per game in the four regular-season games Elijah Mitchell was active and averaged 23.5 touches with Mitchell out.

Tyreek Hill was the WR3 in fantasy points per game last season. He had five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards, led the league in deep targets, had an insane 31.6 percent target share and ranked first in yards per route run.

Cooper Kupp turned 30 during the offseason, but he is a clear top-tier wide receiver when he plays, averaging the most PPR points per game of all non-quarterback position players. However, injuries derailed him last season and in 2018 — he missed eight games in each campaign. He plays very aggressively, which has proven to be very good but high risk.

Travis Kelce has finished TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring in six of the past seven seasons, and for most of those years, he did so in dominant fashion. Last season, he accounted for an extra six PPR points per game over the TE2. He is getting old, and the age cliff is near, but if he plays 17 games, he gives you a clear weekly advantage at the position.

Tier 2 – The Potentially (or Formerly) Elite

Any of these players could be the top fantasy performer overall. Each has a minor issue that makes us hesitate to put them in Tier 1.

The choices in this tier really influence future roster construction decisions.

At first, I had running backs ahead of the wide receivers in this tier, not because they were better but because of scarcity, supply and demand. The thirst for the top RB usually drives up the price in most “home” leagues, so the rankings were adjusted accordingly.

But after going through a draft with these rankings, I realized there are running backs available through several rounds, and the price of running backs in this tier doesn't need to tip the scales.

Rookie Bijan Robinson is widely considered one of the best overall prospects entering the NFL this season and the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Robinson forced a total of 112 missed tackles this past season at Texas and enters an Atlanta Falcons offense that had the most running back rushing yards last season with fifth-round rookie Tyler Allgeier and veteran Cordarrelle Patterson.

Stefon Diggs remains among the elite wide receivers in the NFL. He has three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions,1,225 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns.

Nick Chubb has been quietly dominant in his five years in the NFL — it's hard to believe he's only been playing for five years. If he finally gets a chance to have the backfield to himself this season and avoids nagging injuries, he should project as a top-three running back. I'm still a bit concerned that Kareem Hunt can't find a team to pay him and that the Cleveland Browns will end up signing him to a team-friendly deal. (Hunt likely would prefer to stay in his hometown: Cleveland.)

A.J. Brown turned 26 this offseason after a breakout 2022 season. We should expect about 140 to 150 targets, 90 to 100 receptions, 1,500 to 1,700 receiving yards and about 11 touchdowns from him, barring serious injury.

Barkley finished as the RB5 last season. He finished second in overall touches (352) and backfield opportunity share (80 percent). He also scored 10 rushing touchdowns with 23 carries inside the 10-yard line. If Barkley can stay healthy, he will be great — but without a long-term deal, he could sit if he feels less than 100 percent.

CeeDee Lamb is 24, and many are hoping for him to break into the top tier. We should expect about 150 to 160 targets, 110 to 120 receptions, 1,400 to 1,600 receiving yards, and eight to 10 touchdowns.

Many analysts have Austin Ekeler in the top tier, but the 28-year-old likely will see fewer targets with the addition of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. We should expect fewer dump-offs to running backs because the Chargers will throw more downfield.

Franchise tagged by Dallas Cowboys ($10.1 million), Tony Pollard finally got his chance to break out with more than 200 touches for the first time in the 2022 season. He should see many more opportunities with Ezekiel Elliott gone. That gives Pollard a chance to improve on his nearly 1,400 total yards and 12 total touchdowns while finishing as the RB9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) in 2022.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 10.3 targets on a 29.6 percent target share during his last 20 healthy games. We should expect about 140 to 150 targets, 100 to 110 receptions, 1,100 to 1,200 receiving yards and six to seven touchdowns.

If he had been drafted to a better offense last year, Garrett Wilson could have been the top fantasy rookie wide receiver drafted last season. He's proven to be quarterback-proof and stands a good chance of being ranked in the top five overall by this time next year if Aaron Rodgers still has anything left in the tank.

Jaylen Waddle has been outstanding in his first two years in the NFL and in different ways each year. We should expect about 120 to 130 targets, 85 to 105 receptions, 1,300 to 1,400 receiving yards, and eight to 10 touchdowns. Waddle has proven to be quarterback proof so Tua Tagavailoa’s concussion concerns shouldn’t affect Waddle's draftability.

Davante Adams will turn 31 in December, and there will likely be little to motivate him to play the last six games of the season unless he gets traded.

Chris Olave had 72 receptions on 119 targets for 1,042 receiving yards in his rookie campaign. Among rookie wide receivers with at least 50 targets since 2011, Olave posted the fifth-best yards per route run.

Coming off a great sophomore campaign with 95 receptions on 136 targets and nearly 1,200 receiving yards, former Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith has proven to be a very consistent piece of the high-powered Philadelphia offense.

Derrick Henry is absolutely elite when he is on the field, but his age (29) has made us a bit hesitant to draft him until the mid-late second round.

Higgins is flying under the radar because of the Burrow-Chase connection. Higgins was the WR11 in PPR scoring in Weeks 1-16 despite missing two games in that span. 

Tier 3 – Roster Foundation

Tier 3 is large, but in all reality, any of these players could jump to the top or bottom of this tier with breaking news. This is where I also begin to look at the high-end quarterbacks. Rarely will I consider taking a quarterback in round 2, but in a tight end-premium league (1.5 PPR), I might grab Patrick Mahomes at the end of round two just to lock in the stack with Kelce.

 Josh Allen finished as the QB3, QB1 and QB2 in points per game over the past three seasons. For three consecutive seasons, Allen has thrown at least 35 passing touchdowns and over 4,000 passing yards. Allen added another 762 yards and seven scores rushing in 2022. He has rushed for at least six touchdowns in all five years of his career. A partially torn UCL in his throwing elbow hindered Allen, which he suffered in Week 9 against the Jets. He averaged four fewer fantasy points per game after the injury.

Jalen Hurts is still developing as a quarterback. Each year he has raised his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt while simultaneously lowering his interception rate from the previous season. With 13 rushing touchdowns, Hurts was the first quarterback in NFL history to have back-to-back seasons with double-digit rushing touchdowns, and the NFL has decided to allow the rugby scrum play for at least another year. The Philadelphia Eagles have a much more difficult schedule this coming season compared to last year, but we could see that lead to more passing. Philadelphia dropped back on 64.8 percent of their first-half plays last season (eighth). In the third quarter, that drop-back rate fell to 14th (58.9 percent) and last in the fourth quarter (38.6 percent) since the Eagles were up big in most games in 2022.

Mahomes has been a top-six scorer in points per game in all five seasons as a starter. With little in the way of pass catchers outside of Kelce, Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) in 2022. Kansas City wide receivers ranked 31st in the NFL in target rate (48.9 percent), and no wide receiver caught more than four touchdown passes.

Lamar Jackson started 2022 with 12 total touchdowns over the opening three games but had just eight total touchdowns throwing and rushing over his final nine games of the season. He has missed 11 games over the past two seasons, but I believe he would have come back for the last two or three games last season had the Baltimore Ravens signed him to a long-term deal prior to the 2022 season. The Ravens signed Jackson to a deal that should keep him in Baltimore for at least the next four seasons. They also hired Todd Monken as their offensive coordinator which should open up the offense.

With the addition of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the offense should be dialed up to the point that Mark Andrews rivals Kelce in production this season.

In 2021, Calvin Ridley was seventh in target share (27.4 percent), fourth in air yard share (40.0 percent), and fifth in route win rate with a dusty, old shell of Matt Ryan at quarterback.

DK Metcalf just turned 25 in December, we have yet to see his peak. He would be in the top tier if the Seahawks hadn’t drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I still think we can expect about 130 to 140 targets, 80 to 90 receptions, 1200 to 1400 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

Rhamondre Stevenson is a true power-back at 231 pounds and a 32.2 BMI. He averaged 5.0 yards-per-carry for 1040 rushing yards in 2022, and he also added 69 receptions for 421 receiving yards. Stevenson could be in the top tier if the Patriots use him as a bell-cow, but this backfield is usually a committee, and they just signed Ezekiel Elliott.

Jonathan Taylor missed six games in 2022 and finished under 5.0 yards per rush (4.5) for the first time in his three-year career. We should expect something closer to his 332 rush, 1811 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns 2021 season if he starts practicing soon. Taylor appears to have dug in on his contract dispute. I think there is a good chance he ends up on a new team or doesn't play to start the season.

Cleveland should see a lot of single-high coverage (eight in the box) with Chubb as the bell cow running back (per Jordan Vanek). Amari Cooper can dominate against single-high and win at the target. We should see an explosive offense with a Deshaun Watson bounce-back.

The allure of the Kellen Moore offense has all Los Angeles Chargers going at premium prices in spite of each player having a down year (except Ekeler). Keenan Allen needs to stay healthy to justify this ranking (and ADP), but at 31, the age cliff is looming, and with hamstring issues for most of 2022, the end could be closer than it appears to most drafters.

Joe Mixon restructured his contract to remain with the Cincinnati Bengals this season. The Bengals' high rate of three-plus wide receiver sets forced defenses to play light boxes. Mixon led the NFL in the percentage of runs against light boxes, but of 41 running backs, he only ranked 36th in YPC, 39th in yards after contact and 34th in explosive run rate.

Travis Etienne finished his first real season with 220 rush attempts, 1125 rushing yards (5.1 YPC), 35 receptions for 316 receiving yards and only five touchdowns. After missing his rookie year with an injury, he lived up to the hype he had as a prospect.

Breece Hall only played seven games in his rookie season before going down with an ACL injury. In those games, he averaged 5.8 yards per carry and was the most efficient rusher in yards after contact per carry, rushing yards over expected per carry, and EPA per carry. You can probably wait until the fifth round to draft Hall, but I believe he is still a top-10 running back by season's end.

Josh Jacobs was offered the franchise tag by the Las Vegas Raiders ($10.1 million). On Saturday, Aug. 26, Jacobs and the Raiders agreed to a one-year deal that could be worth up to $12 million.

Terry McLaurin had a 29.8 percent target share, a 44 percent air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run last season once QB Taylor Heinicke took over from the injured Carson Wentz. McLaurin just needs a quarterback that isn't afraid of his own shadow.

Deebo Samuel is an absolutely phenomenal athlete and ultra-skilled performer, but he plays so aggressively that he is often hurt or injured. Including the playoffs, Samuel finished 2022 with 1,109 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 16 games. His touchdown total returned to expected, and both his yards per touch (8.8) and yards per route run (1.69) fell to career lows. We should hesitate to draft him in the third round, he's only had one season where he averaged more than 13 PPR ppg.

Christian Watson ranked 12th in yards per route run and third in fantasy points per route run. He made big plays down-field, benefitting from a veteran quarterback that was patient and accurate. The buzz out of camp is that he has built a nice connection with Jordan Love, and we actually saw that on the field last year. He seems like a risky pick here, but indications are that he can live up to the hype.

Drake London had a disappointing rookie season as far as fantasy gamers are concerned. Still, London proved to be among the league's best in raw target volume (117), the fifth-highest target share (29.4 percent) and the second-highest target per route run rate (32.4 percent) among wide receivers. Desmond Ridder already looks more accurate than whatever Marcus Mariota was dishing out last season. Over the last five games of the season, London averaged 9.6 targets per game and had three games with 95 or more receiving yards.

Jerry Jeudy has the skills to be a top-12 wide receiver, but the quarterback, system, target competition and injury haven't agreed with him thus far in his career. At 24, this seems like the likely time to turn it on.

Najee Harris had a relatively disappointing season in 2022 falling to RB14 in points per game after a top-5 fantasy season as a rookie. After the heavy usage in 2021, we should have expected some regression in 2022, and we saw 35 fewer carries as well as 35 fewer receptions. With Jaylen Warren impressing in camp, I think we should expect Harris to maintain a similar production to what we saw last season.

Brandon Aiyuk was a first-round pick (25) in 2020. He struggled a bit to get on the field to start his career but has emerged as a top-tier talent since the second half of 2021. Aiyuk set career highs across the board in 2022 in targets (113), receiving yards (1,015) and receiving touchdowns (eight) as the WR15 in fantasy. His only real concern is his team is chock-full of top-tier talent stealing his target share. His 2022 target share for the entire season: was 22.3 percent, in the 14 games with a healthy Samuel was 20.1 percent, and in seven games with a healthy Deebo and McCaffrey, it dropped to 17.9 percent. Aiyuk was only the WR21 through the first seven weeks of the season.

DJ Moore will be 26 years old through the 2023 season, and we have yet to see his peak. I am optimistic a new coaching staff, offensive scheme and possibly a new quarterback can unleash his potential.

After returning from a six-game suspension last season, DeAndre Hopkins averaged 16.9 PPR fantasy points, 10 targets, nearly 80 yards per game and 11.2 yards per reception. At 31, he might only have eight to 12 games left in his career, but he could get you in the playoffs or even win you a championship.

Diontae Johnson's performance disappointed in 2022 because he could not put the ball in the endzone. We should expect to see minimal touchdown regression, but even four to six touchdowns would move his overall scoring into the Jeudy-Higgins range. Johnson has finished top seven in wide receiver targets for three straight years and was targeted on 24 percent or more of his routes in both 2021 and 2022.

Tier 4 – Solid Floors … or Major Upside

Burrow was the QB4 in points per game in the 2022 season (21.7), he had seven top-six scoring weeks in 2022 after just three in 2021.

So many things went wrong in 2022 for Justin Herbert. He suffered a chest fracture in September that he played through and then a torn labrum in January. There were multiple injuries on the offensive line and both of his starting wide receivers missed time. Ekeler led the team in targets (127) followed by Josh Palmer with 107. Palmer ran the most pass routes (618) followed by DeAndre Carter (496). The Chargers let go of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and hired offensive guru Kellen Moore, then used their first-round pick to add WR Quentin Johnston.

Jahmyr Gibbs — Alvin Kamara and McCaffrey didn't even register 30 percent of their team's rushing attempts as rookies. They finished as the RB3 and RB9, respectively.

After being traded to the Minnesota Vikings after Week 7, T.J. Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets in Minnesota and had 60 catches in 10 games.

Chris Godwin has been a top 15 wide receiver in fantasy points per game every year since 2019 and was third in receiving yards after contact last season. Injuries stalled Godwin’s 2022 season, but I expect Godwin to show us why we had him ranked in the top 12 just a couple of years ago.

Mike Williams is a fantastic WR3 in line-up setting leagues, he becomes risky in best ball. Williams plays with a dangerous style, and he has had back issues (injuries) since college. When he is healthy, he is a must-start, especially with the Chargers adding Kellen Moore as OC this season.

J.K. Dobbins has had an injury-riddled start to his career, but he just turned 24 in January. Dobbins is my number one most drafted player. If he stays healthy, I think he will be among the top three in rushing yards this season.

Justin Fields was the best-rushing quarterback in the NFL last season. He rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games, pacing all quarterbacks in fantasy rushing points per game (10.8). Chicago added a top talent at wide receiver in Moore. I believe Moore can provide the type of stability that Josh Allen got when the Buffalo Bills added Stefon Diggs or Jalen Hurts saw when the Eagles added A.J. Brown.

Fields has taken a sack on 13.4 percent of his drop-backs through two seasons, which is the highest rate for a quarterback over his first two seasons since the sack became an official stat. Fields has taken a sack on nearly a third of his pressures while the league average over that span is about 20 percent. Moore should help in this area, getting open quickly and providing Fields with a quick outlet.

Kenneth Walker looked nearly as dominant on the field in his rookie season as he did at Michigan State. He finished last year with three 100-plus-yard rushing performances and had all of Seattle's carries from inside the 5-yard line. The addition of Zach Charbonnet will cap his upside so he dropped three rounds in fantasy drafts. Walker should still be able to give us solid RB2-type numbers throughout the season.

Cam Akers seems to be out of the dog house he was clearly in to start the 2022 season and seems fully recovered from the torn Achilles suffered in the 2021 season. In the last six weeks of the season (Weeks 13-18) Akers was the RB4 in PPR scoring.

Tyler Lockett has been WR17 or better for five straight years. He's scored at least eight touchdowns in every one of those seasons and missed just one game in his eight-year career. He will turn 31 in September, the age cliff is unpredictable and comes suddenly.

Mike Evans' streak of 1,000-yard seasons is likely over this season, but he is a big endzone target that dominates the contested catches.

 Tier 5 - The Upside Players aka “League Winners”

There are definitely more question marks with these players compared to previous tiers, but the upside is what we look for in league-winning players. For one reason or another, these players aren’t appealing in the first five rounds, but now that we get a little deeper, we are just looking for a path to greatness. This is the range where we found Josh Jacobs last season. If you find the player that massively outperforms ADP in this range, you can win your league.

Darren Waller has been skyrocketing up draft boards in the past month. Waller has missed 14 games due to injury over the last two years, but now with the Giants, Waller could see a lot of targets for a team that lacks size at the wide receiver position.

Christian Kirk had a career year at 26 years old, finishing as WR12 in total PPR scoring. While Lawrence and the passing game will likely expand, the addition of Ridley will likely squeeze Kirk's target share.

Smith-Njigba is as safe as they come as a receiver prospect, he's a "chain-mover". Consistent and reliable on third downs and has the ability to create yards after the catch. He was 6-foot-1, 196 pounds, and had 8.29 RAS, 4.52 40 at 21 years old with a 16.1 percent target share at Ohio State. Smith-Njigba suffered a broken bone in his wrist in the preseason game against the Cowboys. He will undergo surgery on Tuesday to repair it. There's still a chance that he'll be ready to play in Week 1, but we are drafting him with the second half of the season in mind anyway.

Rachaad White is a solid pass-catching back, and his new QB Baker Mayfield throws to running backs at the highest rate in the NFL. White's new offensive coordinator just said that White will be a three-down running back.

At 28 we are likely to see some of Aaron Jones' skills diminish and his speed reduce, plus he has A.J. Dillon breathing down his neck. 

Trevor Lawrence had a rough start in his first season and a half, but he finished 2022 with eight QB1 scoring weeks over his final 12 regular season starts. During that span, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. With the addition of Ridley to an already solid passing corps we should see Lawrence live up to his draft hype. 

Over his six starts to end the 2022 season, Deshaun Watson completed a career-low 58.2 percent of his passes. He also had career-low marks in yards per pass attempt (6.5), yards per completion (11.1), and touchdown rate (4.1 percent) while his 2.9 percent interception rate was his highest rate since his rookie season. This was bound to happen after being sidelined for nearly two full seasons, I'm expecting a bounce-back to nearly a career-best season for Watson. 

Javonte Williams is coming off a torn ACL, MCL and PCL. We probably won't be able to start him until the second half of the 2023 season, but he could be a league winner if he can get fully healthy. He avoided the preseason PUP list, but there is also fear of coming back too soon and not quite being able to get to full speed. His injury was brutal, similar to J.K. Dobbins last season. Data predicts a ramp-up period of three to four games, so the second half of this season could be promising.

Dameon Pierce had a great rookie season, falling just shy of 1,000 yards despite missing the final four games with an ankle injury. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but a new coaching staff and Pierce's fourth-round draft capital suggest that his workhorse role could change. Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Texans, presumably to share a decent portion of the touches.

Michael Pittman is immensely undervalued, but it’s difficult to move him up in these rankings because of the players ahead of him and the uncertainty at the quarterback position. I’m sure Anthony Richardson will put up good fantasy numbers as a rookie, but those points will likely come from rushing not passing. Pittman did finish as the WR21 in fantasy points per game last season with sub-par quarterback play so it shouldn’t get any worse.

George Kittle went from a 21.9 percent target share in 2021 to 18.7 percent last year. He drew just 15.6 percent of the 49ers targets in seven games with a healthy Samuel and McCaffrey. He is a boom-or-bust player with league-winning potential, both the Underdog and DraftKings flagship best-ball tournament-winning teams had Kittle rostered. 

Jahan Dotson was the 16th overall pick in the 2022 draft. He had seven touchdown catches in only 12 games played and was WR19 in PPR scoring from Weeks 13-17.

George Pickens had a 14.5 percent target per route run in his rookie season. I was high on Pickens last year because he has that "dawg" in him. He might just like hitting people (blocking) and is just an average receiver.

There are questions about the type of workload James Cook can handle. However, he appears firmly entrenched atop this depth chart thanks to Round 2 draft capital from last season. He could have anywhere from 125 to 250 touches in a potent Bills offense. Damien Harris takes away any chance at consistent goal-line usage.

David Montgomery signed a three-year, $18 million deal with the Detroit Lions this offseason. He has 25 pounds on Gibbs and is the favorite for goal-line work. Montgomery is one of the more consistent veterans, playing behind the best offensive line of his career, with at least 235 touches for 1,074 yards in all four of his NFL seasons.

Kyle Pitts is back on the practice field, but he continues to recover from MCL surgery. This is definitely something to watch, he’s dropped two rounds in ADP over the past week.

Dallas Goedert has averaged 56.7 yards per game and a hyper-efficient 10.6 yards per target over the last two years. He finished fifth in fantasy points per game in 2022, missing five late-season games with a shoulder injury. His target upside could be limited since Goedert has to share targets with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Marquise Brown was the WR6 through the first six weeks of the 2022 season. In the eight games without DeAndre Hopkins, Brown was averaging nearly 12.3 points per game in half-PPR (WR15). He is the favorite to be Arizona's No. 1 wide receiver in 2023 after earning a 24 percent target share in 2022. Still, the shaky quarterback situation has me a bit hesitant to draft him.

Isiah Pacheco had a great season as a rookie seventh-round pick, from Week 10 through Week 17, Pacheco was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Pacheco stood out as the Chiefs made their postseason run.

Jordan Addison is expected to fully take over Adam Thielen's role this season which produced the 2nd most wide receiver routes in the league on a top-10 scoring offense. He's listed at 5-foot-11, 171 pounds, 5.87 RAS, 20 years old, with 219 career receptions, 29 touchdowns and 3134 yards — at two schools: Pittsburgh and USC. 

Gabe Davis didn't live up to the hype last year, finishing as the WR36 in fantasy with an 18.2 percent target share (43rd). He remains Josh Allen's deep threat of choice, ranking 12th in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wideouts. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2022 was Davis’ floor and we get the break-out we were expecting a year ago.

Johnston is an outstanding talent with the size, length, explosiveness and run-after-catch ability to be a No. 1 wideout in the NFL. His skill set will translate to the NFL, and there's a chance that he will be a better pro player than he was in college (the33rdteam.com). 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, 25.3 percent target share at TCU.

Elijah Moore gave us plenty to be optimistic about as a rookie but disappointed last season on a team that seemed to be in disarray. I think the change of scenery will suit him well.

Brandin Cooks was misused for most of last season, he was disgruntled and seemed to do the millennial thing and “quiet quit.” I think the move to Dallas will revive his game.

James Conner was a top fantasy running back when QB Kyler Murray was out, he was a top-10 running back in fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2022, and he now has the least running back competition of his career. Conner ran more routes per game last year than McCaffrey, Barkley and Rhamondre Stevenson.

Alexander Mattison re-signed with the Vikings on a two-year, $6.4 million deal. The consensus seems to think this indicates he will see a very high volume of touches. I don’t think there is anything to indicate he can handle that type of workload.

Courtland Sutton has a chance to rebound after a poor 2022. There were rumors about attempted trades until Tim Patrick went down with a season-ending injury.

Tier 6 – Hodgepodge, Mishmash, Other Assorted Nuts

After signing a four-year, $25.4 million contract this offseason, many analysts expect Miles Sanders to lead this backfield. Still, I expect RB Chuba Hubbard to see a solid number of touches. Sanders just set career highs in carries (259), rushing yards (1,269), and rushing touchdowns (11) with the Eagles. He reunites with running backs coach Duce Staley, who was with him in Philadelphia in 2019 and 2020. Sanders averaged 4.1 targets per game in his first two seasons with Staley before it dropped to 2.8 per game in 2021 and 1.5 targets per game in 2022.

The potential upside for Antonio Gibson is similar to Tony Pollard, but Brian Robinson stands in his way. Regardless of how touches are divided in this backfield, Gibson should greatly benefit in the passing game from the departure of JD McKissic.

As usual, we cannot believe anything Pete Carroll says about his players. Charbonnet’s “indefinite” shoulder injury lasted two days. Charbonnet is good at just about everything a running back does, he doesn’t have Walker’s explosive, break-away ability, but is equal or better at just about everything else.

The Eagles traded during the NFL draft for D'Andre Swift, and if he leaves after this season, the Eagles likely would get back a compensatory draft pick in 2025 — the year in which they traded a fourth-round pick to Detroit for Swift. Many have Swift projected as the top fantasy option in this Philadelphia backfield, with about 11 carries and five receptions per game, but he isn't much better than Kenneth Gainwell. I see a full-blown committee here, and I’ve been skipping Swift and targeting Rashaad Penny and Gainwell later.

From Week 6 onward, Brian Robinson averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34), ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged more than 70 rushing yards per game.

Michael Thomas, 29, hasn't been on the field much in the past two seasons. He is expected to be at full strength for the start of the season, but given the nature of his foot/ankle issues, we will want Thomas to be our WR5.

After a promising rookie season in which he had 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, Pat Freiermuth followed that up with 98 targets and finished with 63 catches for 732 yards but only scored two touchdowns last season. The whole offense should regress to league average and score some passing touchdowns.

Evan Engram is coming off a season that saw him achieve career-highs in receptions and yards with 73 and 766 respectively. With the addition of Ridley, Engram should see fewer targets but will likely still be a big part of the passing game.

David Njoku has yet to live up to expectations but showed some signs of life last year with 58 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. The addition of Watson at quarterback should propel Njoku to the next level. 

In the two games that Khalil Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, he averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert has some competition for touches in this backfield, but camp reports sound like Herbert has established himself as the primary back. 

From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried teammate Aaron Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to five while splitting snaps exactly 50/50.

Kamara is only suspended for three games, but I’m not sure he has anything left in the tank. I prefer drafting rookie Kendre Miller several rounds later. 

Rashod Bateman is looking like he’ll be back on the field soon. Still, he missed mandatory minicamp and all of camp so far this summer after getting a cortisone shot in the foot in June following surgery to repair a Lisfranc foot injury in November.

Jakobi Meyers signed a three-year, $33 million deal with the Raiders. Myers has talent, he just needs a more explosive offense and a consistent quarterback.

Nico Collins' 2022 season ended early after being placed on season-ending IR with a foot injury. The 24-year-old totaled 481 yards and two touchdowns on 37 receptions in 10 games prior to the injury. He appears to be the primary target in the wide receiver corps this season and could be in line for close to 100 targets. 

Skyy Moore was disappointing in his rookie season but looks to have established himself as the replacement for Juju Smith-Schuster who had 101 targets last season. 

Samaje Perine signed a two-year, $7.5 million deal with the Denver Broncos. Likely going to start the first half of the season until Williams gets up to full speed. Even with Williams on the field, Sean Payton is known for using multiple backs and they usually all have fantasy value. Perine may lack some big-play upside, but at his ADP he is an incredible value.

Gainwell is my most rostered player. He is in a backfield with the most injury-prone running back in the NFL and the most over-hyped running back. Earlier in the summer Gainwell was being drafted in the 15th round so you can wait to get him at a value. Still, he has been creeping up in ADP so if you’re in need of a running back to propel you through the second half of the season have no fear in grabbing him in the ninth or 10th round. 

Penny signed a one-year, $1.4 million deal with the Eagles. When Penny is on the field, he is a solid starter, but he truly defines "injury-prone."

I want to be higher than the consensus on Zay Jones. Jones was a late-round/waiver-wire league winner last season, he is a very talented receiver who struggled with mental health issues his first few years in the NFL. His targets may be reduced by the addition of Ridley, but I think Christian Kirk takes a harder hit on targets than Jones. Kirk will be moved into the slot and likely only on the field in three wide receiver sets. Jones should remain on the field in two wide receiver sets as the Z receiver. 

Odell Beckham Jr. is worth considering as a starter in your fantasy line-up. He has had plenty of time to heal from his injury in the 2022 Super Bowl and enters the season with a chip on his shoulder. Age and injury are always a factor for the season, but week-to-week Beckham appears to be a solid flex start. 

The Fringe Quarterbacks

I have this group of quarterbacks together because they can be drafted by personal preference. The top quarterbacks you will see ranked in the first six rounds are clearly separated from this group. In the typical home league, there will only be 14 rounds of position players so you only need to draft one quarterback. Many people will double up in this range, but I don’t see the need to do that with the likelihood that there will be eight to 20 quarterbacks available on waivers at any time. 

Fantasy managers should draft Tagovailoa as the QB10 when he is healthy, but he will be lower in my final rankings because he is likely to miss at least a few games.

Daniel Jones finished fifth among quarterbacks in rushing yards last season with 708. The New York Giants went out of their way to stack speed in their wide receiver group this offseason while trading for dynamic tight end Waller.

Geno Smith finished 10th in passing yards and sixth in passing touchdowns per game. On the ground, he was eighth in rushing yards per game. Overall, he finished eighth in fantasy points per game.

Dak Prescott has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, but prior to that, he averaged 292 passing yards per game. His supporting cast is strong, with a rock-solid offensive line, three good receivers and the dynamic Tony Pollard in the backfield.

Anthony Richardson’s closest comparable athlete is Derrick Henry, who can throw the ball well. If I draft him, I like to have him paired with someone else who can start the first few weeks.

Kirk Cousins was tied for fifth with 29 touchdown passes last season and was fourth in the NFL with 4,547 passing yards. The Vikings replaced aging veteran Thielen with first-round WR Addison in the NFL draft, and he will now have a full season with Hockenson. Cousins is perennially underrated because he doesn’t run, but if your league has six-point passing touchdowns Cousins is worth drafting. 

Tier 7 – Get Your Guys

The double-digit rounds are where drafts become highly unpredictable. It makes sense because these are the players who are left for dust or need opportunities they haven’t earned yet.  We are also looking to balance our rosters a bit so it is very common to see people reach a round or even two rounds of ADP to get “their guy” on the roster.

Lot of people transitioning from Best Ball drafts to Managed League drafts over the next month.

The differences are nuanced, but important.

One example: In later rounds of a managed draft I want to take huge swings at ceilings. If it doesn't work, simply drop the player and…

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 4, 2023

De'Von Achane seems to fit the Miami Dolphins offense perfectly, he’s lightning fast (4.32 40-time), but he also weighed in at 188 pounds and no running back under 190 pounds has had more than 100 carries in a season. He will likely be their primary pass-catching back.

Jameson Williams probably would have been the top wide receiver in the 2022 draft had he not gotten injured late in the previous season. He will be suspended for the first six games, but the Lions finish with 10 games in a dome, and Williams will be the offense’s main deep threat. Williams could be a league winner, especially in playoff formats.

Tyjae Spears had a great season in 2022 for Tulane, rushing for 1,581 yards and nineteen touchdowns. While also adding 22 receptions for 256 yards and two receiving touchdowns.  Spears seems to have raised his stock at the Senior Bowl, says Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda, "From the first day of practice, scouts could see Spears was the real deal, and the game film was not fraudulent. His running style is superb, as is his vision, quickness, and speed." Spears has been a riser with an impressive Combine and Senior Bowl week and has the tape to back that up. Durability is the biggest question mark."

Dalton Kincaid has some of the best hands we've ever seen from a tight end prospect. Only two drops on 108 catchable last two seasons, including 16 of 27 in contested situations.

Roschon Johnson was stuck behind Bijan Robinson on the depth chart at Texas, but he still had a 6.1 percent target share and 12.7 percent dominator despite the limited usage. A big body and fresh legs sound appealing to me.

Zamir White is still a work in progress as a receiver, but he’s improved as a pass blocker and looks to be far more decisive as a ball carrier.

Jalin Hyatt led the entire SEC in man-coverage targets last season, zero of them were contested. He is fast. He’s also been impressing in Giants camp, and it appears as though he will see a significant snap share. 

Sam LaPorta accounted for 30.4 percent of the Iowa receptions, 28.1 percent of the targets, and 32 percent of the receiving yards. People around the league like LaPorta. Says one veteran scout: "If you need him to block an edge rusher, he'll do that. He can pretty much chip anyone. He runs clean routes, he catches with his hands. He'll play pro football for a decade," per Jordan Schultz.

The New Orleans Saints and TE Juwan Johnson have agreed to a new contract that will keep Johnson under club control through 2024. I expect Johnson to emerge as a top-10 tight end if Derek Carr can even be league-average. 

Kicker and DST

I do not include K and DST in my top 200 because I prefer to play in leagues that don’t include them. I realize most of you do so I recommend drafting them in this range (Round 14,15,16) or a little later if you're in deeper drafts.

Getting a high-end kicker is important, but you never want to sacrifice a value pick at a flex position. Defenses are volatile, and most people jump on the highest-ranked DST but get frustrated and drop them if they don’t put up big points in the first few weeks. When ranking DST for your draft we only want to look at the first four games, we can easily stream DST by Week 5.

 Tier 8 – The Dart-Throws

There are professional dart throwers, and there’s the drunk at the bar who has to wear an eye patch for the rest of his life. Sometimes these players hit, but more often than not they don’t give us more than a game or two of fantasy value.

Taysom Hill was the TE3 in standard, TE5 in half and TE9 in PPR last season, but he is very boom-bust, there is no way to tell when he will have a big week and could be a total zero, plus he’s getting older.

Elliott could be a bust, or he could be 2016 LeGarrette Blount. I haven’t been drafting him, and it will likely burn me. 

Michael Mayer had all of the hype going into the NFL Draft in what seems to be a pretty deep tight end class: 6-foot-6, 235 pounds, 22 years old, 35.8 percent college dominator, 20.2 breakout age, out of Notre Dame.

Luke Musgrave entered the season on the Mackey watch list, but a knee injury cut his senior season to only two games. In those two games, he went: 6-89-1 and 5-80-0. He appears to be the starting tight end in Green Bay. 

Randy Moss (HOF wide receiver) reportedly thinks Cedric Tillman is the “best young receiver” to enter the NFL in the past 15 years. Clearly, Moss isn’t the best talent evaluator, but he excels at being a hype man. Tillman has reportedly continued to “stand out” throughout training camp as well.

Elijah Higgins (wide receiver on most formats) could put Mike Gesicki on the bench.

Isaiah Spiller and RB Joshua Kelley have been splitting reps pretty evenly behind Ekeler, according to Jared Smola of The Athletic. 

Make sure you join our FREE Discord channel for updates and adjustments. We will drop a cheat sheet in Discord for best ball and regular re-draft leagues. In season, we’ll drop player prop bets each week, along with DFS showdown AMAs and start-sit help. You will also get the first notification of any new articles coming out from our amazing team.

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Kev Wheeler

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Kev Wheeler is a former high school baseball and football coach who has been a fantasy football addict for more than 25 years. As a coach, Wheeler's teams accomplished five county and two regional championships. Wheeler has translated his on-field success to the fantasy football arena.